According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price trend of the domestic ammonium nitrate market was temporarily stable this week. As of the weekend, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 4030 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the week’s price of 4030 yuan/ton, down 12.96% year on year.

This week, the price trend of the domestic ammonium nitrate market was temporarily stable, and the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices were operating stably. Recently, the supply of goods on the site was sufficient, the goods on the site were generally shipped, the manufacturer’s inventory was not high, the price of liquid ammonia at the upstream of the terminal was volatile, the price of nitric acid was low, and the price of ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable. Recently, the shipping market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has been normal, and downstream purchases are on demand. Recently, downstream demand for nitro compound fertilizers has been normal, while domestic procurement in the downstream civilian explosive industry is average. Domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have not started production high, and the price of ammonium nitrate has been stable recently. As of now, the mainstream negotiation prices in Shaanxi region are 4900-5100 yuan/ton, Shandong region is 3900-4100 yuan/ton, and Hebei region is 4000-4100 yuan/ton.

The price trend of concentrated nitric acid in China has declined this week, with an average price of 2033.33 yuan/ton as of the 2nd, a decrease of 1.61% compared to the price of 2066.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Mainstream enterprises in East China offer prices ranging from 2000 to 2200 yuan/ton, while northern and central China offer prices ranging from 1900 to 2000 yuan/ton. At present, the pressure on the supply side of the concentrated nitric acid market is not decreasing, demand continues to be weak, and costs are declining. The supply of the concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the market mainly relies on orders. The market volume is average, and industry insiders are mostly wait-and-see. The on-site price of nitric acid is decreasing, and the market situation of ammonium nitrate is weak and stable.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia has slightly increased this week. As of the weekend, the price of liquid ammonia was 2950 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.57% compared to the price of 2933.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Recently, the operation of liquid ammonia manufacturers’ devices has been stable, and the inventory of manufacturers is still acceptable. There has been little change in the amount of ammonia released in China, and some merchants have seen a slight increase in prices. The overall liquid ammonia market situation has not changed much. The price rise of upstream liquid ammonia has brought some positive support to the ammonium nitrate market, and the price of ammonium nitrate market is temporarily stable.

Recently, the demand of downstream civil explosive industry is general, the price trend of liquid ammonia market has a downward trend, the price trend of nitric acid has declined, and the spot supply of ammonium nitrate is sufficient. Ammonium nitrate analysts from the business community believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may decline slightly in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the overall price of toluene showed a “V” trend this month, with a continuous decline in the first half of the month and a slight rebound in the second half. On May 1st, the benchmark price of toluene was 7450 yuan/ton, and on May 31st, it was 7130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 320 yuan/ton or 4.3% compared to the beginning of the month.

In terms of crude oil, in the first half of the month, with the deepening of macro risk aversion and cautious trading atmosphere in the energy market, Gulf News reported on May 5th that Saudi Arabia has lowered crude oil futures prices in the Asian market; The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company of the United Arab Emirates announced that it will reduce crude oil shipments by 5% from May to seek a balance between supply and demand of crude oil; The unexpected increase in crude oil inventories in the United States has deepened market concerns about economic recession, and the oil market has developed in a volatile manner.

In the middle of the week, US crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased. EIA monthly reports predict that US crude oil production will increase by about 5% in 2023, and fuel demand will increase by 1%. It is expected that US crude oil production will increase by 5.1% to 12.53 million barrels per day in 2023, and oil production in major shale oil producing areas in the United States will reach a historic high in June; The United States intends to purchase 3 million barrels of sour crude oil to supplement its strategic oil reserves that are about to run out.

In the second half of the month, the United States initially reached an agreement to raise the debt ceiling, avoiding the risk of default, but there are still expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve; Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that the current goal of Russia and OPEC+is to ensure a balance between supply and demand of crude oil to maintain market stability.

The crude oil price fluctuated and fluctuated in May. On May 31st, the benchmark price of WTI crude oil in the trading company was 72.67 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of -5.35% compared to the beginning of this month (76.78 US dollars per barrel); The benchmark price of Brent crude oil is 77.10 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of -4.02% compared to the beginning of this month (80.33 US dollars per barrel).

Downstream: In terms of TDI, the overall trend of TDI this month is downward. On May 1st, the price was at 19500 yuan/ton, and on May 31st, the price rose to 16200 yuan/ton. During the month, it decreased by 3300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.92%. This month, the domestic TDI market is operating in a weak state, with weak downstream demand and average enthusiasm for buying in the market. There are fewer new orders traded on the market, and the supply side production capacity has increased. The trade market has a bearish mentality, and the trading atmosphere on the market is cold and there is a game between supply and demand.

Downstream, domestic PX prices have shown a downward trend this month. On May 1st, the benchmark price of PX was 9000 yuan/ton. On May 31st, the price dropped to 8300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.78%. In May, PX supply slightly increased, and the domestic PX operating rate was over 70%. However, during the maintenance of some PX devices, the domestic PX price trend declined due to the increase in supply.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline prices have fallen and risen this month. On May 1st, the benchmark price of gasoline was 8648.6 yuan/ton, and on May 31st, it was 8428.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220.4 yuan/ton or 2.55% compared to the beginning of the month. The domestic refined oil market still lacks demand support, the market trading atmosphere is light, and the sales pressure of main units at the end of the month is high, resulting in a downward pressure on domestic gasoline prices.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In terms of crude oil, the OPEC+alliance will hold a meeting in Vienna on June 4th to decide on production policies; As the weather warms up, gasoline demand is improving, but downstream demand for fine chemicals is weak, providing limited price support, with gasoline primarily in demand; The current US economy is better than expected and the risk of debt default has decreased, leading to an increase in short-term market risk appetite; Due to the impact of fundamentals, it is expected that the price of toluene will be relatively weak next month. Pay attention to the trend of crude oil and gasoline, the dynamics of toluene units, and the impact of downstream demand on prices.

According to price monitoring data from Business Society, as of May 30, 2023, the reference price for domestic n-propanol was 7933 yuan/ton. Compared to May 1, 2023 (reference price for n-propanol was 7966 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that since May (5.1-5.30), the overall domestic n-propanol market has shown a weak fluctuation and a slight decline. In early May, the domestic n-propanol market as a whole fluctuated within a certain range with a narrow range. The narrow downward adjustment of the n-propanol market in Shandong region led to a decline in the overall market focus. In late May, the domestic n-propanol market as a whole showed a decline followed by a correction. Some n-propanol suppliers in Shandong region adjusted the price of n-propanol based on their own inventory and shipping rhythm, with a range adjustment of around 300-600 yuan/ton. As of May 30, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong Province was around 7300-7800 yuan/ton. Distributors in different regions still have reservations about prices, and the difficulty in monitoring prices may lead to differences in specific negotiation situations. Each region also has differences, and actual negotiations are the main focus.

Prediction of the Future Market Trend of n-propanol

At present, the trading atmosphere in the domestic n-propanol market is quiet, and the downstream demand for n-propanol is mainly in demand for procurement. Business Society’s n-propanol data analyst believes that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

This week (5.22-5.29), the market for dichloromethane slightly increased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 29th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2410 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.12% from last Monday’s 2360 yuan/ton. Low price consolidation of raw material methanol, weak cost support for dichloromethane; The supply side of methane chloride remains loose; In the second half of this week, some downstream and export areas will be centrally replenished, providing slight support for dichloromethane. The price of dichloromethane has slightly increased.

This week (5.22-5.29), the start of the methane chloride plant slightly decreased, and the overall supply pressure is still on.

This week (5.22-5.29), the price of raw material methanol has stabilized at a low level, and the cost support for dichloromethane is still weak. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 29th, the spot price of methanol was 2191 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.04% from last Monday’s 2190 yuan/ton, and the low point during the cycle was 2135 yuan/ton.

Although the downstream centralized replenishment is expected in the short term, on the one hand, the magnitude is not significant, and on the other hand, the downstream refrigerant R32 is still operating at a low level, providing limited support for the demand for dichloromethane. The pharmaceutical intermediate and diluent solvent industries have experienced slight fluctuations in production, and dichloromethane just needs support. There was no significant increase in the overall demand for dichloromethane.

Future Market Forecast: According to the methane chloride data analyst from Business Society, the downstream demand for dichloromethane has improved in the short term compared to the previous period. However, the supply side of dichloromethane is loose, and due to the weak fundamentals of the industrial chain, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will consolidate in a narrow range in the short term.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the domestic PC market has been weak and declining this week, with spot prices of various brands continuing to decline. As of May 26th, the reference quotation for the PC sample enterprises of Business Society was around 15333.33 yuan/ton, with a decrease of -1.60% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: From the above figure, it can be seen that the recent market for bisphenol A has continued to decline. The raw material phenol finishing, acetone decline amplification, due to insufficient support from the cost side. Downstream product demand is weak, and terminal digestion of contracts and inventory is the main factor, which to some extent exacerbates the market wait-and-see atmosphere. The overall performance of the industrial chain is lackluster, with intermediate traders following the market and offering, and it is expected that the market may continue to decline in the near future.

In terms of supply: The overall operating rate of domestic PC has been adjusted and operated in the range of around 71% this week, and the industry has not yet shaken off its high load position in the past three years. There is ample supply on the market, with factory prices falling below normal levels, and multiple brands experiencing upside down situations, resulting in weak support for spot goods.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream PC companies just need to maintain production and have a heavy wait-and-see mentality. The auction situation has weakened, and transaction prices have generally decreased. At present, the starting position of terminal enterprises is not high, there are not many actual stocking operations, and there is no volume of on-site trading. Traders have a poor mentality, their prices have declined, and the difficulty of arbitrage has increased.

Future Market Forecast

The PC market is weak this week. The upstream bisphenol A market continues to decline, providing poor support for PC costs. The high load of domestic polymerization plants is stagnant, and the follow-up and improvement on the demand side are limited, while the pressure on the supply side is maintained. There is currently no sign of the PC market breaking out of the supply-demand contradiction, and it is expected that the market may continue to operate weakly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong fluctuated and fell in May. At the beginning of the month, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1186.67 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1146.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.37%. The current price has decreased by 11.79% compared to last year.

formaldehyde

In May, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province declined. From the figure above, it can be seen that formaldehyde has mainly declined in shock for more than two months, and the market continued to decline this month. As of May 25, the mainstream market value price in Shandong was 1100-1250 yuan/ton. In May, the raw material methanol experienced a broad decline, and formaldehyde manufacturers started operating normally. However, downstream panel factories had weak demand, resulting in significant pressure on formaldehyde shipments. Inventory levels continued to rise, and the formaldehyde market continued to decline.

Upstream methanol situation: In May, the domestic methanol market declined, with the factory delivery price of methanol in the southern region of Shandong being around 2150 yuan/ton for cash exchange, and the delivery price in Linyi being around 2190 yuan/ton for cash exchange. The local methanol factory in central Shandong quoted a price of 2300 yuan/ton for self delivery from the factory. The negotiated price for methanol in the Dongying area of Shandong is between 2160 and 2170 yuan/ton, which will be delivered to spot exchange. The market atmosphere continues to be weak. After the futures price fell below the integer threshold of 2200 yuan/ton, the market sentiment became less confident. At the same time, the raw coal is still weak, the downstream demand is weak for a long time, the social inventory of the methanol market continues to accumulate, the source of imported goods also continues to pour in, and the spot market price of methanol drops again and again.

The recent decline in the methanol market is mainly due to cautious downstream panel factories receiving goods and a decline in market transactions. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society predict that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will be mainly weak in the near future.

This week (5.15-19), the trend of domestic adipic acid was weak. After experiencing a slight increase in the market after the May Day holiday, due to the lack of positive maintenance in the market, the price remained stable for two consecutive weeks with some decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 19, the decline in adipic acid this week was 0.59%. The focus of market trading has not changed much. At present, the market quotation range for adipic acid is between 9800 to 10000 yuan/ton. Fundamentally, maintain a favorable withdrawal from the raw material end and maintain a weak balance between supply and demand.

Industrial chain

The above figure shows that this week, the entire adipic acid industry chain has declined, with upstream pure benzene and cyclohexanone continuing to retreat, especially with a significant decline in pure benzene. The main downstream product PA66 continues to be weak and stable.

Cost side: Continued empty pattern of raw material costs

This week’s decline in crude oil has created a negative impact on the entire domestic chemical market, and the price of pure benzene has declined. Although domestic supply has decreased and ports continue to destock, the panic selling caused by the sharp drop in oil prices has led to an increase in the circulation of pure benzene in the market, and the price of pure benzene in East China has continued to decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, East China Pure Benzene fell by 2.15% this week. Adipic acid still faces significant cost pressure.

Supply side: Increased supply of enterprise equipment for resumption of work

From the perspective of market supply: In terms of equipment, the supply of adipic acid has slightly increased this week, and the operating rate has remained at 60-70%. The resumption of construction of some equipment in Haili, Taihua, and Tianli has brought about an increase in supply to the market. Although the main manufacturers have raised prices this week, prices remain at last week’s level, but due to weak demand, there may be room for manufacturers to lower prices in the future. The manufacturer’s shipping speed has slowed down. At present, there is a lack of positive guidance on the supply side.

Demand side: Relatively weak demand constrains the trading volume of adipic acid

Adipic acid is relatively weak downstream. The terminal procurement just needs support, and there are relatively few orders. Taking PA66 as an example, the market has been fluctuating at a low point due to a long-term negative trend. This week’s prices continued to be weak last week and remained mainly flat. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the increase and decrease of PA66 this week was 0%. At the weekend, the market price of PA66 in Zhejiang was around 20000 yuan/ton. In addition, the market performance of caprolactam and TPU in other downstream areas is low, and weak demand is an important reason that restricts the radical improvement of adipic acid.

Future prospects

The business community believes that in terms of cost, crude oil has recently been disturbed by macro factors, the risk of US debt default has been suppressed, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and the strengthening of the US dollar have been suppressed. The trend of pure benzene is fluctuating and downward, and it is expected to have a good performance in the later stage. The future cost side is mostly bearish. The supply and demand sides have maintained a relative balance in the near future, and a large number of repaired devices will quell the weak demand. Overall, it is expected that adipic acid will continue to undergo a narrow adjustment in late May.

Price trend

Last week, the domestic PA6 market weakened in a narrow range, and spot prices were generally reduced. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of May 22, the average factory price of PA6 in China was 13800 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.25% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

From the above chart, it can be seen that there was a slight decline last week. The price of raw material pure benzene has decreased, weakening cost support. At present, the supply and demand of caprolactam market is balanced, and the downstream demand is weak. Most of the products are purchased at low prices, and they are mainly cautious. It is expected that caprolactam market price will be weak in the short term, which will be dominated by consolidation operation.

On the supply side:

Recently, the overall load of domestic PA6 production enterprises has remained relatively stable, operating in a narrow range of around 70%. The market supply is stable, the inventory position continues to rise, and the supplier’s support for spot goods is average. The factory price pricing is narrow and loose.

In terms of demand: downstream, the weaving and spinning industries have a moderate load. The actual trading is generally concentrated in low-end spot goods. The overall atmosphere of stock preparation on the site is cautious, with buyers resisting high priced sources, and the overall demand for PA6 chips is average.

Future Market Forecast

Last week, there was a decline in the PA6 market. The load of domestic polymerization plants is stable, and the supply remains sufficient. In terms of demand, it is average, and stocking tends towards low-priced sources. The price of caprolactam fell back, and the narrow range of PA6 cost end support weakened. It is expected that the PA6 market may be dominated by weak consolidation and operation in the short term.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic EVA market has continued to decline, and spot prices have adjusted weakly this week. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of May 19th, the average ex factory price of EVA in China was 13633.33 yuan/ton, an increase of -9.51% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

The domestic EVA market continued to weaken this week. On the supply side, the EVA industry’s operating rate this week has taken on the pattern of high load last month, with an overall weekly operating rate of over 90%. The market supply is abundant, and there is pressure on factory inventory, leading to a reduction in factory prices. Social inventory is also under pressure, and traders tend to give up profits and take orders. The profitability of EVA polymerization plants has significantly declined due to its impact. The buyer is affected by the news of the new production device and is cautious in stocking operations. The auction transaction situation improved slightly during the week, but overall demand continued to be weak, and terminal enterprises lagged behind in following up. Among them, low prices for shoe materials and other aspects of consumption were frequent, and there was little trading on the market. Enterprises have resistance to high priced sources of goods. The current demand side continues to have a bearish impact on the EVA price market.

Overall, the supply side pressure on the EVA market has not decreased this week, and downstream demand is generally weak. Overall, the factory price of enterprises has been lowered, and businesses have followed suit. Petrochemical plants have given up profits and taken orders. The foam demand is poor, and the overall market is relatively empty. It is expected that the domestic EVA market will continue to be weak in the short term.

Plasticizer DOTP prices stop falling and rebound

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 16, the price of DOTP was 10181 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.38% compared to the price of 10760 yuan/ton on May 7; The price of DOTP increased by 1.09% compared to 10071 yuan/ton on May 14th; The price has increased by 3.77% compared to 9811 yuan/ton on May 1st. This week, the price of isooctanol rebounded and rose, while the price of plasticizers stopped falling and rebounded.

Isooctanol prices stop falling and rebound

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol has stopped falling and rebounded this week, while the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and risen. As of May 16th, the price of isooctanol was 9791.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.35% compared to May 12th, when the price of isooctanol was 9566.67 yuan/ton; The price of isooctanol decreased by 3.85% compared to 10183.33 yuan/ton on May 8th, and increased by 7.60% compared to 9100 yuan/ton on May 1st. This week, the price of isooctanol stopped falling and rebounded. The cost of plasticizer products increased, and the upward momentum of plasticizer DOTP increased.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that isooctanol rebounded and rose this week, leading to an increase in the cost of plasticizer product DOTP. Overall, the supply of isooctanol has basically returned to normal, the cost of plasticizer raw materials has increased, and there is still a weak demand for plasticizers. It is expected that plasticizer prices will be weak and stable in the future.