According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the rare earth market price index slightly declined in June, and the domestic light and heavy rare earth market trend was divided. The light rare earth market fell, while the heavy rare earth price slightly increased. On June 29th, the rare earth index was 460 points, a decrease of 13 points from the first day, a decrease of 54.32% from the cycle’s highest point of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and an increase of 69.74% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).
The prices of neodymium oxide, metal neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metal praseodymium neodymium oxide, and metal praseodymium neodymium in China have declined. As of the end of the month, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium was 560000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.44%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 450000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.63% in price; The price of neodymium oxide was 477500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.45%; The price of neodymium metal was 602500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.86%; The price of metal praseodymium was 627500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.18%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 477500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.28%.
In June, the domestic light rare earth market declined, and inquiries for praseodymium neodymium products in the market were relatively scarce. Transactions were mainly in demand, with some enterprises experiencing a decline in price support. In addition, after June, the demand support was insufficient, causing the light rare earth market to fluctuate and decline. At present, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium is still upside down, mainly to ensure the supply of long-term orders. Intermediaries are cautious in replenishing small quantities, and transactions are limited. Recently, both rare earth production and market inventory have decreased, with a tight supply of raw materials and limited stock in the market. Sellers are cautious in their quotations, and the transaction situation is average. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and the overall trend of rare earth product prices has declined.
The domestic market of heavy rare earth dysprosium rose slightly. As of the end of the month, the price of Dysprosium(III) oxide was 2.225 million yuan/ton, up 5.70% from the beginning of the month; The price of dysprosium iron alloy is 2.095 million yuan/ton, an increase of 1.21% compared to the beginning of the month; The price of dysprosium metal was 2.71 million yuan/ton, an increase of 1.12% compared to the beginning of the month; The domestic price of terbium series is mainly fluctuating, with the domestic price of terbium oxide reaching 8.65 million yuan/ton and the price of metallic terbium reaching 10.15 million yuan/ton. The heavy rare earth market has slightly rebounded, with an increase in inquiries in June and a tightening of spot supply. Affected by a slight increase in demand, the domestic heavy rare earth market price has slightly increased. The domestic heavy rare earth market is relatively active in inquiry and quotation, with a slight increase in trading volume. However, downstream actual demand is still weak, and metal factory orders are relatively scarce. In addition, with an increase in rare earth mines from Southeast Asia, the supply of rare earth is sufficient, and the wait-and-see sentiment in the rare earth market is still heavy.
According to statistics, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 713000 and 717000 units respectively in May, with year-on-year growth of 53% and 60.2%, and a market share of 30.1%. From January to May, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 3.05 million and 2.94 million units respectively, with year-on-year growth of 45.1% and 46.8%, and a market share of 27.7%. Recently, the country has accelerated the construction of charging infrastructure to better support the entry of new energy vehicles into rural areas, which is conducive to unleashing the consumption potential of rural areas, increasing the sales of new energy vehicles, and increasing the production and sales of new energy vehicles, which is beneficial for the domestic prices of medium and heavy rare earths.
After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern with large groups as the main body and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has decreased from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China’s rare earth export data in May was 4576 tons; From January to May 2023, a total of 20987.2 tons of rare earth commodities were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%. China’s rare earth commodity exports decreased, which to some extent restricted the domestic rare earth market prices.
Future forecast: In the near future, the supply of rare earth production enterprises is normal, with little change in downstream demand. It is expected that the rare earth market prices will slightly decrease in the short term, and there will be a lack of primary and renewable supply sources in the medium to long term. Dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages. In addition, driven by emerging and traditional demands such as energy-saving motors, industrial machinery, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning, and consumer electronics, the global demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue to grow.