According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the roller coaster trend of the domestic dimethyl ether market in 2023 was characterized by a volatile decline in the first half of the year, followed by an initial rise followed by a decline in the second half, with an overall decline. On January 1st, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan Province was 4450 yuan/ton, and on December 31st, the average price of dimethyl ether was 3775 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 15.17%.

Market Review

The dimethyl ether market in 2023 was not satisfactory due to its own supply and demand and cost factors. In January, the domestic dimethyl ether market steadily rose, with a slight increase mainly driven by the Henan market for dimethyl ether. Starting from the beginning of the month, the downstream stage replenishment began, and the atmosphere of on-site transactions became stronger. The low inventory of dimethyl ether enterprises actively pushed up. As the Spring Festival approaches, the peak of downstream restocking has passed, and prices have stopped rising and stabilized. Starting from February, due to the dual negative effects of cost and demand, the dimethyl ether market entered a downward trend, fluctuating all the way down to the end of May. In early June, the price of raw material methanol stopped falling and rose, and cost support gradually strengthened. Dimethyl ether took advantage of the situation and began to rebound from the bottom. Purchasing and sales improved, and the atmosphere gradually warmed up. In the future, the downstream market entered the peak season of gold, silver, and ten demand, and the price increase continued until mid October. Subsequently, due to the increase in factory operating load in the early stage and the increase in market supply after the peak demand season, the demand side returned to a weak position, and the price of dimethyl ether rose and then fell back to the end of the year.

As a direct upstream methanol of dimethyl ether, the upstream methanol showed a V-shaped trend in 2023. In the first half of the year, the market continued to decline, and under the combined influence of lower than expected macro support, loose costs, and fundamental supply-demand contradictions, the domestic methanol market fluctuated and declined. The bottom of the second half of the year rebounded, coal prices remained stable with some increases, port olefin facilities gradually started operating, domestic demand recovered, overall demand improved, supply recovery fell short of expectations, macro improvement, and the market showed a fluctuating upward trend. Subsequently, the domestic market presented a situation of strong supply and demand, with no prominent fundamental contradictions, and the market entered a stalemate and consolidation stage in the fourth quarter.

Future Market Forecast

From the trend of dimethyl ether in the past three years, there is no bright spot in the dimethyl ether market in 2023, and the price has been lower than in previous years since November. From the perspective of supply and demand in the domestic dimethyl ether market, the current production capacity of dimethyl ether is 7.5 million tons. However, in 2023, the production was less than 1 million tons, and the production has been decreasing year by year, with a significant decline, indicating a weak demand side. From a cost perspective, methanol, as the main raw material for dimethyl ether, its price fluctuations will directly affect the cost of dimethyl ether. Self use enterprises adopt production reduction and pressure reduction measures, while external methanol enterprises are under sales pressure, resulting in long-term negative profit growth in 2023. In the short term, cost support is relatively weak, and there is insufficient action on dimethyl ether. Based on a comprehensive analysis of cost, supply and demand, and policy, the supply and demand of the dimethyl ether market and cost pressures will continue to rise in 2024. It is expected that the price center of dimethyl ether may continue to decline compared to 2023, but due to the current near bottom of dimethyl ether prices, the expected decline is relatively controllable. Taking the Henan market as an example, it may fluctuate within the range of 3500-4500 yuan/ton in 2024, with a high-frequency fluctuation range of 4300-4500 yuan/ton. It is expected that the market price will have a low point in the first quarter and a high point in the third quarter.

The market for styrene butadiene rubber in December fell first and then rose. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of December 29th, the price of butadiene benzene 1502 was at 12391 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.64% from 11841 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the lowest point in the cycle was 11458 yuan/ton. The supply of styrene butadiene rubber in December was loose in the early stage and slightly tight at the end of the month; Downstream tire production has slightly declined due to environmental factors, and market transactions have been lackluster; The raw material butadiene experienced a significant decline in the early stage and a slight rebound at the end of the month, while the price of styrene slightly increased. The cost support for butadiene styrene rubber was weak. At the beginning of the month, the butadiene rubber market was mainly affected by a sharp drop in butadiene prices and a loose supply side, resulting in weak prices; At the end of the month, on the one hand, the price of raw material butadiene rebounded, while the price of styrene slightly increased. In addition, due to the negative impact of the Qilu plant, the short-term supply side of the market tightened, stimulating the price of butadiene styrene rubber to rise.

In December, the supply of styrene butadiene rubber was initially loose, but in the latter half of the month, it was slightly tightened due to the negative impact of the Qilu plant.

In December, the price of butadiene, a raw material for styrene butadiene rubber, fell significantly in the early stage and rebounded slightly at the end of the month, while the price of styrene rose slightly. The cost support for styrene butadiene rubber was weak.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of December 29th, the price of butadiene was 8575 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.03% from 9125 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the low point in the cycle was 8058 yuan/ton; As of December 29th, the price of styrene was 8560 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.90% from 8400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The natural rubber market rose in December, providing slight support for styrene butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 29th, the price was 13060 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.00% from 12680 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the lowest point in the cycle was 12300 yuan/ton.

Demand side: In December, tire production remained stable in the early stage and decreased in the later stage due to factors such as environmental protection and off-season, which weakened the support for rubber demand at the end of the month. It is understood that as of late December 2023, the operating load of all steel tires in rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region was 4.90%; The operating load of semi steel tires in domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.8%.

Market forecast: Business Society analysts believe that currently, the supply of styrene butadiene rubber is tight in the short term, with some support from the cost side, but the demand side is weak. It is expected that the price of styrene butadiene rubber will fluctuate slightly and fall slightly in the later stage as speculation weakens.

The market situation of trichloromethane in December fell first and then rose. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of December 29th, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2070 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.16% from 2066 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the low point in the cycle was 2000 yuan/ton. The start of domestic methane chloride plants in December was affected by the shutdown of some enterprises, resulting in a decrease in the supply of trichloromethane; There is no significant positive support for downstream refrigerant demand, and refrigerant production is basically stable. In the second half of the month, some enterprises replenished their inventory, and the demand for trichloromethane was slightly supported, resulting in a slight rebound in prices.

The domestic methane chloride plant operation in December decreased compared to November.

In December, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated and decreased, while the price of liquid chlorine continued to decline. The cost support for trichloromethane weakened. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of December 29th, the spot price of methanol was 2450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.20% from the beginning of the month’s 2505 yuan/ton, with a high point of 2505 yuan/ton and a low point of 2420 yuan/ton during the cycle; At the end of December, the price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region dropped significantly at -100 yuan/ton.

Downstream refrigerant demand is weak, and production remains stable at a low level. In the second half of the month, some enterprises replenish their inventory in small quantities, which provides some support for trichloromethane. In 2023, the total production quota for R22 will be reduced by 19% to 181800 tons, and overall support for the demand for trichloromethane will weaken in the medium to long term. The quota for 2024 has not been released, but it has little impact on the production schedule of refrigerant manufacturers.

The methane chloride data analyst from Business Society believes that demand for trichloromethane is still weak in the face of support, coupled with lower raw material prices, and it is expected that the trichloromethane market will narrow in the short term. From a medium to long term perspective, under the condition of no strong cost support, the market for trichloromethane will basically show a trend of range fluctuation and consolidation due to demand constraints.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price decline of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate did not decrease in December. On December 28th, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 94000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.82% compared to the average price of 123400 yuan/ton on December 1st. On December 28th, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 103000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.13% compared to the average price of 134000 yuan/ton on December 1st.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that the price of lithium carbonate remained in a continuous downward trend in early December, and lithium carbonate futures prices continued to decline for several consecutive days until the 13th when there was a rebound. In terms of supply, with the release of goods by large salt lake factories, the market has a relatively sufficient supply of spot goods. In addition, Zhiyi’s export of lithium carbonate to domestic markets in October has recently arrived in Hong Kong, bringing about an increase in market supply in the short term. Most lithium salt factories in the market still rely on long-term cooperative shipments, and trading enterprises continue to be in a strategy of selling individual orders at low prices.

In terms of demand, downstream positive electrode material companies are still in a low mood for purchasing goods, only replenishing inventory sporadically when prices are low. Due to the continuous downward trend in prices, downstream positive electrode material companies are also relatively cautious in their willingness to purchase loose orders. However, battery cell companies are gradually cutting orders and reducing the quantity of positive electrode materials, resulting in a significant reduction in the overall purchasing volume of the positive electrode industry. There are few zero order transactions, and the pace of long-term cooperative delivery is also gradually slowing down. This has led to significant pressure on some salt companies to ship, and poor market expectations for future demand, resulting in a downward trend in the overall market quotation and transaction focus.

In late December, the decline in lithium carbonate prices slowed down slightly. In terms of supply, the domestic lithium carbonate market is still dominated by long-term transactions. However, towards the end of the year, some lithium salt companies still have shipping ideas due to inventory pressure, and prices are still being lowered. Some lithium salt companies have a strong attitude of price support. The supply of lithium carbonate is still sufficient, and major lithium salt enterprises maintain stable production. Customs data shows that about 17000 tons of lithium carbonate were imported in November, and the domestic supply of lithium carbonate is still high in the short term.

In terms of demand, in late December, there was no increase in orders from positive electrode material companies, and the mentality of reducing raw material inventory before the year is still present. The general strategy of long order procurement is maintained, and their target price for bulk order procurement is relatively low. Under the current price situation, there is little willingness to purchase bulk orders. The reduction of orders for positive electrode materials at the battery cell end needs to be gradually implemented, and it is highly likely that the production of ternary and iron lithium will continue to decline in January. The production of electrolyte is gradually decreasing, so the demand for downstream and terminal products has become weak, which has become the norm.

The lithium hydroxide market continued to decline, with a weak trend in the upstream spodumene concentrate market during the month. The price of lithium carbonate weakened, and the cost side continued to decline. The downstream demand for high nickel materials on the demand side was insufficient, and the market shipments were average. Merchants carefully followed up on low prices when receiving goods. The lithium hydroxide market transactions were mainly long-term cooperative orders, and the atmosphere in the spot market was light. Holders stimulated orders at low prices, and the focus of lithium hydroxide negotiations weakened.

The downstream price of lithium iron phosphate continues to decline, and on the cost side, the prices of main raw materials lithium salts and iron phosphate continue to decline, leading to a decrease in the production cost of iron lithium materials. On the supply side, iron and lithium production enterprises produce on demand, resulting in serious production cuts and shutdowns; Some iron lithium enterprises still have high inventory and prioritize destocking, but the pace of destocking is relatively slow. The demand for demand side, power side, and energy storage side has decreased, and the finished battery cells are still being taken out of stock, resulting in a significant reduction in the purchase of lithium iron phosphate.

In terms of futures, the price of lithium carbonate futures in December can be described as a sharp rise and fall. Lithium carbonate futures have fallen on 17 out of the past 18 trading days, and hit the limit on November 22, November 27, and December 5, respectively. Futures prices have repeatedly hit new lows on the market. On December 7th and 13th, the price of lithium carbonate futures hit the limit up again. On December 28th, the opening price of the LC2407 contract for lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 105600 yuan/ton, the highest price was 107350 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 106550 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.42%. The trading volume was 153800 lots and the position was 152061 lots.

According to lithium carbonate analysts from Business Society, the current spot market for lithium carbonate is still in a state of oversupply. However, after experiencing a significant decline in the early stages, some manufacturers have become increasingly bullish. As the end of the month approaches, the decline in lithium salt prices has slowed down. In addition, the futures market has rebounded, and downstream positive electrode materials have a strong wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that lithium carbonate prices will remain weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring of commodity data, the price of yellow phosphorus fell significantly in December, and overall, the market price of yellow phosphorus has decreased. On December 1st, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 25729.33 yuan/ton, and on December 27th, it was 22962.67 yuan/ton. The monthly price has decreased by 10.75%.

2、 Market analysis

The price of yellow phosphorus fell significantly in December, and the overall trading situation in the yellow phosphorus market was light. In the first half of the year, the downstream market was relatively weak and the enthusiasm for purchasing goods was low. Downstream enterprises continued to be cautious in their procurement and made purchases at lower prices. As a result, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market gradually decreased. In the middle of the month, yellow phosphorus enterprises are cautious in their quotations, issuing more preliminary orders and not quoting external prices for new orders. The price of yellow phosphorus in the market is relatively chaotic, with both high-end and low-end prices coexisting. In the latter half of the year, the market operating rate has decreased, and some yellow phosphorus enterprises have suspended external quotations. However, downstream demand is poor, prices are lowered for procurement, and traders and downstream buyers are less proactive in purchasing goods. The center of gravity of the on-site market continues to decline. As of now, the market quotation in Sichuan region is mostly around 23000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of phosphate ore, according to data monitoring by Business Society, as of December 27, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 1034 yuan/ton. Compared with December 1, 2023 (reference price of phosphate ore is 1024 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.90%. At present, the trading atmosphere inside the phosphate ore field is mild, and the supply on site is still tight. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. As the end of the year approaches, some mining companies are operating at a low level. The phosphate ore data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the overall domestic phosphate ore market situation will remain stable, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the impact of factors such as demand and downstream shipments.

In terms of coke, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the market price of coke increased in December 2023. The average price of coke on December 1st was 2328.33 yuan/ton, and on December 27th it was 2430 yuan/ton. The monthly price increased by 4.37%. In December, the atmosphere in the coke market was relatively strong, and the gaming mentality of coke steel remained strong. On the supply side, the price of coking coal has declined this week, leading to a decrease in the cost of entering the furnace for coking enterprises. Some enterprises have increased production, and the comprehensive operating rate has slightly rebounded compared to last week. With the improvement of transportation conditions in various regions, the shipment of coke has improved, and the inventory in coking enterprises has significantly declined. The mentality of coking enterprises is still acceptable. In terms of demand, the enthusiasm for finished products is low during the off-season, and some steel mills have maintenance plans. The overall operating rate has declined, and coke needs to be replenished according to demand. Hard demand support still exists. Under the supply and demand game mentality in the future, it is expected that the coke market will maintain a relatively stable operation in the short term.

In terms of phosphoric acid, according to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference price of phosphoric acid on December 1st was 7000 yuan/ton, and the average price on December 27th was 6600 yuan/ton. The price for the month decreased by 5.71%. Business Society’s phosphoric acid analyst believes that the recent trend of the phosphoric acid market has been downward. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus continues to decline, with insufficient cost support. The terminal demand is weak, and downstream procurement is essential. The market is mainly bearish. Under the influence of bearish factors, it is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market prices will be mainly weak.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst from the Chemical Branch of Shengyishe believes that the market price of yellow phosphorus fell significantly in December. At present, the market trading situation is light and the demand is not good. Downstream low-priced procurement, business owners are more cautious and cautious in purchasing. Overall, it is expected that the market price of yellow phosphorus will remain stable and operate in the short term, with actual transactions being discussed on a single basis.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market for imported potassium chloride remained stable this week, with a price of 3080.00 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 20.77%. On December 25th, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 97.78, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 44.00% from the highest point in the cycle of 174.60 points (2022-06-21), and an increase of 67.86% from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-03-01 present)

2、 Market analysis

The prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride distributors have remained stable this week. The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is around 2860-2900 yuan/ton, and the self raised price of 62% white potassium at the port is around 2880-2900 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong particles at the port is around 2950-3050 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2750-2800 yuan/ton.

From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the price of potassium carbonate remained stable this week at 7530.00 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 17.25% over the weekend. This week, the market price of potassium nitrate remained stable at 5450.00 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.02% over the weekend. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride is consolidating at a low level, and downstream customers have weakened their demand for potassium chloride.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In late December, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and fall narrowly, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge are temporarily stable. The downstream market of potassium chloride is consolidating at a low level, with weakened downstream demand and a focus on essential procurement. The circulation of potassium chloride is tight, and the supply of goods at the port has slightly increased. Business Society’s potassium chloride analyst believes that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic ABS market has continued to be weak, with spot prices of various brands fluctuating. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 25th, the average price of ABS sample products was 10662.5 yuan/ton, with a decrease of -4.26% from the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: In the early stage, the domestic ABS industry had a high load, but recently, due to supply pressure, some enterprises have seen a decrease in load. But the decline in average operating rate is narrow, and the current industry load is still above 73%. The production of the enterprise is relatively stable, and the inventory position has decreased due to some new contracts. The improvement of the company’s loss situation is limited, and the supply pressure is relatively high. The supply side’s drag on the spot market continues.

In terms of raw materials, the recent trend of ABS upstream three materials is still good, with the acrylonitrile market basically stabilizing. The price of raw materials remains stable with minor fluctuations, and the cost support for acrylonitrile is average; The main downstream construction is still stable, and the load of the acrylonitrile unit is horizontal. The on-site quotation is running smoothly.

After the recent decline in the domestic butadiene market, it has been consolidating and fluctuating. As the price of butadiene drops to a relatively low level, some downstream orders are buying on dips, and the overall market focus has shifted upwards. It is expected that the butadiene market will tend to be strong in the short term, with consolidation being the main trend.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the recent price increase in the styrene market has resulted in a sideways trend. The current international shipping capacity is declining, and due to its impact, various bulk commodities upstream of styrene are strengthening, with increased cost support. In addition, due to the depletion of on-site supply in the early stage, the current spot situation is tight, and the downstream market is still acceptable. The merchant’s offer is firm.

In terms of demand: In recent times, downstream factories, including the home appliance industry, have shown a sustained lack of enthusiasm for stocking up on ABS’s main terminals. The main logic revolves around digesting existing inventory. Enterprises tend to maintain production in their procurement operations, making it difficult to increase demand. Mid stream traders have a heavy wait-and-see attitude and low willingness to purchase goods, resulting in weak demand and dragging down the spot market.

Future Market Forecast

Last week, the overall performance of the upstream three materials of ABS was still good, and the support for the cost side of ABS rebounded. The petrochemical plant has experienced a narrow decline in production, with limited improvement in supply pressure. The demand side consumption is poor, and merchants have weak confidence in the future market. The easing of the main contradiction between supply and demand in the market is not obvious, and the ABS market may still have downward momentum. It is recommended to closely monitor the adjustment of supply side production capacity.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from December 15th to 22nd, the domestic ethanol price remained at 6800 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 0.37% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.53%. At present, the supply and demand of the domestic ethanol market are weak and horizontal, with some regions experiencing recovery of equipment and average demand. In the short term, the domestic ethanol market is mainly weak and consolidating.

On the cost side, as we enter mid December, the market volume of corn in the production areas continues to increase, and the weak corn prices have led to an increase in the intention of grain trading entities to liquidate their exports. In addition, the new season of corn production has once again increased, and the domestic corn market supply has become more relaxed. Ports and deep processing corn inventories are relatively sufficient. Downstream trading entities have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and feed demand continues to be weak. Under the pressure of strong market supply and weak demand, The domestic corn market prices continue to be weak. The cost side of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side, there is a significant difference in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions, with 38.54% operating in East China and 91.04% operating in Northeast China; The operating rate in South China and Southwest China is 19.65%; Short term domestic ethanol production and stable food supply in Northeast China. There is sufficient ethanol supply in the East China region. Coal based ethanol supply is stable. The supply side of ethanol is affected by bearish factors.

On the demand side, most ethyl acetate factories maintain normal production status. The ethyl acetate project in Anhui region is awaiting production. Baijiu just needs to be purchased. The short-term demand for ethanol is mixed.

In the future market forecast, the cost is bearish, and the transportation and delivery situation between regions in terms of supply and demand are greatly affected by weather factors. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market situation may be dominated by weak consolidation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, in 2023, the hydrogen peroxide market fluctuated greatly, experiencing three rounds of roller coaster market, with the market rising and falling. The highest point of the roller coaster market was in September, and it reached its highest point on September 20th, with the highest price reaching 2200 yuan/ton, an increase of over 200% compared to early January. The lowest price is in January, with a minimum price of 720 yuan/ton.

The first round of roller coaster market: From January to April, in the first quarter, the hydrogen peroxide market has been oscillating and rising, with an increase of over 20%. The hydrogen peroxide market began to plummet in April, with an overall decline of over 15%.

After New Year’s Day, the Spring Festival is approaching, and the hydrogen peroxide terminal industry has gradually started stocking up. In addition, some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have shut down for maintenance, leading to tight supply and multiple positive factors supporting the hydrogen peroxide market. The hydrogen peroxide market has bottomed out and rebounded, ushering in an upward trend. Since March, the demand for the terminal paper printing industry has increased, and the quantity of hydrogen peroxide purchased is still acceptable. The market continues to rise.

Yuan/ton, an increase of over 200% compared to early January. The lowest price is in January, with a minimum price of 720 yuan/ton.

Starting from April, the demand for terminal paper printing industry has weakened, and the quantity of purchased hydrogen peroxide has decreased. The transaction volume in the hydrogen peroxide market is average. In addition, some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have reopened their equipment, resulting in an increase in hydrogen peroxide supply and a continuous decline in prices, with a monthly decline of 15.59%.

The second round of roller coaster market: From May to June, in the first half of May, the hydrogen peroxide market continued to rise, with an increase of over 35%. Starting from the second half of the month, the hydrogen peroxide market started to plummet from a high platform, with a fluctuating downward trend and an overall decline of over 21%.

During the May Day holiday, an accident occurred in the hydrogen peroxide plant of Luxi Chemical, and the hydrogen peroxide plant of Jiantao in Hengyang, Hunan was shut down, resulting in a tense supply of hydrogen peroxide in the market. After the holiday, hydrogen peroxide manufacturers saw a significant increase in their quotations, rising by half a month or 35.14%.

Starting from the second half of May, the bullish factors were digested, and the demand for hydrogen peroxide in the market weakened, leading to a decline in the hydrogen peroxide market. Entering June, terminal demand is weak, supply is loose, hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have weak confidence in price support, and the overall performance of hydrogen peroxide is still weak. From May 16th to June, the overall hydrogen peroxide market fell by 21.67%.

The third round of roller coaster market: From July to December, the overall hydrogen peroxide market fluctuated and rose in the third quarter, with the increase continuously expanding in September. Throughout the third quarter, the hydrogen peroxide market rose by over 171%. After the National Day holiday, hydrogen peroxide opened a downward channel, and the price continuously bottomed out, dropping to the end of the year, with an overall decline of over 60%. Starting from July, domestic hydrogen peroxide faucet enterprises have not yet started shutdown, market supply is tight, terminal procurement demand has increased, and the hydrogen peroxide market has continued to rise sharply, rising until the end of September. The highest price of hydrogen peroxide has risen to 2200 yuan/ton, and throughout the third quarter, the hydrogen peroxide market has risen by more than 171%.

After the National Day holiday, the stock market in the terminal printing and papermaking industry came to an end, and demand fell. In addition, the market acceptance of high priced hydrogen peroxide decreased, and the price of hydrogen peroxide dropped significantly. It continued to decline until the end of the year, with the average market price dropping to 830 yuan/ton, a drop of over 60%.

How will the hydrogen peroxide market be interpreted in 2024?

Supply side: In 2023, the hydrogen peroxide production capacity has exceeded 26 million tons, and some enterprises have started production by the end of the year. Among them, Hubei Sanning Chemical is expected to build a 560000 ton/year hydrogen peroxide (50%) device by the end of the year, Sinopec Baling Petrochemical’s 300000 ton/year hydrogen peroxide device is expected to be put into operation by the end of the year, and Yaxing Chemical’s hydrogen peroxide device has been completed and put into trial operation. Due to the construction of the new device, the production capacity is still in the climbing stage. By 2024, these new production capacities will all be produced, and hydrogen peroxide production will also increase significantly. The situation of oversupply is still present.

Demand side: In 2023, the paper market will weaken, while the performance of the caprolactam market is still good. The overall boosting effect of the printing and paper industry on the hydrogen peroxide market is limited. By 2024, the demand for hydrogen peroxide in the printing and paper industries has a certain periodicity, and it is difficult to achieve a significant overall increase. The chemical caprolactam also has limited support for the hydrogen peroxide market. From the demand side, it is difficult to see a significant increase in the hydrogen peroxide market in 2024.

Business Society Chemical Analyst believes that the sharp rise in hydrogen peroxide market in 2023 is mainly due to supply side shutdown maintenance and some large factories experiencing malfunctions. In 2024, there is still pressure on the supply side, and there are no favorable factors on the demand side. The hydrogen peroxide market may find it difficult to replicate the highest price in 2023, and the overall weak operation is the main trend.

In December, the domestic bisphenol A market mainly experienced a decline. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market price of bisphenol A was reported at 10137 yuan/ton on December 1st, and 9625 yuan/ton on December 18th, a decrease of 5.06%. The main reason for the continuous decline of bisphenol A in this round is that there are many device restarts; The second is the production of new devices, with sufficient supply; Thirdly, demand remains sluggish. Specifically:

Region/ Price on December 1st/ Price on December 18th/ Decline

East China region/ 10200./9650./550

Shandong region/ 10100./9550./550

The supply side is loose in December. There were many maintenance and unplanned parking devices in November, but they gradually resumed in December. There are many new devices added in December, and the market expects an increase in supply. The supply side is loose. Recently, delivery contracts for bisphenol A factories have been the main focus, and spot trading in the market has been flat. As of now, the negotiated price for bisphenol A in the market has reached 9600-9700 yuan/ton.

From a cost perspective, the dual raw materials are currently fluctuating at a low level after a decline in the early stage, with fluctuations ranging from 150 to 250 yuan/ton in December, with relatively small fluctuations. The negotiated price of phenol in the East China region is between 7750 to 7850 yuan/ton, while the mainstream negotiated price of acetone in the East China region is 6800 yuan/ton. The average cost of bisphenol A fluctuates between 10000 to 10500 yuan/ton. Currently, the theoretical value of the bisphenol A factory is in a loss making state, It is expected that the cost range of bisphenol A will fluctuate in late December.

The demand for the two downstream products is weak, with insufficient transactions and weak market volatility. The downstream epoxy resin market is weak, and the overall operating rate is less than 50%. Enterprises are mainly bearish about the future market. The East China liquid epoxy resin market offers 13000-13400 yuan/ton of purified water for delivery, and the Mount Huangshan solid epoxy resin market negotiation price is 13000-13400 yuan/ton for cash delivery. The downstream PC market is weak and volatile, with mainstream negotiations for injection grade high-end materials in East China ranging from 16000-17000 yuan/ton. In terms of equipment, Zhejiang Petrochemical’s PC Phase I unit is planned to restart, with no significant fluctuations and an operating rate of less than 50%.

As the end of the year approaches, the industry is sluggish and volatile, and there is a lack of positive market news. Currently, bisphenol A is facing an increase in supply and the gradual release of production capacity. Traders have a weak mentality, and it is expected that bisphenol A will continue to hit the bottom in the short term. If the cost side is supported, bisphenol A may remain low and hover. Considering the lack of strength in the two downstream markets, it is highly likely that bisphenol A will fluctuate at a low level.