Overview of Ethylene Oxide Prices in November

In November, the price of ethylene oxide decreased. According to data from Business News Agency, as of November 20th, the average market price of ethylene oxide in China was 6400 yuan/ton; From a regional perspective, the epoxy ethane market in East China is priced at 6400 yuan/ton externally; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the South China market is 6500 yuan/ton; The listed price of epoxy ethane in North China is 6400-6500 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the central China region is 6600 yuan/ton.

Overview of ethylene oxide industry chain

The main downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer is affected by poor terminal demand, and recent weak demand has weakened its support for the price of ethylene oxide.

Raw material end

The price of raw material ethylene has started to show a weak market consolidation, and the cost support for ethylene oxide is average. On November 17th, the estimated CFR China price for ethylene in the port was between 860-880 US dollars per ton.

Ethylene oxide prices may be weakly stable in November

The short-term decline in crude oil, weak stability in ethylene prices, and weak cost side of ethylene oxide; The weak demand for downstream products has led to a recent decline in the price of ethylene oxide. However, as profits expand towards negative values, there is an expectation of a decrease in the operating rate of ethylene oxide, and the downward space gradually narrows. It is expected that the price of ethylene oxide will remain weak and stable in the short term.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of November 17, 2023, the factory price of domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was set at 4200 yuan/ton. Compared with November 12 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 4100 yuan/ton), the price increased by 100 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.44%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week, the overall domestic dimethyl carbonate market showed a steady upward trend. This is also the first increase in the dimethyl carbonate market in nearly a month.

The main factor supporting the rise of dimethyl carbonate market comes from the supply side. There are new maintenance devices added in the dimethyl carbonate field, and it is rumored that leading enterprises may have maintenance plans for 300000 tons of devices. The expected supply of dimethyl carbonate will decrease, and the supply pressure will be reduced. This will support dimethyl carbonate factories and suppliers to actively raise prices, with an increase of about 100 yuan/ton. As of November 17th, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is around 4000-4300 yuan/ton, with higher prices around 4400-4500 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

Currently, the overall performance of downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate is poor, with limited support from the demand side for dimethyl carbonate, and the overall operating rate of downstream factories is average. In terms of supply, currently, the preliminary maintenance equipment is still in the process of parking. In the short term, the supply side of dimethyl carbonate will still provide some support to the market. The dimethyl carbonate data analyst at the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market will mostly show fluctuating operation in the range, and more attention should be paid to the changes in supply and demand information.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the East China region’s 1 # tin ingot market fluctuated and rose this week (11.03-11.10). The average market price last weekend was 207260 yuan/ton, and this weekend it was 210860 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1.74%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have risen continuously for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, the price has dropped by 11.35% per month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the recent trend of the tin ingot market is generally weak.

In terms of the futures market, Shanghai and Wuxi saw a surge and upward trend this week. In terms of supply and demand, the overall operating rate of the smelting plant is stable at a high level, and the recent changes in operating rate are limited. Import sources have increased compared to the previous period, and the overall supply of tin ingots is relatively loose. In terms of demand, the tin ingot market has been declining for six consecutive weeks, and the intention to purchase downstream on dips has resumed. We are actively entering the market for procurement. Recently, the overall inventory of tin ingots has declined, and market transactions support a slight rebound in tin prices within the next week. However, there has been no significant improvement in terminal demand expectations, and the tin ingot market is still under pressure.

On November 12th, the base metal index stood at 1186 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 26.61% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 84.74% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, there were three commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month in the 45th week of 2023 (11.6-11.10) commodity price rise and fall list, with tin (1.49%), zinc (0.65%), and magnesium (0.16%) ranking among the top three commodities. There are a total of 16 products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with the top 3 products falling respectively being dysprosium oxide (-2.47%), dysprosium iron alloy (-1.92%), and praseodymium oxide (-1.90%). This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.79%.

This week (11.1=6-11.10), the domestic dimethyl ether market maintained stable operation. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of dimethyl ether in the Henan market on November 6th was 3650 yuan/ton, and on November 10th it was 3650 yuan/ton. There was no increase or decrease during the cycle, and it decreased by 21% compared to the same period last year.

As of November 10th, the mainstream prices of dimethyl ether in various regions of China are as follows:

Region/ Mainstream prices

Shandong region/ 3850 yuan/ton

Hebei region/ 3800 yuan/ton

Henan region/ 3650 yuan/ton

This week, the overall stability of the domestic dimethyl ether market was maintained, with mainstream prices in the Henan market ranging from 3650 to 3700 yuan/ton. The price of raw material methanol fluctuated and increased this week, but the boost to the dimethyl ether market was limited. The on-site supply has tightened, and some factories have reduced their load operations. However, the enthusiasm for downstream entry into the market is not high, with a focus on just demand and a weak market mentality, resulting in weak production and sales.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated and increased this week, rising from 2481 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2514 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.19%. The cost support for dimethyl ether has strengthened.

Overall, with downstream demand continuing to be weak, it is expected that dimethyl ether will continue to operate in a weak manner in the short term.

Price trend

Since November, the lithium hydroxide market has declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of November 9th, the average price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises in China was 198000.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.98% compared to the beginning of the month (202000.00 yuan/ton) and a decrease of 65.86% compared to the same period last year.

Entering November, the price of lithium hydroxide in the market has steadily declined, with no significant improvement in downstream demand, weak fundamentals, and a calm trading atmosphere in the market.

Cost side impact:

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of the Business Society, the industrial grade lithium carbonate market has shown a downward trend since November, with a strong cautious wait-and-see sentiment in the market and insufficient support for the lithium hydroxide market. The recent weak and stable prices of upstream spodumene concentrate have limited support for the lithium hydroxide market.

Supply and demand impact:

The recent market transactions are mainly based on long-term orders, with weak downstream demand for high nickel materials. Inquiry procurement is cautious and rigid, and supply and demand support for lithium hydroxide market is weak. The market trading atmosphere is light.

Business Society Lithium Hydroxide Analyst believes that in the short term, the upstream lithium carbonate price is weak, and the price of spodumene concentrate is temporarily stable. There is insufficient support for the positive performance of the lithium hydroxide market, and downstream inquiry procurement enthusiasm is not high. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic lithium hydroxide market may be weak, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from October 30th to November 6th, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China dropped from 9487 yuan/ton to 9450 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.40% during the cycle. The price fell 4.18% month on month and 2.38% year-on-year. The raw material pure benzene is subject to weak fluctuations, stable cost support, stable spot supply of cyclohexanone, and downstream follow-up on demand, resulting in a stable operation of the domestic cyclohexanone market.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The domestic pure benzene market has surged and fallen, with slight inventory accumulation at East China ports. Crude oil futures have fluctuated and declined during the week, resulting in insufficient support for pure benzene. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is affected by bearish factors.

On the supply side, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 6.55 million tons, and the current operating load is around 60%, which is at a relatively low level. The main production enterprises have limited product supply due to device maintenance. The short-term supply of cyclohexanone is influenced by positive factors.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream caprolactam production, and caprolactam is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The market for caprolactam has slightly improved. There is still support in some parts of the cost fluctuation consolidation, while in terms of supply, Nanjing Dongfang Parking Maintenance and Cangzhou Xuyang short-term load reduction have reduced supply, while the seller’s price intention has increased. The demand for cyclohexanone is temporarily positive.

According to future market forecasts, the raw material pure benzene is weakly sorted and the cost side is relatively stable. The spot supply and demand of cyclohexanone are balanced, and cyclohexanone analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market will operate weakly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the NMP market continued to decline this week. On October 30th, the average price of NMP was 15000 yuan/ton, and on November 3rd, the average price of NMP was 14600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.67%.

2、 Analysis and Review

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the NMP market continued to decline this week, and as of Friday, the mainstream retail prices in the domestic electronic grade NMP market were 14000-15000 yuan/ton. The price of raw material BDO has further declined, and the downstream has a strong resistance to high prices, so they are buying on dips. Insufficient follow-up on the NMP demand side, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere and a focus on just needs. The NMP factory on the production side has remained stable, but due to the prolonged market downturn and weak price support mentality, the market focus has shifted downwards.

As of November 3rd, the mainstream prices of NMP bulk water in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ November 3rd

East China region/ 14500-15500 yuan/ton

Central China region/ 14000-15000 yuan/ton

Southwest region/ 14000-15500 yuan/ton

Raw materials: The domestic BDO market is weak and slightly declining. From October 30th to November 3rd, the average price of domestic BDO fell from 10157 yuan/ton to 10017 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.38% during the cycle. Cost support further weakened, exacerbating the negative impact on NMP.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society NMP analysts believe that the current downstream follow-up of NMP prices is slow, and construction remains low. It is expected that the NMP market may continue to maintain a sluggish trend in the near future.

This week (10.23-10.31), the market for chloroform was weak and downward. According to data from Business Society, as of October 31, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2887 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.28% from 2925 yuan/ton on the 23rd. The price of raw material methanol fluctuates narrowly, the price of liquid chlorine slightly decreases, and the cost support for trichloromethane is weak; Downstream construction is temporarily stable, with on-demand inquiries for trichloromethane. Market transactions are flat, and trichloromethane enterprises have slightly accumulated inventory, resulting in a decrease in factory prices.

In the recent period (10.23-10.31), the price of raw material methanol has fluctuated and stabilized, while the price of liquid chlorine has weakened and declined, and the cost support for trichloromethane is weak. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 31, the spot price of methanol was 2445 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.41% from 2435 yuan/ton on the 23rd. The price of raw material liquid chlorine has decreased, and as of the 31st, the acceptance price of tank trucks is 300 yuan/ton.

The overall operation of refrigerant R22 is stable, and in the short term, there are more inquiries on demand for trichloromethane. Support for trichloromethane has slightly weakened, and the total production quota of R22 has been reduced by 19% to 181800 tons in 2023. In the medium to long term, overall support for trichloromethane demand has weakened.

Analysts from Business Society’s methane chloride data believe that cost and demand support will weaken slightly in the short term, and it is expected that the trichloromethane market will consolidate weakly.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference average price of domestic caprolactam on October 1st was 13512 yuan/ton. On October 31st, the reference average price of domestic caprolactam was 13087 yuan/ton. This month, the market price of domestic caprolactam fell by 3.15%.

2、 Market analysis

This month, the domestic market price of caprolactam was initially suppressed and then increased, with an overall downward trend being the main trend. In the first half of October, the market price of caprolactam fell. The price of raw material pure benzene has been lowered, and cost support has weakened. Downstream on-demand procurement leads to weak terminal demand. In the second half of October, the market price of caprolactam slightly increased. The price of raw material pure benzene has increased, and under cost pressure, some caprolactam companies have raised their prices. Downstream procurement on demand, with average terminal demand. As of October 31st, the settlement price of Sinopec caprolactam is 13250 yuan/ton, which is a liquid premium product.

Raw material pure benzene market. The price of pure benzene has slightly decreased this month. In the first half of October, prices slightly decreased, while in the second half of October, the price of pure benzene steadily increased. On October 1st, the price was 8172 yuan/ton; On October 31st, the price was 7900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.32% compared to the beginning of the month and an increase of 6.39% compared to the same period last year. This month, the price of Sinopec pure benzene decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 8050 yuan/ton.

Downstream PA6 market. This month, the downstream PA6 market fell first and then rose. The demand side is cautious in picking up goods, and market trading tends towards the low end. As of October 31st, the reference average price of domestic PA6 is 14525 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Caprolactam analysts believe that the caprolactam market has slightly increased recently. The price of raw material pure benzene has increased, and cost support has strengthened. Downstream procurement is in urgent need and should be handled with caution. It is expected that in the short term, the price of caprolactam will be relatively strong, with consolidation and operation being the main focus.

The price of aluminum fluoride increased significantly in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 30th, the domestic quotation for aluminum fluoride was 11575 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.04% compared to the price of aluminum fluoride on October 1st, which was 10150 yuan/ton. Cost support, demand recovery, and fluctuating prices of aluminum fluoride in October.

The price of fluorite rose sharply in October and slightly declined

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 30th, the price of fluorite was 3762.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.99% compared to the price of fluorite on October 1st, which was 3550 yuan/ton. Environmental safety inspections, combined with the impact of accidents at some fluorite mines, have resulted in poor operation of fluorite mines, tight supply of fluorite ore, and an increase in fluorite prices. In mid to late October, the high price of fluorite fell, cost support weakened, and support for the rise of aluminum fluoride weakened.

The price of hydrofluoric acid stabilized after rising in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 30th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 11500 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.66% compared to the price of hydrofluoric acid on October 1st, which was 10583.33 yuan/ton. Some hydrofluoric acid enterprises are still in shutdown, with hydrofluoric acid production starting at around 60%. There is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid, and the market for hydrofluoric acid is stagnant. The price of hydrofluoric acid has increased and then stabilized. In mid to late October, the price of hydrofluoric acid stabilized at a high level, and cost support weakened. However, there is still support for the rise of aluminum fluoride.

Ice crystal prices fell from their high point in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 30th, the price of cryolite was 7775 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.27% compared to the price of 7875 yuan/ton on October 1st. The cryolite market remains stable at a high level, and manufacturers’ quotations are firm and operating. Upstream product supply is tight, prices are rising at high levels, and the cost pressure on cryolite is increasing. The market mentality is bullish, but downstream power is insufficient, and there is a strong resistance towards high priced cryolite. Downstream customers follow up on demand, and cryolite prices have fallen from high levels, with insufficient support for the rise of aluminum fluoride.

Electrolytic aluminum prices fluctuated and fell in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 30th, the price of electrolytic aluminum was 19163.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.49% compared to the price of electrolytic aluminum on October 1st, which was 19856.67 yuan/ton. The peak season in October was not prosperous, and the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 2.7 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The demand for electrolytic aluminum was poor, and the downstream demand for aluminum fluoride was weak. The support for the rise of aluminum fluoride was weakened.

Market Overview and Forecast

Analysts from the fluoride aluminum industry at Business Society believe that in October, hydrofluoric acid fluctuated and rose, leading to a significant increase in fluorite prices and an increase in the cost of fluoride aluminum; In the latter half of the year, the price of fluorite fell from its high point, while the price of hydrofluoric acid fell from its high point. Cryolite has fallen from high levels, electrolytic aluminum has fluctuated and fallen, and demand for aluminum fluoride has decreased. Overall, the cost support for aluminum fluoride raw materials has weakened, and downstream demand is weak. There is insufficient support for the rise of aluminum fluoride, and it is expected that aluminum fluoride prices will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.