1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus market was lowered this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus on Monday was 29800 yuan/ton, while on Friday it was 28500 yuan/ton. During the week, the price decreased by 4.36%.

2、 Market analysis

The price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus market fell this week. At present, the overall market trading situation of yellow phosphorus is not good, and there is light demand on the market. Some enterprises are parking, and the operating rate of yellow phosphorus is slowly decreasing. The on-site inventory is still acceptable, and the supply and demand are still relatively stagnant. The enterprise will not provide external quotations for the time being, and the actual order will be discussed in detail. Downstream procurement is more cautious, with moderate stocking and a focus on immediate demand. As of now, the mainstream quotation is around 26000-29000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

As of April 13, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China is around 1106 yuan/ton; Compared to April 9, 2023 (reference price of phosphate rock is 1110 yuan/ton), the price has been reduced by 4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.36%. At present, due to the weak operation of downstream yellow phosphorus, the trading atmosphere inside the phosphate ore field is light, and the new orders of phosphate ore in Yunnan region are generally traded. The phosphate ore data analyst of the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market mainly focuses on narrow range consolidation and operation, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand information.

In terms of coke, according to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the second round of increase and decrease in the coke market was implemented from April 7 to April 14, 2023. As of April 14, the price of quasi first-class metallurgical coke in Shanxi region was 2386 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.05%. During this cycle, the coke market remained weak, with the second round of increases and decreases falling to the ground, with a cumulative decrease of 100-200 yuan/ton. After two rounds of decreases, the market atmosphere remained slightly weak.

As for phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid dropped sharply this week. The average price of phosphoric acid on Monday was 7450 yuan/ton, while on Friday it was 7137.5 yuan/ton. During the week, the price was significantly reduced by 4.19%. At present, the demand for phosphoric acid in the market is sluggish and the market is weak. The trend of raw phosphorus ore and yellow phosphorus is poor, and the phosphoric acid market is operating weakly. Downstream demand is weak, and the mentality of buying up instead of buying down has increased.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that the current decline in upstream phosphate rock prices and the second round of lifting and lowering in the coke market have resulted in weak cost support. The downstream market has significantly decreased, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is obvious. Overall, the atmosphere in the yellow phosphorus market is relatively empty. It is expected that yellow phosphorus will continue to be weak in the short term, and pay attention to changes in the news.

The market for nitrile rubber saw a significant decline in March. According to monitoring by Business Society, as of March 31st, the price was 15850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.04% from 17425 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In March, the price of nitrile rubber raw materials significantly decreased, and downstream purchases were mostly made according to demand. The market supply was slightly lower in the early stage and stable in the later stage. The listed prices of nitrile rubber enterprises were significantly reduced, and market quotations gradually declined.

In March, the prices of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile decreased, and the cost of nitrile rubber significantly decreased. According to the monitoring of Business Society, as of March 31, the price of butadiene was 8551 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.96% from 9712 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of March 31st, the price of acrylonitrile was 10050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.29% from 10500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The recovery of demand in the downstream product industry of nitrile rubber is slow, with small orders being the main procurement for nitrile rubber, and few market transactions. The demand for nitrile rubber is relatively weak.

Future forecast: Business Society nitrile analysts believe that the current decline in raw material prices is due to a decline in nitrile rubber costs, while downstream demand support is weak. It is expected that the nitrile rubber market will be weak and consolidate in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, on March 31, the domestic carbon black N220 was quoted at 11600 yuan/ton. This month, the domestic carbon black market price fell first and then rose, and the current volatility is relatively strong.

Cost: The overall operation of the domestic high-temperature coal tar market was weak this month. At the end of the month, the decline in the domestic high-temperature coal tar new auction price slowed down. The decline in mainstream regions was basically within 100 yuan, and some low-end prices even warmed. This month, carbon black cost support is weak, and downstream deep processing and carbon black enterprises are still operating at a loss. The market is affected by buying up and not buying down. Downstream enterprises are cautious in signing new orders, and the transaction atmosphere is light. The downstream market continues to hold down prices, and there is a lot of negative sentiment in the market. It is expected that the coal tar market will continue to operate in a weak manner in the short term.

Supply and demand side: Currently, the operating rate of carbon black enterprises remains stable as a whole, and some factories and devices are undergoing maintenance. Due to the weak price of raw materials, downstream enterprises are mostly bullish on the aftermarket of carbon black, resulting in weak supply and demand in the carbon black market.

In terms of downstream tire companies, the overall operating rate has maintained good, but affected by the continuous decline in carbon black prices, companies have a strong bearish atmosphere towards the carbon black market, slow shipments, strong market price depression, and moderate enthusiasm for taking goods. It is reported that some tire companies have production reduction plans in April, and the negotiation of tire orders in April is expected to be relatively stagnant. Other customers in the rubber product industry are still in a wait-and-see mood, and there is still a resistance to the current carbon black price, mainly due to the need for procurement.

Overall, the price of raw materials has continued to decline significantly, and the support for carbon black prices has weakened. Although major downstream tire companies have started construction well, they are bearish on the carbon black market, with strong market pressure sentiment. It is comprehensively expected that carbon black will operate steadily, moderately, and weakly in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province fluctuated and rose in March. The price of isooctanol increased by 4.49% from 9228.57 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9642.86 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price at the end of the month fell 25.63% year-on-year.

On March 29, the isooctanol commodity index stood at 71.22, unchanged from yesterday, down 48.20% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.50 (2021-08-08), and up 102.62% from the lowest point of 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

From the perspective of supply side, the mainstream market price of isooctanol in Shandong increased slightly this month, with average inventory.

Cost side: slight decline in propylene market

In March, the factory price of propylene fluctuated and fell, dropping from 7522.60 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7096.60 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 5.66%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 15.57% compared to the same period last year. Insufficient cost support has a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

Demand side: slight increase in DOP market

DOP market prices rose slightly in March. The price increased by 1.01% from 9950.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 10050.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month. At the end of the month, prices fell 18.29% year-on-year. The downstream market rose slightly, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol increased.

Looking at the future market: In the first ten days of mid April, the domestic isooctanol market may fluctuate slightly, with consolidation being the main trend. Upstream propylene prices fell slightly, with insufficient cost support. Downstream DOP prices showed a downward trend at the end of the month, and downstream manufacturers’ enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol weakened. Multiple negative effects, product trend downward under supply and demand contradiction. The isooctanol analyst from the Business Agency believes that in the short term, under the influence of multiple factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, the domestic isooctanol market may suffer from minor fluctuations and declines.

Acetic anhydride prices fluctuated and rose in March

According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, as of March 29, the price of acetic anhydride was 5487.50 yuan/ton, up 4.28% from 5262.50 yuan/ton on March 1. The price of raw materials fluctuated and increased, and acetic anhydride enterprises started at a low level. In March, the price of acetic anhydride fluctuated and increased.

In March, the acetic anhydride equipment of Yankuang Enterprise started at a low level, and the acetic anhydride equipment was scheduled to be overhauled for 15 days. The supply of acetic anhydride decreased, and the demand for acetic anhydride temporarily stabilized. In March, the price of acetic anhydride fluctuated and increased.

Acetic acid prices fluctuated and rose in March

As can be seen from the acetic acid price trend chart of the business community, as of March 29, the acetic acid price was 3300 yuan/ton, up 4.76% from the 3150 yuan/ton price of acetic anhydride on March 1. In March, the price of acetic acid fluctuated and increased, while the support for the increase in acetic anhydride cost remained. The upward momentum for acetic anhydride increased.

Methanol prices fluctuated and fell in March

As can be seen from the methanol price trend chart of the Business Club, as of March 29, the methanol price was 2540.83 yuan/ton, down 7.13% from the March 1 price of 2735.83 yuan/ton. In March, the price of methanol fluctuated and fell, the cost of acetic acid decreased, and the price of raw materials for carbonyl acetic anhydride decreased. The downward pressure on acetic anhydride was high.

Future prospects

Analysts from the Business Agency’s acetic anhydride data believe that in March, the price of acetic acid fluctuated and rose, while the price of methanol fluctuated and fell, while support for the rise in acetic anhydride costs remained. In late March, Yankuang’s acetic anhydride equipment started at a low level, and the acetic anhydride equipment was scheduled to be shut down for maintenance for 15 days, resulting in a decrease in acetic anhydride supply. In the future, support for the rising cost of acetic anhydride remains, while supply and demand remain weak. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will stabilize strongly in the future.

According to the monitoring data of Business News Agency, the price trend of TDI in East China this week was weak and downward. On March 26, the average market price in East China was 17866.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.29% compared to the price of 18100.00 yuan/ton on March 20, and a decrease of 8.38% compared to the monthly price.

This week, the TDI market was operating in a weak state, with quiet information on the market, tight supply of goods from suppliers, and a strong willingness to undercut prices. The demand end market was subject to sluggish trading. The downstream performance of TDI was flat, with few market inquiries, and the trade market atmosphere was cold. In order to maintain the pace of shipment, some shipholders lowered their offers, with significant pessimism on the market and a downward shift in the focus of market transactions. As of the 26th, the quotation range for domestic products in the distribution market in East China was around 17600 yuan/ton, The quotation range for Shanghai goods is 17600-17800 yuan/ton, and negotiation based on actual orders.

The upstream toluene market is running smoothly, with the domestic average price of toluene at around 7050 yuan/ton as of March 26, which is flat compared to the price on March 20. The toluene market has sufficient supply, and the enthusiasm of downstream buyers is moderate. The industry has a wait-and-see attitude, and the price of toluene has not changed much.

After market analysis, TDI data analysts from the business agency believe that the TDI market continues to play a game of supply and demand, with terminal demand tracking down, supply side supply is tight but support is limited, downstream suppliers are resistant to high-priced supply, and TDI prices are weak. In the short term, TDI market consolidation and operation will be followed up with specific attention.

This week (3.20~3.27), the market of dichloromethane declined in a weak manner. As of March 27, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2680 yuan/ton, down 3.16% from 2767 yuan/ton last Monday. The price of raw material methanol slightly decreased, while the cost support for dichloromethane slightly weakened; The downstream refrigerant R32 just needs support for purchasing dichloromethane during the peak season, but the supply of methane chloride is loose, with the factory price of dichloromethane enterprises slightly adjusted, and the price of dichloromethane slightly decreased.

This week (3.20~3.27), the methane chloride unit continued to operate at a high level, and the supply of dichloromethane was loose.

This week (3.20~3.27), the price of raw material methanol decreased slightly, and the cost support for dichloromethane was weak. According to the business news agency, as of March 27, the spot price of methanol was 2593 yuan/ton, down 0.95% from 2618 yuan/ton last Monday. The low consolidation of international crude oil prices, coupled with fluctuations in the domestic raw material coal range, will not lead to a significant upward trend in methanol prices in the near future, and the cost of dichloromethane is expected to be stable and weak.

Due to the impact of the reduction in total supply during the year and the arrival of the traditional peak season, the market price of refrigerant R32 this week (3.20~3.27) was strong, and the start of construction was stable, providing some support for dichloromethane.

Future Forecast: According to the methane chloride data analyst from Business News, the downstream of dichloromethane just needs support, but the methane chloride industry is still at a high level with loose supply and weak cost support. Due to the fundamental game of the industrial chain, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will be weak and consolidate in the short term.

From March 17 to March 24, 2023, the weekly bidding price of crude benzene was mainly down, at 5804 yuan/ton at the end of last week, and at 5686 yuan/ton at the end of this week, with a weekly decrease of 2.03%.

In terms of crude oil, international oil prices have fallen significantly since mid March. As of the 23rd, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was at $69.96/barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was at $75.50/barrel. The price of crude oil in the market fell. In the middle of the month, the collapse of a bank in Silicon Valley in the United States, coupled with the disappointing inflation report data in the United States, triggered market concerns about financial risks. In addition, the anxiety of Credit Suisse hit the financial market, putting pressure on risky assets such as stock markets and crude oil, and adding to the negative impact of the unexpected growth of crude oil inventories in the United States, which subsequently dragged down oil demand and caused crude oil prices to plummet. The pressure of the banking crisis began to ease in late October, and the oil market rebounded from a low level. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25bp, which met market expectations and suggested that the pace of interest rate hikes would be suspended. The decline of the US dollar supported the rise of oil prices.

The ex-factory price of Sinopec pure benzene increased by 100 yuan/ton on March 8, 2023, and is currently implemented at 7200 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7100 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7200 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7203 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7150 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7200 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a histogram. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K column indicates the range of fluctuation. The K-column chart of pure benzene weekly shows that after entering July, the price of pure benzene has continuously declined, with a slight recovery in late August and early September. From October to December, the price mainly decreased, with a recovery in January. After February, the overall price fluctuated in a narrow range.

Industry chain: The pure benzene market slightly declined this week, while crude oil and styrene both rose at the beginning of the week, driving the pure benzene market up slightly. Downstream demand is moderate, and prices rose narrowly at the beginning of the week. In the middle and late stages, the trend of downstream styrene fluctuated, dragging down a slight decline in the price of pure benzene. However, enterprises such as Sinopec held up prices, and the overall market sentiment was on the sidelines, leading to a high market volatility trend. Hydrogenated benzene is affected by narrow fluctuations in pure benzene, with limited price volatility this week.

The crude benzene market has been operating weakly this week, with the main production area in Shandong Province executing 5760-5765 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton compared to last week’s auction price. In terms of supply, the operating rate of coking enterprises this week has not changed significantly compared to last week, and the crude benzene supply is stable. In terms of demand, some hydrogenation benzene units were started up this week, with a slight increase in the operating rate, and the demand for crude benzene was moderate. The downward trend in prices this week is mainly affected by the overall downward trend in the industrial chain, which has a strong downward pressure on prices in the downstream, and the overall downward trend in auction prices. Overall, the current performance of crude oil is weak, with insufficient support for pure benzene. The negative factors in the industrial chain are still strong, and it is expected that the overall weak operation of the industrial chain market will prevail in the short term.

According to the monitoring by the Business News Agency, the domestic ethanol market is in a weak state. From March 10th to 17th, the domestic ethanol price remained at a low level from 7171 yuan/ton to 7142 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.40% during the cycle, a year-on-year decrease of 1.19%, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.27%. Production enterprises in some regions have repeatedly lowered their prices, with an overall price adjustment range of around 150 yuan/ton. At the same time, downstream demand is flat, and traders are not moving fast. The short-term ethanol market has a weak focus.

On the cost side, the domestic corn market monitored by the Business Cooperative continued to be sluggish. On March 17th, the benchmark price of corn by the Business Cooperative was 2791.43 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.61% compared to the beginning of this month (2808.57 yuan/ton). In March, the willingness of farmers in the production area to sell grain continued to increase, and the overall supply of domestic corn market was relatively loose. After the corn inventory of ports and deep processing enterprises was replenished to a certain extent, the purchase price of corn was slightly reduced, driving the domestic corn market price to continue to be weak. The cost side of ethanol is empty.

On the supply side, this week, the overall ethanol market started operating with stable load, and the main production area operated with high load and increased supply. Guannan device is shut down, Jinchanglin device is shut down, and Changxing and Maibohui in Southern Jiangsu are started up. The negative impact of ethanol supply increases.

On the demand side, the chemical industry just needs to purchase, and the ethyl acetate may be overhauled in March and April, so the demand for Baijiu is stable. Short term ethanol demand is bearish.

According to the future market forecast, the cost support is insufficient, and the downstream demand is mainly rigid. Ethanol analysts from the Business News Agency predict that the domestic ethanol market will run in a weak trend in the short term.

This week (3.13~3.20), the market of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was weak and the price fell. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, as of March 20, the domestic price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was 11470 yuan/ton, down 2.96% from 11820 yuan/ton last Monday. The price of butadiene as a raw material decreased, and the cost support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber weakened; During the cycle, the factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber, a supplier of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber, was reduced by 300 yuan/ton, resulting in a slight decrease in merchant offers. According to the monitoring by the Business News Agency, as of March 20, the factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of Sinopec North China Sales Company was reported at 11100 yuan/ton. As of the 20th, the mainstream reports of Qilu, Yanshan, Yangzi, Dushanzi, Sichuan and other cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber markets were 11250-11600 yuan/ton, while the mainstream reports of private cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber markets were 11100-11200 yuan/ton.

This week (3.13~3.20), the price of raw butadiene fell, and the cost support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber weakened. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, as of March 20, the price of butadiene was at 8691 yuan/ton, down 5.18% from 9166 yuan/ton last Monday.

The natural rubber market fell during the week (3.13~3.20), which had a negative impact on cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, as of March 20, the price of natural rubber was 11340 yuan/ton, down 2.49% from 11630 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

This week (3.13~3.20), downstream tire starts fluctuated slightly, and due to the continuous decline in the price of natural rubber, the purchase of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was not positive. It is understood that by the middle of March 2023, the starting load of all steel tires for rubber tire enterprises in Shandong Province was 6.8%; The starting load of semi steel tires in domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.3%.

Future Market Forecast: Business Agency analysts believe that the current supply of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber fluctuates slightly, with the coexistence of enterprise maintenance and restart plans in the later stage; Downstream construction is basically stable compared to the early stage, and due to the low price of natural rubber, the procurement of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is not good. It is expected that cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will consolidate in a weak position in the short term.