Recently (1.17-1.23), the market price of butadiene rubber has slightly increased. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 23, the market price of Shunding rubber in East China was 15000 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.81% from 14880 yuan/ton on January 17. The price of raw material butadiene continues to rise, and the cost support of butadiene rubber is strong; The production of butadiene rubber has slightly decreased, and the pressure on the supply side has decreased; As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream stocking is gradually weakening and market transactions are flat. Recently, the supply prices of Shunding rubber suppliers have increased, and the quotes from merchants have also risen. As of January 23, the mainstream quotes for Shunding in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze in East China are 14800~15150 yuan/ton.

Recently (1.17-1.23), the price of butadiene has continued to rise, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has slightly shifted upward. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 23, the price of butadiene was 12662 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.60% from 12462 yuan/ton on January 17.

Recently (1.17-1.23), the construction of domestic butadiene rubber plants has slightly decreased, with overall construction around 6.6%.

Demand side: As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream businesses are gradually taking a break, and the stock of Shunding rubber is gradually decreasing, resulting in sluggish market transactions.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene will continue to rise, and the cost of butadiene rubber will continue to be strongly supported; Recently, as the Spring Festival approaches, market transactions have gradually weakened; Shunding rubber production slightly decreased to around 6.60%, with slightly reduced supply pressure. Overall, with the support of high costs and supply, the Shunding rubber market mainly stabilized at a high level before the holiday.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market has slightly declined recently. As of January 21, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 6500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.31% from 6520 yuan/ton on January 1.

In terms of supply: In mid to early January, Yantai Wanhua reduced its negative load, with relatively low shipment volume and continuous increase in auction prices. The main factories followed suit and increased prices. In addition, maleic anhydride manufacturers mainly use it for their own purposes, resulting in a decrease in market supply and a shortage of distributor sources. Therefore, the focus is on observation and wait-and-see; At present, Wanhua is experiencing a decline in demand, leading to an increase in market supply. In addition, downstream unsaturated resin manufacturers of maleic anhydride are approaching a shutdown period from the previous year, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. As a result, the prices of major maleic anhydride factories continue to fall. As of January 21st, the factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6400 yuan/ton, and the factory price of liquid anhydride is around 6000 yuan/ton.

Upstream: In mid January, the overall n-butane market declined, and as of January 21, the price in Shandong was around 5000-5150 yuan/ton.

Downstream: As the end of the year approaches, some unsaturated resin companies have parking plans for prices. Unsaturated resin is urgently needed for downstream procurement, and support for unsaturated resin is limited. Currently, unsaturated resin mainly relies on demand for maleic anhydride.

The analyst of Shengyi Society’s maleic anhydride products believes that downstream unsaturated resins have entered a shutdown cycle, maintaining a focus on essential demand and providing limited support for the maleic anhydride market; At present, the main factories of maleic anhydride are implementing price reductions, and the number of factory orders is limited. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will continue to decline in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 17th, the average selling price of PET is 6432 yuan/ton, and the price trend shows a strong upward trend.

This week, the new round of sanctions imposed by the United States on Russia has dealt a heavy blow to Russia’s oil supply, intensifying market concerns about supply shortages. At the same time, the cold wave weather experienced by the United States has further driven up energy demand. These favorable factors work together to drive up international oil prices. In addition, the maintenance of some facilities for the main raw material PTA has also led to a strong rebound in the polyester raw material market. On the other hand, the processing costs of the polyester bottle chip industry have remained low for a long time, which has prompted factories to increase their willingness to raise prices, and the focus of market transactions has also increased accordingly.

However, this week, downstream and terminal markets have been cautious about high priced goods, with low inquiry willingness and only some areas having urgent needs to follow up, resulting in limited overall trading volume. With the approaching Spring Festival holiday and the recent significant increase in bottle tablet prices, downstream markets are becoming more cautious and cautious, leading to poor trading volume and the possibility of the market falling into a situation of having value but no market.

Taking into account various factors, it is expected that international oil prices will continue to maintain strong fluctuations, providing support for the cost side. Although the supply has slightly decreased, the downstream market is cautious in entering the market, and the supply and demand sides are in a stalemate. However, due to the low processing costs in the industry, Shengyi Society expects that the polyester bottle chip market will mainly follow the rise in raw material prices next week. The market price in East China is expected to fluctuate between 6300-6600 yuan/ton. In the future, it is still necessary to closely monitor the follow-up equipment, demand situation, as well as the trends of the crude oil and PTA markets.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from January 2nd to 10th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market fell from 2779 yuan/ton to 2695 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 3.00% during the period, a month on month increase of 5.79%, and a year-on-year increase of 13.75%. The domestic methanol market is declining. With the recovery of some domestic shutdown methanol plants and the increase in load of some plants due to the good profits of methanol production enterprises, the domestic methanol production supply is mainly running at a high level. Some production enterprises still have inventory demand before the Spring Festival, but the downstream replenishment sentiment is generally average, with a focus on observation. Enterprises are lowering prices and offering discounts for shipments.

As of the close on January 10th, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2505, opened at 2590 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2607 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2578 yuan/ton. It closed at 2596 yuan/ton in the closing session, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s settlement, an increase of 0.78%. The trading volume was 498791 lots, and the position was 784625 lots, with a daily increase of -493.

In terms of cost, the thermal coal market has been operating steadily recently. At present, most coal mines in the production area are maintaining normal production, mainly implementing long-term cooperative shipping, and the overall coal supply level is stable. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.

On the demand side, downstream acetic acid: The southwest unit has returned to normal, and if there is no equipment failure and shutdown, the demand for acetic acid may increase; Downstream formaldehyde: Storage and parking plans for facilities in Qingzhou Hengxing, Henan Xinxing, and Binzhou Hengyun have led to a continued decrease in formaldehyde demand; Downstream dimethyl ether: Henan Xinlianxin plant has started operation, while other plants have no plans to shut down, and the demand for dimethyl ether remains relatively stable; MTBE、 There is currently no new start stop device for chloride, and the demand for methanol is stable. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.

On the supply side, the overall loss exceeds the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.

In terms of external markets, as of the close on January 9th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $357.00- $358.00 per ton, up $5 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 122.00-123.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 437.50-438.50 euros/ton, down 3 euros/ton.

Future forecast shows relatively abundant supply of goods. The sustained weakness of traditional downstream demand has limited impact on the market. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly experience range fluctuations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 30th, the average price of acetic acid was 2970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton or 0.34% compared to the price of 2980 yuan/ton on December 21st.

In late December, the acetic acid market fluctuated, with enterprise quotations rising first and then falling. On the supply side, the utilization rate of domestic production capacity has decreased, and factories in East China have reduced load and short-term shutdowns, supporting the strong rise in acetic acid prices. However, in the later stage, due to the end of long-term contracts, some manufacturers’ shipments weakened, and market prices were adjusted downward.

The upstream methanol market fluctuated at a high level. From December 21st to 30th, the average domestic market price increased from 2675.83 yuan/ton to 2745.83 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 2.61%. In late December, some areas in China experienced rainy and snowy weather, leading to an increase in shipping costs and supporting the exploration of methanol prices. At the same time, due to the expected reduction in imported supply and the expected shutdown of the Southwest Gas Head Methanol Plant, the port methanol inventory has entered the destocking channel, and the market’s bullish sentiment is strong, driving the domestic methanol market price to rise slightly.

The downstream acetic anhydride market saw a narrow rise, with the average ex factory price of acetic anhydride on December 30th at 4995.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.25% compared to the price of 4982.50 yuan/ton on December 21st. The upstream acetic acid market is in a stalemate, with limited cost of acetic anhydride. Downstream demand is the main factor, and the market transaction atmosphere is still acceptable. The supply and demand in the market are relatively balanced, and the price of acetic anhydride is stabilizing.

In terms of future predictions, analysts at Shengyi Society believe that there is currently little sales pressure on supply side manufacturers, with some companies experiencing a decrease in inventory and a slight increase in market prices; Downstream investors are adopting a wait-and-see attitude, and their enthusiasm for entering the market has increased. The trading atmosphere in the market has improved, and it is expected that the short-term acetic acid market may be strong and rise. We will pay attention to the follow-up situation of downstream investors in the future.

According to the commodity market analysis system, as of December 23, the DOP price was 8326.25 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 2.92% compared to the DOP price of 8576.25 yuan/ton on December 16. The price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, the cost of plasticizers has decreased, the profit of plasticizer DOP is high, the enthusiasm of plasticizer enterprises to start production has increased, the operating rate of plasticizers is high, and the supply of plasticizers is sufficient. The downstream PVC off-season is approaching, the demand for plasticizers is falling, the risk of excessive inventory of plasticizer DOP is intensifying, and the price of plasticizer DOP is fluctuating and falling.

Downstream demand is lukewarm

Downstream PVC product enterprises have low production rates, and the downstream market is traditionally off-season, resulting in a decrease in downstream PVC production. The weather in the north is gradually turning cold, and demand is weak; The downstream market is declining, and the downward pressure on plasticizers is increasing.

The cost of raw materials fluctuates and falls

According to the commodity market analysis system, as of December 23, the price of isooctanol was 7833.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 4.47% compared to the price of 8200 yuan/ton on December 16. In December, the production of isooctanol enterprises remained stable at a high level, and coupled with the continuous production of new octanol capacity, the supply of isooctanol increased significantly in December. The downstream demand increment is not as significant as the increment of octanol, and there is an oversupply of isooctanol, which increases the downward pressure on isooctanol and causes its price to fluctuate and fall.

Future expectations

The data analyst of plasticizer products believes that in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell this week, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, and the cost of plasticizer DOP decreased; In terms of demand, the off-season is approaching, and downstream production and inventory are expected to decrease, leading to a decline in demand for plasticizers; On the supply side, plasticizer companies have high profits, and their enthusiasm for starting work has increased. With high starting work, the supply of plasticizers has increased. In the future, the prices of raw materials will decline, and the cost of plasticizers will decrease; The off-season still exists, and demand is declining. Due to cost reduction and oversupply, it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, since December 1st, terminal demand has been weak, and the hydrogen peroxide market has fallen weakly. On December 20th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 760 yuan/ton, and on December 20th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 713 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.14% in price.

Weak terminal demand and declining hydrogen peroxide market

Since December 1st, terminal demand has remained sluggish, with manufacturers purchasing only moderate amounts of hydrogen peroxide, dominated by negative factors. The hydrogen peroxide market has weakened and fallen, with an overall quotation of 700-720 yuan/ton. On December 20th, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Shandong region was around 600 yuan/ton, which was weakly stable, while the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Hebei region was 680 yuan/ton, which was stable; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Anhui region is around 780 yuan/ton, which remains stable; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Hangzhou area is 950 yuan/ton, and the market remains stable.

Business Society Chemical Analysts believe that by the end of December, the demand for hydrogen peroxide terminals will continue to weaken, and the hydrogen peroxide market will continue to operate weakly in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda from the beginning of the week to the weekend was 1548 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 12.14%. On December 12th, the baking soda commodity index was 102.61, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 56.49% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (November 10, 2021), and an increase of 16.25% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running steadily, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is consolidating and running. The ex factory price of baking soda in Henan region is around 1450-1550 yuan/ton. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been consolidating this week. The current market average price is 1538 yuan/ton, and downstream customers tend to purchase according to their needs.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been consolidating recently, with a general trend in the upstream raw material soda ash market. Downstream areas of baking soda, such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food, have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

Since December, the phenol market in mainstream regions across the country has been rising, with an average increase of around 200-300 yuan/ton. As of the 9th, the phenol market in East China was quoted at 8018 yuan/ton. The sentiment of traders reluctant to sell and reporting high prices is highlighted. During the same period, the price of raw material pure benzene has risen, and market benefits are concentrated. Traders have steadily pushed up their offers, with the focus accelerating. According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic phenol market price was 7787 yuan/ton on December 1 and 8018 yuan/ton on December 9, with a 2.95% increase in early December.

The port inventory is low, and there is no replenishment of imported cargo. The cargo statistics in the East China region are 12000 tons, and have reached 6000 tons. The inventory at Jiangyin Port is at a low level of 6000 tons. The tightening of spot supply has highlighted the sentiment of traders being reluctant to sell and reporting high prices. During the same period, the price of raw material pure benzene has risen, and market benefits are relatively concentrated. Led by the increase in factory opening prices in the middle of the week, the pace of the upward trend has accelerated. With the continuous rise in prices, downstream demand is mainly driven by high prices, and trading has slowed down.

Sinopec Huadong phenol is listed at a price range of 7900-8000 yuan/ton. Sinopec North China phenol is listed at a price range of 8000-8050 yuan/ton. As of the 9th, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country are as follows:

Region/ Quotation on the 9th/ Zhou’s ups and downs

East China region/ 7900./ 150

Shandong region/ 8000./ 200

Surrounding areas of Yanshan Mountain/ 8050./ 200

South China region/ 8050./ 200

On the demand side, with the continuous rise of phenol, terminal enterprises are mainly driven by rigid demand and cautious in chasing high prices, which constrains the demand side. The downstream bisphenol A spot market has remained lukewarm, with stable market offers and negotiations in the East China region at 8900-9100 yuan/ton. There is currently no significant news impact on the market.

Business Society expects the phenol market to remain strong in the short term, with little pressure on spot supply. However, downstream companies are cautious about chasing high prices, and there is limited room for the market to continue rising.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from December 2nd to 6th, the domestic ethanol price fell from 5437 yuan/ton to 5375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.15% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 20.96%. The domestic ethanol market is weak and declining, with some areas affected by previous snowfall, logistics disruptions, and shipment pressure. In addition, there is abundant spot supply, and there is obvious pressure for enterprises to reduce inventory. At the same time, the demand side support is poor, with rigid demand procurement being the main factor, resulting in a decline in ethanol prices.

On the cost side, the price of raw material corn is fluctuating strongly, and the profit margin of fermented corn ethanol is narrowly declining; The profit margin of ethanol has been compressed.

On the supply side, the supply in various regions remains stable, and the operating load is gradually increasing. In some areas, there may be an increase in spot supply. There are hardly any favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.

On the demand side, Baijiu consumption support is acceptable; Methyl ethyl ester maintains stable purchasing volume for anhydrous materials; Ethyl acetate production has slightly rebounded according to reports. The short-term impact of ethanol demand is expected to break through.

The future forecast shows that there is significant inventory pressure on enterprises and limited support from the demand side. Ethanol analysts from Shengyi Society predict that there is still room for a short-term downturn in the domestic ethanol market.