According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China rose first and then fell this week (5.5-5.12). On May 5th, the average market price was 205310 yuan/ton, and on May 12th, the average market price was 201210 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 2%.

 

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The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have risen continuously for three months due to macroeconomic factors, and have fallen by 11.35% in a single month since February 2023. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has been fluctuating frequently recently, and the overall trend is weak. This week, tin prices have risen due to the news of the planned production halt in Wa State.

 

On the supply side: Currently, there is little overall change in domestic supply and demand, and the attitude of smelters towards high prices remains. The operating rate is relatively stable, and the supply at the mining end is still tight. In terms of demand, the overall operation is weak and there are few signs of recovery in the short term. Currently, the main application field of tin in China is the electronics industry. In the downstream consumption structure of refined tin metal, soldering tin accounts for about 44% of the market share, while tin plates account for about 16% of the market share. Therefore, the development of the electronics industry, including the new energy industry, has a significant impact on tin. The operating rate of solder enterprises has been basically stable in the near future, and it is expected that there will be no significant changes in the future. In terms of inventory, the tin inventory of the previous period of this week increased to 9673 tons, which is at a historical high, dragging down market sentiment. Overall, downstream demand is still weak, and the impact of domestic supply and demand on tin prices is still limited in the short term. In the future, it is still necessary to focus on the impact of domestic and foreign macro factors on the market.

 

On May 12, 2023, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reduced its tin inventory by 25 tons from 1610 tons

 

PVA 2088 (PVA BP20)

On May 14th, the base metal index stood at 1172 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 27.48% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 82.55% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

 

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, there were 8 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month in the list of commodity prices in the 19th week of 2023 (5.8-5.12), with dysprosium oxide (3.93%), dysprosium iron alloy (3.47%), and metal praseodymium (2.63%) among the top 3 commodities. There are a total of 12 products with a month on month decrease, and 2 products with a decrease of over 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the monitored products in this sector; The top three products with a decline were nickel (-8.00%), silver (-5.31%), and copper (-3.84%). This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.54%.

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Recently (5.1-5.12), the acrylonitrile market has slightly increased. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of May 12th, the price of bulk water in the acrylonitrile market was 9862 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.52% from the 9662 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At present, the self pickup price of acrylonitrile in the market is between 9700 to 10000 yuan/ton. The weak decline in raw material prices has led to a slight decline in the cost of acrylonitrile, while the demand side is just in need of support. In addition, the shutdown and load reduction of some enterprises have slightly boosted the market atmosphere, leading to a slight increase in the acrylonitrile market.

 

PVA 2699

Since May, the domestic operating rate of acrylonitrile has remained around 6.5%, and the operating load of Fushun Petrochemical has decreased from 90% to around 70%; The acrylonitrile unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical was reduced from full load to 50% load operation at the end of April; Lihuayi Acrylonitrile Plant will be shut down for maintenance in early May; The pressure on the supply side of acrylonitrile has slightly eased.

 

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Recently (from May 1st to May 12th), the raw material propylene market has slightly declined, and the cost support for acrylonitrile continues to weaken. According to monitoring by Business Society, as of May 12th, the domestic propylene price was 6880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.44% from 7052 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

 

Downstream ABS prices continue to decline, with industry device starts slightly dropping to around 85%, weakening support for acrylonitrile demand; The domestic nitrile rubber has experienced slight fluctuations, while the price of polyacrylamide has slightly decreased, with weak support for acrylonitrile.

 

Future Forecast: Business Society Acrylonitrile Analysts believe that the current supply pressure of acrylonitrile has slightly eased, and although there is still a strong demand for support, the demand side is weaker compared to the previous period. In addition, the cost side is declining, and it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will fluctuate slightly in the short term.

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Domestic price trend of xylene:

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price trend has temporarily stabilized this week. As of the weekend, the domestic factory price of paraxylene was 9000 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 9000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and has increased by 1.12% year-on-year.

 

There has been little change in the domestic supply of xylene, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 60%. The external dependence of PX products is about 29%. Recently, the PX external market price has slightly declined. As of the 5th day, the closing price of the Asian paraxylene market was 997-999 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1022-1024 dollars/ton CFR China. The decline of external market price is bad for the domestic market. Recently, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia is relatively stable. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene devices in Asia is less than 60%, and the price trend of the domestic paraxylene market is temporarily stable.

 

This week, the price trend of crude oil has declined. As of the 5th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was at $71.34 per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was at $75.30 per barrel. Mainly affected by concerns about economic recession, investors are preparing for further interest rate hikes this week. Meanwhile, the US Treasury Department has issued a warning that the US government’s debt ceiling is within reach, and the Biden administration and Congress are discussing how to avoid debt defaults. The Federal Reserve is in a dilemma of raising interest rates to combat inflation while avoiding debt defaults. Market risk aversion has escalated, causing heavy losses to both the stock and oil markets. On the 5th, under the strong influence of the US non farm employment data, the price of crude oil rose strongly. On the whole, the price trend of crude oil market declined slightly, and the price trend of domestic paraxylene was temporarily stable.

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The price trend of the downstream PTA market declined this week. As of the 6th day, the average price of the PTA market was about 5985 yuan/ton, and the price decline this week was 3.16%. In terms of PTA supply, the current social inventory of PTA is maintained at around 2.8 million tons, and the market is showing a slight accumulation of inventory. Downstream polyester just needs to be restocked, and the factory is allowing profits to be shipped at the end of the month. The profit performance of various varieties remains sluggish, and inventory continues to accumulate. Polyester production has recently slightly declined, and the current effect of enterprise production reduction is still not significant. The terminal weaving startup rate has continued to decline to below 55%, and the domestic market has moderately weakened. Foreign trade orders have not improved, which has affected the weak and stable trend of xylene prices.

 

Chen Ling, a PX analyst at the business agency, believes that the recent price range of crude oil has fluctuated. Recently, some paraxylene devices have been restarted, and PX supply has increased. Later, the PTA market has shown a weak pattern, and the terminal demand side has shown a weak pattern. It is expected that the price of paraxylene market will decline slightly in the later period.

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, there were a total of 2 products that rose and 4 products that fell on the list of fluorine chemical prices in April 2023. The main commodities on the rise include fluorite and hydrofluoric acid; The main commodities falling include chloroform, aluminum fluoride, R22, and R134a. The fluctuation range of various fluorine chemical products in April is as follows:

 

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Fluorite, also known as “fluorite”, is a strategic mineral and one of the scarce resources in China. It is a source product of the fluorine chemical industry. In April, the price of fluorite slightly increased, and domestic fluorite enterprises had a low operating rate. Backward mines will continue to be phased out, and in terms of adding new mines, mineral investigation work remains challenging. Mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and the operation of fluorite mines is severely insufficient. In addition, in some areas, non-metallic mine accidents have occurred, and the requirements of environmental protection and emergency management departments have become stricter. The difficulty of mining operation has increased, and domestic fluorite raw materials are tightening. The operation of fluorite flotation devices is limited, and the price trend of fluorite has slightly increased:

 

Hydrofluoric acid: In April, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid rose slightly. At the end of the month, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was 10271.43 yuan/ton. The price of hydrofluoric acid rose 4.81% in April. At the beginning of April, the price of hydrofluoric acid rose sharply. Later, it was in the stage of digesting the increase, but the market trend of hydrofluoric acid declined at the end of the month. In April, some units were still shut down, but the hydrofluoric acid market was fully supplied. In addition, the downstream refrigerant purchase order was poor at the end of the month, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid declined. On the whole, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market rose in April.

 

Refrigerant: The market for downstream refrigerant products at the terminal has slightly declined, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry has not changed much. Recently, there has been sufficient refrigerant supply, which has led to a slight decrease in the price of domestic refrigerant R22. The load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, and inventory is within a reasonable range. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low loads, and the price trend of R134a is declining. Currently, on-demand procurement is the main trend, while downstream enterprises are not operating high. Traders have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the actual transaction situation is light. Currently, the market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 25000-25500 yuan/ton, and some enterprises have not resumed production. Demand orders are still small, and the market is stagnant and declining. Overall, the refrigerant market is not good.

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

Aluminium fluoride: In April, the price of aluminium fluoride declined. At the end of the month, the price was 9525 yuan/ton, and the price fell 2.81% in April. The sharp contradiction between supply and demand of aluminium fluoride, serious overcapacity, and poor downstream demand led to the decline of aluminium fluoride market price. Recently, about 50% of aluminum fluoride enterprises have started construction, with downstream procurement mainly focused on rigid demand and a two-way low sentiment. The demand for aluminum fluoride remains weak, and the trend of aluminum fluoride has declined.

 

Cryolite: In April, the domestic market trend of cryolite remained temporarily stable, with raw materials facing environmental and safety requirements, resulting in tight spot prices. Although prices have slightly decreased in the early stage, cost support is still present. Cryolite enterprises are mainly wait-and-see, and some manufacturers adjust based on their own shipment situation. Terminal downstream destocking is weak, demand for cryolite is weak, and the cryolite market is weak and stable.

 

Trichloromethane: In April, the market for trichloromethane plummeted significantly. At the end of the month, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2362 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 11.68% from 2675 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material methanol fluctuates weakly, and the cost support for trichloromethane is weak; The price of downstream refrigerant R22 slightly decreased at the end of the month, and there is a strong demand for support for trichloromethane but no new support; Methane chloride production fluctuates slightly, while the supply of trichloromethane is generally loose; At the beginning of the month, due to the decrease in methanol prices and the restart of the Meilan plant, the market for trichloromethane fell. In April, the factory price of enterprises was significantly reduced, and later transactions were light, leading to a decline in the market for trichloromethane.

 

Prediction: The supply of fluorite ore is unlikely to improve in May, and the operating rate of the fluorite industry is slowly increasing. The confidence of fluorite enterprises in raising prices remains strong, and fluorite prices remain high. However, the downstream market price of hydrofluoric acid products fell slightly, the high price was insufficient, the trend of the hydrofluoric acid market declined, the refrigerant industry started in a downturn, raw material procurement was not active, and the refrigerant market declined slightly. Fluorochemical industry was affected by downstream demand. It is expected that the fluorochemical industry market in May will be difficult to be optimistic.

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According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market rose first and then fell in April, with low volatility at the end of the month. At the beginning of April, the market was at 7138 yuan/ton, and on April 27th, the average price was 7098 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 0.56%, a decrease of 15.54% compared to the same period last year.

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

As of April 27th, the mainstream prices of propylene in different regions in China are as follows:

 

Region/ April 27th

Shandong region/ 7030-7050 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 6650-6700 yuan/ton

East China region/ 7000-7050 yuan/ton

In the first half of April, propylene fluctuated and rose mainly, with a significant jump in crude oil prices at the beginning of the month and continued to rise. The positive cost side drove up propylene prices. At the same time, some devices in Shandong region have been shut down for maintenance, and supply has been tightened, driving the continuous rise in propylene prices. In the second half of April, international oil prices fell and propylene prices rose to high levels. There was a strong atmosphere of resistance in the downstream, and trading turned weak. Propylene companies sold out and the market continued until the end of the month. As of April 26th, the mainstream quotation in the Shandong propylene market is 7030-7050 yuan/ton.

 

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On the cost side: In April, the prices of upstream propylene products have fluctuated, while the prices of propane and methanol continue to decline. The prices of liquefied gas and naphtha have increased, but their support for propylene is limited. On the demand side: downstream derivatives of propylene have seen more declines and less gains, while the main downstream polypropylene is generally weak. Other downstream products have performed average, and the demand side remains strong.

 

Propylene analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that the current propylene market is dominated by demand, and the downstream procurement atmosphere is relatively weak. The upstream market is expected to enter May due to a weak and volatile short-term market.

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Acetic anhydride prices fluctuated and fell in April

 

PVA 2699

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 26th, the price of acetic anhydride was 5450 yuan/ton, a fluctuation decrease of 0.23% compared to the price of 5462.50 yuan/ton on April 1st. The price of raw material acetic acid fluctuated and fell, weakening cost support, and the price of acetic anhydride fluctuated and fell in April.

 

Acetic acid prices fluctuated and fell in April

 

According to the market analysis system of acetic acid products in the Business Society, as of April 26, the price of acetic acid was 3250 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.02% compared to the price of 3283.33 yuan/ton on April 1. In April, the price of acetic acid fluctuated and fell. Acetic acid companies started at a low level, and the supply of acetic acid was insufficient. The support for the rise in acetic acid prices weakened, and the downward pressure increased. In the future, the downward pressure on acetic anhydride increased.

 

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Methanol prices fluctuated and fell in an N-shaped pattern in April

 

According to the methanol commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, as of April 26, the price of methanol was 2491.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 2.73% compared to the price of methanol on April 1, which was 2561.67 yuan/ton. In April, the price of methanol fluctuated and fell, while the cost of acetic acid decreased. In the future, the downward pressure on acetic anhydride increased.

 

Future prospects

 

Analysts from Business Society’s Acetic Anhydride Data believe that in April, the prices of acetic acid and methanol fluctuated and fell, resulting in a decrease in acetic anhydride costs, low operating rates among acetic anhydride manufacturers, and insufficient supply of acetic anhydride. In the future, the cost of acetic anhydride has decreased and the supply is temporarily stable. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will weaken and stabilize in the future.

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The high price of aluminum has fallen back

 

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on April 25, 2023, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 18843.33 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.37%, and an increase of 0.89% compared to the aluminum price of 18676.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (April 1).

 

In the long run, after the current high price has fallen, it has been fluctuating sideways within the range of 17500 to 19500 yuan/ton. In mid April, aluminum prices improved, breaking through 19000 yuan/ton within the month, and starting to decline this week.

 

Overview of recent market trends and motivations

 

The insufficient precipitation in the southwest and northwest has triggered a trend of reduced production of electrolytic aluminum, driving up the early aluminum price market. Recently, the hype has been released, and the high aluminum price has slightly declined.

 

Overview of basic data on supply and demand

 

Inventory data: The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased significantly in April. Inventory data shows that as of April 24th, the social inventory of mainstream regions in China was 838000 tons, a decrease of 132000 tons compared to the inventory of 220000 tons removed on March 30th and the historical inventory of the same period in April 2022.

 

Import and export data:

 

Raw material end:

 

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on April 20th, China’s import volume of alumina (excluding artificial corundum) in March was 70008.60 tons, a decrease of 61.78% month on month and 62.98% year-on-year. Among them, Indonesia is the largest supplier, importing 32041.97 tons of alumina from the country that month, a decrease of 60.96% month on month and a significant increase of 2076.72% year-on-year.

 

In March, China’s alumina exports reached 50000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 313.6%; From January to March, the cumulative export volume was 31 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1362.9%.

 

PVA 0588 ( PVA BP05)

In March, China imported 12.05 million tons of aluminum ore sand and concentrate, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%; From January to March, the cumulative import of aluminum ore sand and concentrate reached 35.65 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%.

 

Raw aluminum:

 

According to customs data, the total import volume of domestic raw aluminum in March 2023 was 72100 tons, a decrease of 6.4% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 82.8%. The total export volume of raw aluminum in March was 5282 tons, a year-on-year increase of 149.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 87.5%. In March, the domestic raw aluminum trade showed a net import of 66800 tons, compared to a net export of 2826 tons in the same period last year. In the first quarter of 2023, the total net import of domestic raw aluminum reached 213000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 804%.

 

The latest data from the General Administration of Customs shows that in March 2023, China exported 497400 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year-on-year decrease of 16.3%; From January to March, the cumulative export volume was 1.3778 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15.4%. In March, China imported 205500 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%; From January to March, the cumulative import volume was 574800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%.

 

In terms of downstream aluminum products: In the first quarter of 2023, the total export volume of aluminum products in China was approximately 1.312 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15%; The year-on-year decline in aluminum exports in March was significant, mainly due to a 23.5% year-on-year decrease in plate and strip exports. Other sectors recorded an increase year-on-year, with aluminum profile exports significantly increasing both month on month and year on year.

 

Production data:

 

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s alumina production in March 2023 was 6.812 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%; The cumulative production from January to March was 19.784 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%.

 

The production of electrolytic aluminum in March was 3.367 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%; The cumulative production from January to March was 10.102 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%.

 

The aluminum production in March was 5.789 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%; The cumulative production from January to March was 14.323 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%.

 

The aluminum alloy production in March was 1.323 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.0%; The cumulative production from January to March was 3.129 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%.

 

Future market forecast

 

From the supply side perspective, production remained stable in April, and inventory data showed a clear trend of inventory depletion in the electrolytic aluminum industry. The main game point currently lies in the actual supply and demand changes in the later stage. It is expected that aluminum prices will mainly fluctuate around 18800 yuan/ton in the short term, and we will be watching downstream consumption intensity in the near future.

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Recent price trends of urea

 

PVA 0599 (PVA BF05)

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the price of urea in the domestic urea market fell slightly this week, from 2708.12 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2675.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 1.22%. Weekend prices have decreased by 9.66% compared to the same period last year. On April 23, the urea commodity index was 124.42, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 18.32% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 123.78% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

 

Reduced cost support, average downstream demand, and abundant urea supply

 

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream price of urea in China has slightly decreased this week.

 

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chains, it can be seen that there have been ups and downs in the urea upstream market this week. The price of liquefied natural gas has slightly increased, rising from 4206.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 4524.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 7.56%. The weekend price has decreased by 35.19% compared to the same period last year; The price of anthracite was adjusted at a low level. This week, the price of anthracite in Yangquan (washing block) was 1260 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; The price of liquid ammonia has dropped significantly, from 3316.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3050.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 8.04%. The weekend price has decreased by 38.84% compared to the same period last year. Upstream raw material prices fluctuate, with average support for urea prices. The downstream melamine price of urea has slightly increased this week, from 7700.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7725.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.32%.

 

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From a demand perspective: Agricultural demand is average, while industrial demand is normal. In some southern regions, rice has started to prepare and use fertilizers, and agricultural demand is average. The operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant is acceptable, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is average. The board and melamine enterprises are operating normally, and the main focus is on purchasing just in need. From a supply perspective, the daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, indicating sufficient supply.

 

Small fluctuation and decline in the future market

 

In late April, the domestic urea market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. Urea analysts from Business Society believe that there are ups and downs in the upstream of urea, and the cost of urea is generally supported. Downstream agricultural demand is average, while industrial demand is normal. The daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, with sufficient supply. In the future, urea may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and decline.

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Recent price trends of calcium carbide

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have slightly decreased this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China dropped from 3083.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2983.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 3.24%. Weekend prices have decreased by 26.34% compared to the same period last year. On April 22, the calcium carbide commodity index was 78.17, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 63.17% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 40.87% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

 

Insufficient upstream support, average downstream demand

 

From the supply side perspective, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have slightly decreased this week, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

 

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The upstream semicarbon market maintained stable operation, and the downstream PVC market price rose slightly. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal is around 1290-1400 yuan/ton, and the price is temporarily stable. The PVC market price this week rose from 5944.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6002.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 0.13%. Compared to the same period last year, it decreased by 32.94% year-on-year. The price of PVC market rose slightly, and downstream customers were not enthusiastic about calcium carbide procurement. The downstream PVC market had a negative impact on calcium carbide prices.

 

Calcium carbide may fluctuate and decline in the aftermarket

 

In late April, the calcium carbide market may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and declines. The price of raw material blue charcoal remains stable and the cost support is average. The downstream PVC market has been weak and there is insufficient downstream demand. In late April, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fluctuate and decline in a narrow range, with consolidation being the main trend.

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1、 Price trend

 

sulphamic acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market for imported potassium chloride has stabilized at a low level this week, with a price of 3512.50 yuan/ton. On April 16th, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 111.51, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 36.13% from the cycle’s highest point of 174.60 points (2022-06-21), and an increase of 91.43% from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from March 1st, 2012 to present)

 

2、 Market analysis

 

The prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers are temporarily stable this week. The port’s 62% self raised price of white potassium is around 3200-3300 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is around 3150-3250 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2800-2900 yuan/ton.

 

From the downstream market situation of potassium chloride, the factory price of potassium carbonate has slightly decreased this week, from 8940.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8840.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.12%. The weekend price has decreased by 2.50% compared to the same period last year. The factory price of potassium nitrate slightly decreased this week, from 5650.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5575.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.33%, a year-on-year decrease of 20.92% compared to the same period last year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream customers’ demand for potassium chloride has weakened.

 

3、 Future Market Forecast

 

In late April, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and decline in a narrow range, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge have stabilized at low levels. The downstream market of potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, with primary demand for procurement. International potassium fertilizer prices continue to decline. Potassium chloride analysts from Business Society believe that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.

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