1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of bromine has remained stable this week. The price of bromine from the beginning of the week to the weekend was 25300 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 44.76%. On December 10th, the bromine commodity index was 88.77, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 63.79% from the highest point in the cycle of 245.18 points (2021-10-27), and an increase of 50.66% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of bromine has remained stable, with mainstream prices in the Shandong market ranging from 25000 to 25500 yuan/ton, and the market prices have stabilized horizontally. In terms of supply, the supply has been stable recently. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries are still mainly purchasing on demand recently, with a strong wait-and-see attitude.

In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have temporarily stabilized, with an average market price of 1060 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week to the weekend, a year-on-year decrease of 29.96%. This week, the overall price of raw material sulfur has maintained a stable market operation.

It is predicted that the price of bromine will fluctuate in the near future, while the upstream sulfur price will remain stable. The supply of bromine production will be stable in the near future, but downstream flame retardants and intermediates in the bromine industry will still be mainly purchased on demand. It is expected that bromine prices will consolidate in the short term, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Business Society, nickel prices have fluctuated and risen this week. As of December 8th, the spot nickel quotation was 135750 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.38% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 39.55%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, nickel prices have fallen by 8% and risen by 3% in the past 12 weeks, with the recent rebound being the main trend.

Nickel industry chain

On a macro level, the number of ADP jobs in the United States fell short of expectations, and signs of a weakening labor market reappeared. Nickel prices were supported by expectations of interest rate cuts.

In terms of supply: In October 2023, the national refined nickel production reached a total of 24000 tons, an increase of 8.9% month on month and 55.7% year-on-year. It is expected that the national refined nickel production will reach 24000 tons in November 2023, which is the same as the refined nickel production in October. The Philippines has entered the rainy season, and nickel ore imports and inventories are expected to continue to decline. Domestic refined nickel production is still at a high level, but due to the significant decline in nickel prices approaching the production cost of electrowinning nickel, refineries will focus on achieving their current production capacity targets.

In terms of demand: The stainless steel production in December is expected to continue to increase compared to the previous month, or slightly improve the demand for nickel iron. The bearish decline of nickel sulfate has not ended, and the sluggish quotation and production of ternary cathode materials are still dragging down.

In terms of imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of refined nickel in China in October 2023 was 6441.889 tons, an increase of 898.92 tons month on month or 16.22%; A year-on-year decrease of 5510.618 tons, a decrease of 46.1%. From January to October 2023, the total import volume of refined nickel in China was 76132.126 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 51474.328 tons, a decrease of 40.34%.

In summary, the current pattern of strong nickel supply and weak demand has not changed, and nickel supply continues to grow. However, consumption has not shown signs of improvement, and the surplus pattern continues. Nickel supply and demand are empty, and domestic refined nickel inventory and LME inventory continue to accumulate. Recently, nickel iron and nickel wet process intermediate products have concentrated in Indonesia and returned to the domestic market. The nickel industry chain supply is abundant, and in addition, the prices of nickel iron and nickel sulfate have weakened recently, resulting in a significant decline in the cost of purchasing raw materials to produce electric nickel. However, due to the recent continuous decline in nickel prices, the profits of the nickel industry have shrunk significantly, and nickel prices have even been underestimated compared to other links in the industry chain. The downward momentum of nickel prices is insufficient. It is expected that nickel prices may still have some rebound demand in the short term, but the rebound height may be limited.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mixed xylene market has been weak and declining recently (11.20-11.29). On November 29th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.84% from last Monday’s 7120 yuan/ton.

Asia US arbitrage space narrows, mixed xylene external market prices lower

Since the fourth quarter, the demand for mixed blending in North America has continued to decline, the interest rate spread between Asia and the United States has severely shrunk, and the price of toluene in Asia has stabilized at a low level. As of November 29th, the price of heterogeneous grade xylene in Asia is between $846-847 per ton.

The external price of mixed xylene has decreased, and port inventory has slightly increased

The mixed xylene port inventory has increased compared to the previous period, putting pressure on the mixed xylene market. It is understood that as of November 23, the total inventory of xylene in East and South China amounted to 27500 tons, a slight increase from 26000 tons in mid November.

The international crude oil price range fluctuates, and the cost support for mixed xylene is weak

Recently (11.20-11.29), the international crude oil price range has fluctuated, providing weak support for the cost of mixed xylene. As of November 219, the WTI01 contract closed at $77.70 per barrel and settled at $77.86 per barrel; The Brent 02 contract closed at $82.68 per barrel and settled at $81.47 per barrel.

PX starts stable mixing of xylene and obtains necessary support

The domestic supply of xylene is relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 70%. However, there is little change in spot supply during the maintenance of some xylene units. This week, international crude oil prices have risen, and PX external prices have been mainly affected by this. As of the 23rd, the closing prices in the Asian region are 984-986 yuan/ton FOB Korea and 1009-1011 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has been mainly fluctuating. Overall, the operating rate of xylene plants in the Asian region is around 70%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region has not changed much, and the domestic xylene market price trend is temporarily stable.

Weak market for phthalic anhydride and weak demand support for mixed xylene

The domestic phthalic anhydride plant is running smoothly, and Anhui Tongling ortho phthalic anhydride is starting to ship normally. The 100000 ton phthalic anhydride plant of Xinyang Group is running steadily, and Shandong Hongxin phthalic anhydride is operating normally. Currently, the domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate is maintaining over 60%, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is relatively sufficient. In addition, the production of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is normal, and the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is decreasing, which has correspondingly impacted the ortho phthalic anhydride market. In November, downstream procurement was mainly based on demand, and phthalic anhydride manufacturers lowered their factory prices, resulting in a continuous decline in the phthalic anhydride market.

Small fluctuations in the domestic mixed blending market, weak support for mixed xylene demand

Since the fourth quarter, the domestic mixed blending market has entered a off-season, with weak downstream inquiries, and the demand for mixed xylene continues to weaken. As of late November, the operating capacity of refineries nationwide has slightly declined to around 640%; The gasoline production of independent refineries has slightly decreased by 12000 tons compared to the previous period.

Market forecast: Currently, the international crude oil price range is fluctuating, and the cost support for mixed xylene is weak; Downstream mixed blending and other industries are experiencing weak demand, coupled with a slight increase in mixed xylene port inventories. It is expected that the mixed xylene market will experience a weak consolidation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference average price of domestic caprolactam on November 1st was 12837 yuan/ton, and on November 30th, the reference average price of domestic caprolactam was 13212 yuan/ton. This month, the market price of domestic caprolactam increased by 2.92%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic market price of caprolactam has risen this month. In mid to early November, the market price of caprolactam slightly increased. The price of raw material pure benzene has been lowered, weakening cost support. Some enterprises are undergoing parking and maintenance, resulting in a decrease in local market supply. Downstream procurement is on demand, and the demand side is relatively stable. In late November, the market price of caprolactam continued to rise and then slightly declined. Some companies may undergo maintenance or load reduction of caprolactam units, resulting in tight spot supply in the market and stable downstream demand. Supported by supply and demand, the market trend of caprolactam is improving. However, the price of raw material pure benzene has continued to decline, with insufficient cost support, resulting in a slight decline in the price of caprolactam at the end of the month. As of November 30th, the settlement price of Sinopec’s caprolactam is 13500 yuan/ton, which is a high-quality liquid product.

Raw material pure benzene market. This month, the price of pure benzene has slightly decreased, with a sharp decline in prices in the middle and late stages. On November 1st, the price was 7913 yuan/ton; On November 30th, the price was 7200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.01% from the beginning of the month and an increase of 10.05% from the same period last year. This month, the price of Sinopec pure benzene decreased by 850 yuan/ton to 7200 yuan/ton.

Downstream PA6 market. This month, the downstream PA6 market experienced a first decline followed by a fluctuating rise, with some spot prices starting to rise in mid month. The demand side is cautious in purchasing goods, and market trading tends towards the low-end. The domestic polymerization plant has seen a narrow increase in load, with inventory levels remaining low and a strong willingness to raise prices. As of November 30th, the average reference price for domestic PA6 is 14462.5 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Caprolactam Analysts believe that the caprolactam market has slightly declined recently. The price of raw material pure benzene continues to weaken, with insufficient cost support. As market supply gradually recovers, the positive factors weaken. It is expected that the price of caprolactam will be weak in the short term, with consolidation and operation being the main focus.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly decreased this week. On November 27th, the price of pure benzene was 7498 yuan/ton, and on Friday (December 1st), the price of pure benzene was 7025 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.07% from last week and an increase of 7.53% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was 7200 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions fell by 550 yuan/ton simultaneously)

Downstream aspect

3、 Future Market Forecast

In late December, pure benzene in the night market was discussed to have risen to around 7050 yuan/ton, but crude oil initially rose and then fell before finally closing down. It is expected that pure benzene in East China will fluctuate and consolidate in the morning.

Crude oil: Several oil producing countries have announced a new round of voluntary production cuts in the first quarter of next year, with a total scale of about 2.2 million barrels per day, at the OPEC+meeting. However, the market is concerned about the lack of official constraints on actual implementation, and international oil prices have fallen after a sharp rise. NYMEX crude oil futures contract 01 fell $1.90 per barrel, or 2.44%, at 75.96%; ICE oil futures contract 01 fell by $0.27 per barrel, or 0.32%, at 82.83. The main contract of China INE crude oil futures, 2401, rose 5.6 to 583 yuan/barrel, and fell 6.4 to 576.6 yuan/barrel in overnight trading.

Core logic: Yesterday, pure benzene had a slight upward trend in negotiations, but spot resource transactions were weak, and there was insufficient buying gas on the market. Most transactions were mainly made in distant months. Shandong refineries have weak willingness to hold goods and have significantly lowered prices to promote shipments. After the price drop, the market’s buying sentiment improved, and a large number of low-priced goods were purchased to deliver orders within the week, resulting in better transactions.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the domestic PC market gradually declined in November, and spot prices of various brands were generally lowered. As of November 30th, the mixed benchmark price of Shengyishe PC was around 15733.33 yuan/ton, with a decrease of -4.45% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that the domestic bisphenol A market has recovered after a decline this month. The decline in international crude oil during the month dragged down the phenol and acetone prices in the first half of the month. Insufficient upstream support led to the shutdown and maintenance of Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 240000 tons/year bisphenol A plant at the end of the month. Good supply supported a slight recovery in spot prices, but overall support for the PC cost side was poor.

On the supply side, the overall operating rate of domestic PCs in November rose but then fell, and the industry load narrowed down from around 66% at the beginning of the month to about 64%. The maintenance and resumption of work of the PC aggregation device within the month have mutually occurred, and the overall supply of goods on site is abundant. The smoothness of enterprise shipments is poor, and the factory price has fallen, providing moderate support for spot prices.

In terms of demand: As we enter November, the enthusiasm of terminal enterprises to purchase goods is low, and the main logic leans towards digesting inventory, resulting in poor demand for on-site stocking. Due to the low starting position of terminal enterprises and increased market concerns among operators, the demand side provided poor support for spot prices in November.

Future Market Forecast

The PC market continued to decline in November. The upstream bisphenol A market rebounded after falling, providing weak support for PC costs. The domestic polymerization plant has a stable load with small fluctuations, and the market has abundant spot supply. Traders have a weak mentality and tend to offer at discounted prices. Downstream enterprises are chasing gains and selling, with poor enthusiasm for receiving goods. Overall, whether it is the weak fundamentals at present or the weak expectations at the end of the year in the future, the PC market may continue to operate weakly in the short term due to the difficulty of finding good news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, in November 2023, the domestic lead ingot market experienced a downward trend after fluctuations. The average price in the domestic market was 16330 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, 16065 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decrease of 1.62%.

On November 28th, the lead commodity index was 97.98, a decrease of 0.67 points from yesterday, a decrease of 26.89% from the highest point in the cycle of 134.01 points (2016-11-29), and an increase of 31.29% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 present).

On November 28th, the base metal index was 1139 points, a decrease of 8 points from yesterday, a decrease of 29.52% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 77.41% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. After the decline in lead prices in January 2023, the trend in the first half of the year was somewhat volatile. June August was the peak season of the season, and it continued to decline after September. The weekly trend is mixed.

In November 2023, the lead ingot market showed a volatile trend in the first half of the year, while the overall trend in the second half was weak. At the beginning of the month, the Federal Reserve announced further interest rate hikes, with an overall hawkish performance. The US dollar was boosted and the metal market was generally under pressure. Shanghai lead followed suit and the overall trend fluctuated between 16415-16695 yuan/ton. In the middle of the week, the proportion of warehouse orders cancelled by London Lead in the overseas market increased rapidly last week, which boosted market sentiment. Driven by funds, London Lead rose, and domestic Shanghai Lead followed suit. Under the disturbance of funds, the Shanghai Lead market brought a wave of upward momentum. As the bulls left the market, the overall lead price fell from a high level, and LME lead ingot inventories continued to rise, putting pressure on lead prices.

From the perspective of supply and demand, the market has not changed much recently, and the operating rate of primary lead has slightly rebounded, leading to an increase in market supply expectations. However, the prices of waste batteries in the field of recycled lead are still high, which affects the enthusiasm of recycled lead enterprises to recycle. Under cost pressure, the operating rate of recycled lead enterprises has significantly declined. At present, the price of recycling used batteries has risen to a nearly 5-year high, and it is difficult to fall back in the future. Therefore, the market expects that the supply of recycled lead in the near future will be tight and difficult to change. In terms of demand, downstream industries have shown a more obvious performance during the off-season, with weak demand for automotive batteries and electric bicycle batteries, resulting in overall weak market demand. After entering the off-season, the overall trading in the spot market is relatively light, with long-term orders being the main focus and relatively few scattered orders in the market. Overall, the trend of lead prices has returned to its fundamental influence, and it is expected that the industry will continue to maintain a weak trend in the future under the influence of the traditional seasonal off-season.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fluctuated and declined this week (11.17-11.24). The average market price last weekend was 212810 yuan/ton, and this weekend it was 201610 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 5.26%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have been continuously rising for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, prices have fallen by 11.35% in a single month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has seen more declines and less gains in recent times.

The futures market saw a broad decline in Shanghai tin prices this week, and the sentiment in the spot market was low. However, as market prices fell, downstream entry enthusiasm increased, and some low-priced transactions were made during the week. Smelters have been affected by the recent market downturn, and some enterprises have a strong reluctance to sell, resulting in lower quotations. From the perspective of supply and demand, the overall operating rate of smelters is relatively stable, while with the increase of imported tin ingot sources, the overall supply of domestic tin ingots is relatively sufficient. In terms of demand, downstream performance is still weak, and the overall expectation for solder demand is still weak. Most consumer terminals maintain a wait-and-see attitude, actively reducing inventory and adhering to the principle of replenishing raw materials according to demand. Overall, in the future market, there is sufficient supply of tin ingots and weak downstream demand. Domestic inventory is generally at a high level, and tin prices are under pressure overall. It is expected that the tin ingot market will continue to operate steadily with a weak trend in the future. In the near future, we will focus on the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on the market.

On November 26th, the non-ferrous index was at 1090 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.13% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 79.57% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 47th week of 2023 (11.20-11.24), there were a total of 6 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were dysprosium oxide (4.17%), dysprosium metal (3.06%), and dysprosium ferroalloy (3.04%). There are a total of 13 products that have experienced a month on month decline, with nickel (-4.28%), cobalt (-3.87%), and tin (-3.49%) being the top three products with the largest decline. The average increase and decrease this week is -0.84%.

1、 Trend analysis

This week, copper prices rose first and then fell, with narrow fluctuations. As of this weekend, the spot copper quotation is 68661.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.04% from the beginning of the week’s 68635 yuan/ton and a year-on-year increase of 4.88%.

According to the weekly chart of ups and downs by Business Society, in the past three months, copper prices have fallen by 5% and risen by 6%. Recently, copper prices have rebounded slightly.

LME copper inventories have fluctuated at high levels and are still at a relatively high level, with a slight decline.

Macroscopically, the pace of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy still has a significant impact on the trend of copper prices. The US dollar index and US bond yields showed signs of peaking and falling in early November, supporting the momentum behind the high level operation of the US dollar index and US bond yields – the core CPI also showed a sustained weakening trend. The excess savings of current US residents are about to be depleted in the fourth quarter, and the tightening financial environment will gradually affect the judgment of residents on their balance sheets, showing signs of weakening the suppression of copper prices.

Supply side: On the mining side, the demand for smelters has increased month on month, with fewer maintenance companies, and most refineries are in the process of increasing production. Marginal increase in demand for copper concentrate in the next 1-2 months. On the supply side, due to the strike by workers in late October, some of the copper produced by Canon and Lomo in Congo is at risk of being stranded. In terms of refined copper, the domestic refined copper production in September was 1.012 million tons. Currently, the production rate of smelters is high, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to maintain full production. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will remain high by the end of the year, and the production will continue to increase. Major global copper mines are facing production disruptions, exacerbating supply concerns and providing support for prices.

On the demand side: Last week, the operating rate of precision copper rods was 74.02%, a decrease of 3.81 percentage points compared to the previous week; The operating rate of recycled copper poles is 45.66%, with a weekly increase of 2.78 percentage points. With the arrival of the off-season for consumption, downstream consumption tends to be weak. The completion of domestic power grid investment has rebounded.

In summary, terminal demand was supported by the resilience of cable and new energy consumption at the end of the year, and overall performance remained stable, making up for some of the drag brought by off-season consumption. The appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar has improved the outlook for metal demand, and some funds have gone long before China’s new round of real estate stimulus measures, which has also supported copper prices. Adequate domestic copper supply suppresses copper prices. It is expected that copper will continue to fluctuate in the short term.

Recent price trends of urea

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic urea market price has slightly increased this week, with urea prices rising from 2551.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2630.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 3.07%, and a year-on-year decrease of 1.13% over the weekend. On November 20th, the urea commodity index was 120.93, a decrease of 1.4 points from yesterday, a decrease of 20.61% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 117.50% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Cost support is good, downstream demand is average, and urea supply is sufficient

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream price of urea in China has slightly increased this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chains, it can be seen that the urea upstream market has slightly increased this week: the price of liquefied natural gas has significantly increased, from 4840.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5040.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 4.13%, and the weekend price has increased by 13.87% year-on-year. The price of anthracite has stabilized at a low level, with the price of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium block) reaching 1110 yuan/ton this week; The price of liquid ammonia has slightly increased, rising from 4216.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 4333.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 2.77%. The weekend price has decreased by 5.25% year-on-year. Upstream raw material prices have slightly increased, providing good support for urea prices.

From a demand perspective: Agricultural demand has weakened, while industrial demand is average. Agriculture has entered the off-season. Composite fertilizer, board, and melamine enterprises generally start construction, and mainly purchase on demand. The price of melamine downstream of urea has temporarily stabilized this week, at 7325.00 yuan/ton. From a supply perspective, some enterprises have completed maintenance, and daily urea production has further increased, resulting in sufficient supply.

Small fluctuation and decline in the future market

In late November, the domestic urea market may experience a slight fluctuation and increase. Business Society urea analysts believe that the upstream market of urea has slightly increased, and urea costs are well supported. Downstream industrial demand is average, while agricultural demand is weakening. The daily production of urea is around 180000 tons, and the supply is good. In the future, urea may fluctuate and rise in a narrow range.