I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in North China fell slightly this week, and the quotation fell from 260.00 yuan / ton in the week to 243.33 yuan / ton in the weekend, down 6.41%, up 170.37% year on year. Overall, the hydrochloric acid market fell slightly this week, with the hydrochloric acid commodity index at 64.03 on December 13.

II. Market analysis

(I) products:

This week’s hydrochloric acid market prices slightly fell, the overall market down. The quotation of Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid is 300 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; the weekend quotation of Wenshui synthetic hydrochloric acid is 200 yuan / ton, which is 30 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; the weekend quotation of Jinan Yuanfei hydrochloric acid is 450 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the weekend quotation of Dezhou Meihua hydrochloric acid is 80 yuan / ton, which is 20 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week.

(II) industrial chain:

The upstream liquid chlorine market is generally weak in support of hydrochloric acid, while the downstream dyes, calcium chloride and chloroethane are still mainly purchased according to early demand. Hydrochloric acid market as a whole seems to be declining, and by-product acid is still hitting the market. The pressure of hydrochloric acid delivery is relatively high, and the quality of by-product hydrochloric acid produced by TDI, chloropropene, propylene oxide and methane chloride is relatively good. On the whole, the difficulty of hydrochloric acid delivery is still a big problem.

III. future forecast

After the adjustment in November, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. Business analysts believe that: upstream liquid chlorine Market in the near future is general, downstream rare earth, fuel demand is weak. Business analysts think hydrochloric acid’s recent status consolidation

On December 12, the fluorite commodity index was 101.17, unchanged from yesterday, down 20.64% from 127.49 (2019-01-03), the highest point in the cycle, and up 105.59% from 49.21, the lowest point on December 18, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite is temporarily stable. As of 12 days, the average price of domestic fluorite is 2883.33 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic fluorite device has been started normally, the mine and flotation device in the field have been started normally, the supply of fluorite in the field is normal, and the downstream hydrofluoric acid price has been kept low in the near future. For the purchase on demand in the fluorite market, the goods in the fluorite field are generally sold, and the price trend of fluorite market is temporarily stable. In the near future, the downstream units are under normal operation, the spot supply of fluorite in the site is sufficient, and the downstream demand of the terminal is not improved, resulting in weak market price. As of December 12, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2600-2800 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2600-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2600-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2600-3000 yuan / ton, and that of fluorite remained low.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in the downstream of fluorite has been fluctuating. As of 12 days, the price of hydrofluoric acid Market in China is 10140 yuan / ton. The price fluctuation of hydrofluoric acid market has a certain negative impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, in recent years, the operation of hydrofluoric acid plant has been in general. The demand for fluorite is normal, and the price of fluorite has been fluctuating at a low level. In the near future, the transaction market of the downstream refrigerant market of the terminal has increased slightly. At present, the automobile industry has entered the cycle of goods preparation. The supply of R22 in China is tight. The market price of R22 in China has increased. The starting load of the manufacturer’s production unit is still not high. The supply capacity of the market source has declined. The downstream air conditioning manufacturer has maintained the demand, but the supply is tight. The price of domestic large enterprises is mainly Flow rose to 13500-14500 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China has increased slightly, and the unit operating rate of production enterprises has remained low. At present, the automobile industry has entered the stock cycle, and the demand for R134a has slightly improved. However, the supply of R134a in the market is a little tight, the price has slightly increased, and the downstream market has improved. In addition, the recent hydrofluoric acid market has a rising trend, so the fluorite market may be well supported.

On the whole, the market of downstream refrigerant industry has improved, the supply of fluorite in the North has declined gradually, and the recent market of hydrofluoric acid has a rising trend. According to Chen Ling, an analyst of business agency, the market price of fluorite may rise slightly.

According to statistics, the price trend of phthalic anhydride in China has increased slightly. As of December 11, the price of phthalic anhydride from o-phthalic acid process was 6325 yuan / ton. Recently, the price trend of o-phthalic anhydride market has increased slightly. On December 10, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 61.44, unchanged from yesterday, 48.86% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 120.13 (2012-02-28), and 26.89% higher than the lowest point, 48.42, on January 21, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

In recent years, the price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride market has slightly increased. The price of phthalic anhydride market in East China has been temporarily stable. The downstream factories maintain the rigid demand for purchase. The factory inventory pressure is still there, and the high-end transaction is blocked. Recently, the factory inventory has increased, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market has fluctuated. In East China, the main flow of negotiation of neighboring method source is 6200-6400 yuan / ton, that of naphthalene method source is 6000-6200 yuan / ton; in North China, the main flow of quotation of phthalic anhydride market is 6100-6300 yuan / ton, most of the manufacturers in the field are mainly stable, the downstream construction is not high, the purchase is mainly on demand, the wait-and-see mentality is strong, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plant is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the field is normal, and the benzene is normal The price trend of anhydrides is limited.

In the near future, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec is 6200 yuan / ton. Due to the high unit operating rate of some domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers, the normal supply of goods within the site, the import phthalic acid Market in the port area remains at a low level. In the near future, the phthalic acid Market in the port is stable, the port inventory is low, and the external price of phthalic acid is temporarily stable. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, and the details are discussed in detail Benzene price stability, phthalic anhydride market price trend limited.

The downstream DOP price increased slightly, the price of isooctanol decreased, and the cost of DOP raw materials remained stable. The downstream demand of DOP is poor, the customer’s purchasing enthusiasm is poor, the downstream PVC price is adjusted by fluctuation, and the maintenance demand of PVC manufacturers is general. The main quotation of DOP market is about 7300-7500 yuan / ton, the rising power of DOP in the future market is weakened, and the downstream price trend is normal, but the upstream ox price remains low, the demand of plasticizer industry changes little, and the phthalic anhydride analyst of business society expects that the market price of phthalic anhydride in the later period will be mainly volatile.

I. market price trend chart of polyformaldehyde

Price curve of POM

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of business agency, on December 10, the average price of Polyoxymethylene (96) in Shandong Province was 4516 yuan / ton, and the average price last week was 4583 yuan / ton, down 1.45%.

II. Market analysis

Products: Shandong aldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 30000 tons of POM. The ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4450 yuan / ton, and the quotation is stable. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 9000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4300 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton from last week. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 10000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4800 yuan / ton, with stable quotation.

Industrial chain: upstream methanol, domestic methanol market is stable, as of December 6, the average price of domestic methanol market is 2152 yuan / ton. The price is 0.12% higher than that of the same period last month and 9.56% lower than that of the same period last year. The lower pesticide market is not good and the demand is reduced, which leads to the weak quotation of some enterprises.

III. future forecast

Business Club polyformaldehyde analysts believe that: polyformaldehyde or will be the main weak operation.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the ex factory price of domestic refrigerant R22 continued to rise this week. On December 2, the average price of mainstream manufacturers was 16166.67 yuan / ton, and the average price of weekend (06) was 17100 yuan / ton. This week’s market rose, down 7.57% year-on-year.

II. Market analysis

Product: the market price of R22 in refrigerant market keeps rising this week. At the end of R22 year, the quota of the enterprise was gradually absent, the supply was tight, and the market began to be out of stock. Most of the manufacturers basically did not receive new orders, produced according to the quota, and mainly supplied orders before. Hydrofluoric acid and chloroform at the raw material end are strongly supported, terminal construction is at a low level, the demand for refrigerant R22 is flat, the supply of goods in the hands of traders is tight, the sense of hoarding is strengthened, the price continues to push up, but the transaction is flat. According to the data monitoring of Italian society, as of December 6, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 17100 yuan / ton, and the quotation was mostly concentrated in the range of 14500 yuan / ton to 18800 yuan / ton. The trend of refrigerant R22 was strong.

R22 is currently the most widely used medium and low temperature refrigerant, but it has been gradually replaced because of its great harm to the ozone layer. According to the Montreal agreement, R22 will be completely eliminated by 2030, so the manufacturer is required to produce according to the national quota. This year, the supply of fluorite is tight, and R22 quota is reduced again. Under the condition of constant demand, the enterprise quota bottoms at the end of the year. It is reasonable that the price rises. In addition, the market of hydrofluoric acid and chloroform at the end of the raw material is getting better. With the support of good conditions, the price of refrigerant R22 keeps rising.

Industry chain: the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid and hydrofluoric acid of upstream products is stable. In the near future, the factory in the field is in a general situation, and the spot supply in the field is normal. The price of domestic trichloromethane for upstream products has remained stable. Due to the shortage of goods in the early stage, the supply in the industry is still tight at present. The downstream market has a flat intention to receive goods, and the trade and investment in the industry is slightly light. The terminal air conditioner manufacturer starts at a low level and the demand is flat.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 48th week of 2019 (12.2-12.6), there are 17 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the chemical sector; the top three commodities are R22 (5.77%), liquid ammonia (3.72%) and organosilicon DMC (3.17%). There are 26 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month ratio, and the top three products were propylene (- 3.85%), isopropanol (- 3.63%) and polysilicon (- 3.34%). This week’s average was – 0.26%.

III. future forecast

According to the refrigerant analyst of the business club, the raw material end of refrigerant R22 is strongly supported, the quota margin of the enterprise is very few, there is no market or price in the market, and there is a shortage of goods. It is expected that the trend of refrigerant R22 will remain strong in the short term.

I. price trend

The domestic toluene market rebounded in shock this week, up about 0.93% as of Friday, according to the data in the business club’s bulk list.

II. Analysis and comment

1. Products: compared with the previous week, the market price of this week rebounded and transactions were active. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 5800 yuan / ton. According to the feedback from traders, the trading was stable this week compared with last week, and the port inventory increased slightly, about 20000 tons.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, this week’s oil prices generally showed a bottoming recovery trend, with Brent up 1.07% at sight, Brent futures up 1.3%, WTI futures flat, and Dubai futures up 2.64%.

In the downstream, TDI, the domestic TDI market fell slightly this week, and the industry was cautious. The quotation of domestic goods with bills in East China was 13000-13100 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods with bills was 13200-13300 yuan / ton. It is expected that the TDI market will maintain a weak shock in the later period. In the PX market, the price of external market is slightly higher, the operating rate of downstream textile industry is slightly lower, and the supply of domestic PX market is normal. It is expected that the price of PX market will maintain 6700 yuan / ton next week.

 
III. future forecast

According to xylene analysts from the chemical branch of business society, we will continue to focus on market turnover, port inventory, progress of Sino US trade negotiations and crude oil trend next week. Overall, it is expected that the toluene market will continue to fluctuate slightly next week.

I. price trend

In the near future, the atmosphere of butadiene market in China is cold and clear. As of December 5, the price of butadiene was 9034 yuan / ton, up 3.80% on a month on month basis and down 0.94% on a year-on-year basis.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Products: butadiene supply price is stable, the market is weak, the information surface guidance is limited, the downstream inquiry continues to be cold, the offer changes little, wait-and-see. The external price remained stable. The closing price of butadiene in Asia was US $895-903 / T on FOB South Korea average and US $945-953 / T on CFR China average.

In terms of market, the butadiene market in East China continues to be cold, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is low, the market turnover is limited, and the price is mainly sorted out. The price of superior products is about 9500-9600 yuan / ton, and the actual price is negotiated. The butadiene market in Shandong Province is subject to limited changes, with stable supply and demand. There is no obvious guidance on the news. The merchants mainly wait and see. The delivery price of superior products is 9300-9400 yuan / ton, and the transaction is cold..

In terms of industrial chain: styrene butadiene rubber: the offer price of domestic styrene butadiene rubber has slightly increased, and the business operators are cautious. In some areas, the buyer has the behavior of price reduction, but the transaction is not much. Polybutadiene rubber: the domestic market of polybutadiene rubber is stable. The price offered by the merchants is stable, and the intention of low price shipment is not high. The inquiry atmosphere in the field is flat, and sporadic buyers enter the market for inquiry, and the volume of spot trading is small.

III. future forecast

Domestic manufacturers have limited factory quotation changes, and the price of the outside market is stable. There is not much spot circulation in the butadiene market, while the demand continues to be cold, and the supply and demand remain stagnant. Butadiene analysts of the business agency expect that the domestic butadiene market will maintain consolidation in the short term.

Market Overview:

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, the dichloromethane market in Shandong Province has been greatly shaken. In the month, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong Province is 2860 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, rising to 3080 yuan / ton in the middle of the month, up 7.69%, and falling to 2680 yuan / ton near the end of the month, down 12.99% compared with the maximum price, and 6.729% in the whole month.

Market analysis:

Products: at the beginning of November, affected by the low level of construction in the region, Shandong continued to rise at the end of October, the price of dichloromethane soared all the way, and the market started at a low level. Among them, the maintenance of 280000t / a units in Dongyue, Shandong Province was from the middle of November, the maintenance of 440000t / a units in Jinling, Shandong Province was from the middle of November, and the construction of Luxi Chemical industry continued to carry out 60% of foreign trade orders, and the spot supply in the industry was tight after the middle of the month, In addition to the normal production of a 40000 ton / year plant in Jinmao, Dongying, the supply of dichloromethane in the industry is gradually increasing. In addition, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong province continues to decline. At present, the price in the region is about 2480 yuan / ton, Jiangxi Liwen is about 3250 yuan / ton, and Jiangsu is about 3750 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in the upstream, natural gas has been rising in a wave like manner. Since the northern cities gradually enter the winter heating period, the regional urban fuel and replenishment warehouses have been opened, driving the overall demand up. At present, it is about 4623 yuan / ton. The liquid chlorine market has been operated by the supply improvement, and the price of the enterprise has been continuously reduced. At present, it is reported about 200-500 yuan / ton more, and some enterprises still stick to the shipment. In the downstream, the domestic refrigerant market is in the traditional off-season, the market share of rationing basically bottomed out, and rebounded within the month; the pharmaceutical agricultural market and solvent industry just need to be flat, and the price of dichloromethane is generally supported.

Future forecast:

According to the data analyst of methane chloride of business association, dichloromethane is in the traditional off-season at present, the downstream market demand is poor and there is no obvious sign of recovery in a short period of time. In addition, the supply of dichloromethane in Shandong Province is gradually recovering. Under the condition that the supply exceeds the demand, the price of dichloromethane is expected to gradually decline.

I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic PP market in November was mainly subject to fluctuation and adjustment, with spot prices rising and falling. As of November 30, the main offer price of T30S by domestic producers and traders was about 8383.33 yuan / ton, down 1.95% from the beginning of the month.

II. Cause analysis

Upstream: upstream propylene was mainly subject to fluctuation and reduction in November, while domestic propylene spot price went down in a stepped manner. This decline has been seen since the end of October. The upstream international crude oil is affected by the OPEC production reduction policy or the news that it will be extended. The market is generally ideal, which has a certain effect on propylene. Downstream it is reported that some propylene oxide and polypropylene powder plants reduce the load and demand, which has a negative impact on propylene. Epichlorohydrin prices fell sharply in a row, down 28.19% since November 1. At present, its cost support is weak, the downstream epoxy resin is in weak operation, the market wait-and-see atmosphere is not reduced, there is no obvious positive factor, and the upstream power is insufficient, which has a significant suppression effect on the propylene market. Generally speaking, propylene market has been declining for two consecutive rounds. The domestic inventory is average, but the load of downstream units is reduced, so it is expected that the market price of propylene will continue to be lowered in recent days.

Product: in November, the spot price of PP market rose and fell with each other, and the overall adjustment was weak and volatile. The upstream propylene market is weak, and the cost side support for PP is limited. In terms of supply, at present, the operating rate of PP plant has rebounded. From the end of the year to the beginning of next year, PP production capacity also put a lot of pressure on the supply side, and the production capacity is still in the stage of rapid expansion. Industry competition is becoming increasingly fierce and profits are being squeezed. In terms of demand, the main downstream plastic products, such as plaiting, BOPP film, non-woven fabric, injection molding, etc., are weak. The downstream products are weak and there is no centralized replenishment phenomenon in the downstream factories, so the low price and rigid demand procurement is adopted. On the macro level, the growth rate of China’s plastic product output slows down in 2019, the decrease of China US economic and trade friction plastic product export and the increasing pressure of transformation and upgrading of plastic enterprises are all important factors for the compression of plastic enterprises’ profits. At the end of the month, the petrochemical inventory was digested smoothly, the business tasks were completed successively, the spot price was firm, and the market had no clear direction. At present, PP in China is in shock adjustment, with weak rise and fall, and lacks the opportunity to reverse from the downward channel.

III. future forecast

PP analysts of business club think: domestic PP prices fell in November. The upstream propylene market is weak and the cost end support is limited. For the replenishment of downstream factories, there is no centralized purchase, and the strategy of just need to take delivery is adopted. Due to the expected expansion of domestic production capacity, PP supply shows a long-term expansion trend, and industry competition is strengthened. It is expected that the PP market will continue to adjust slightly in the near future. It is suggested to pay attention to the supply of PP in the near future.

I. price trend

In November 2019, the butadiene market fluctuated violently. According to the monitoring of the business society, the price of butadiene at the beginning of the month was 9123 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month was 8834 yuan / ton, down 3.17% in the month, 3.88% compared with the same period last year.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Products: in November, the ex factory price of butadiene in China rose and fell with each other. As of 29th, Sinopec’s supply price in East China fell by 1000 yuan / ton to 8900 yuan / ton on a month on month basis; the base price of Liaotong chemical’s bidding rose by 200 yuan / ton to 8910 yuan / ton on a month on month basis. At the beginning of the month, the sudden shutdown of Lanzhou Petrochemical Plant led to the increase of mutual supply of Fushun and Ningmei. In addition, Fushun Petrochemical also had a short-term shutdown plan. The unexpected news from the supply side boosted the market. However, the downstream demand follow-up is limited, and the market upward resistance is obvious. In addition, the supply of foreign ocean going cargo is abundant and the price is low, which obviously drags the domestic spot market. In the middle and late ten days, with the restart of Ningmei and Huayu units and the export of Fushun Petrochemical products, the increase of spot supply continued to put pressure on the market; however, at the same time, the external market stopped falling and stabilized, bringing support to the mentality of some merchants in East China, and the market was mainly sorted out in a small way. In the last week of the month, the spot supply in the North was lower than expected, and the supply side boosted the market to move higher. The follow-up to the real single price and high price in the downstream was limited, but the market still rose significantly under the guidance of the supplier price.

In terms of industrial chain: styrene butadiene rubber: in November, the domestic styrene butadiene rubber market was stable and dynamic. Sinopec and PetroChina’s sales companies continued to tighten the market volume during the month. Environmental protection in the northern region was still severe. The start-up of rubber pipe belt and other products enterprises around Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei was limited. Some tire enterprises in East China and Shandong market maintained the use and purchase while the actual purchase tended to depress the price. Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber, November, domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market consolidation upward trend. At the beginning of the month, the decline at the end of last month continued, and the supply price slightly weakened, but the market did not decline much, so traders kept a wait-and-see attitude and acted cautiously. In the month, the price of butadiene first fell and then rose, and it was stronger in the last ten days of the month, and the cost side turned to be positive; the spot price of Shanghai rubber was higher than that of the synthetic rubber market, although the price difference was slightly narrowed, the message side support remained; although the failure shutdown of Yangzi Shunding unit has not been restarted yet, other mainstream Shunding units were in normal operation in the month, and the overall supply side was relatively abundant.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in November 2019, there were 21 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which 8 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 9.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities were hydrochloric acid (67.31%), propanone (36.29%) and isopropanol (26.96%). There are 58 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, 18 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 21.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were epichlorohydrin (- 31.74%), aniline (- 19.11%) and caustic soda (- 18.56%). The average rise and fall of this month was – 1.05%.

III. future forecast

In the future, the positive aspects: short-term tight spot supply; downstream just need support; device positive news boost. On the negative side, the arrival of imported cargo is expected; the downstream synthetic rubber market is limited. With the downstream digestion of low-priced ocean shipping, the quotation of near ocean shipping is relatively strong, and the stop of external market supports the mentality of some domestic businesses; with the support of the end of the month spot supply, the supplier dominates the upward market. Although the downstream follow-up is limited in the short term, but there is no obvious inventory pressure on the supplier, and Sinopec price is expected to increase, the butadiene analyst of the business society predicted that next month The initial butadiene market is strong. However, with the drag of the downstream market and demand, the unilateral pull up resistance of butadiene is more obvious, and there is no lack of weakness in the middle and late period. However, we need to pay attention to whether the information of external devices can bring substantial good support to the shipping market.