Recent price trends of urea

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic urea market price has slightly decreased this week, with urea prices dropping from 2584.29 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2577.14 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.28%. Weekend prices increased by 9.76% year-on-year. On August 13th, the urea commodity index was 119.87, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 21.31% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 115.59% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Cost support is average, downstream demand weakens, and urea supply is sufficient

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream prices of urea in China have fluctuated this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chains, it can be seen that there have been ups and downs in the urea upstream market this week. The price of liquefied natural gas fluctuated and rose, rising from 3630.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3640.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.28%. The weekend price fell by 47.97% year-on-year; The price of anthracite has stabilized at a low level, with the price of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium block) at 1130 yuan/ton this week; The price of liquid ammonia slightly decreased, dropping from 3383.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3366.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.49%. The weekend price fell by 11.33% year-on-year. Upstream raw material prices fluctuate, and there is insufficient support for urea prices. This week, the downstream melamine price of urea has stabilized at a low level, with a price of 7075.00 yuan/ton.

From a demand perspective: Agricultural demand has weakened, while industrial demand is average. The use of fertilizers in summer has basically ended, with sporadic fertilizer supplementation being the main focus, and agricultural demand has weakened. The operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant is average, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is normal. Board and melamine enterprises are operating at a low level, with a focus on purchasing on demand. From a supply perspective, the daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, indicating sufficient supply.

Small fluctuation and decline in the future market

In mid to late August, the domestic urea market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. Business Society urea analysts believe that the upstream market of urea has ups and downs, and the cost of urea is generally supported. Downstream agricultural demand has basically ended, while industrial demand is average. The daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, with sufficient supply. In the future, urea may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and decline.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of caustic soda has remained stable and fluctuated slightly this week. The average market price in Shandong from the beginning of the week to the weekend was 752 yuan/ton, a 30.37% decrease compared to the same period last year. On August 10th, the chlor alkali index was 986 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 53.67% from the cycle’s highest point of 2128 points (2021-10-24), and an increase of 38.48% from the lowest point of 712 points on January 5th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of domestic caustic soda has stabilized and operated this week. The current average market price in Shandong region is around 700-780 yuan/ton. The mainstream factory quotation for 32% liquid alkali in Hebei region is around 750-800 yuan/ton. The overall price of caustic soda has not changed much this week, and the supply has slightly narrowed. In terms of downstream alumina, the short-term demand for the main downstream is average, but the overall demand is weak, and more purchases are made according to demand. The supply and demand game, the price of caustic soda maintains a consolidation operation market.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, in the 31st week of 2023 (7.31-8.4), there were a total of 4 products that rose, 0 products that fell, and 3 products that rose or fell to 0 on the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities that have increased include: light soda ash (2.23%), PVC (1.10%), and flake soda ash (0.77%); This week’s average increase or decrease was 0.67%.

Analysts from Business Society believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has remained stable with minor fluctuations, and the supply side has narrowed. Downstream alumina still purchases more on demand in the near future. The mentality of the industry is average, and it is difficult to have substantial positive results in the downstream supply and demand game. It is expected that the overall market situation will be consolidated in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of August 7, 2023, the domestic market price of butanone was set at 7933 yuan/ton. Compared with August 1, 2023 (reference price of butanone was 7866 yuan/ton), the price increased by 67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.85%.

From the data monitoring chart of Business Society, it can be seen that since July (7.1-7.25), the overall market situation of domestic butanone has shown a “first decline and then rise” trend. In early July, the overall butanone market continued to decline, with insufficient downstream demand. New orders for butanone were sold lightly, and shipments were slowly affected. Some factories and suppliers started actively shipping and adjusted butanone prices downwards. In the early stage, the cumulative decrease was about 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.82%.

From the data monitoring chart of Business Society, it can be seen that since August (8.1-8.07), the overall market situation of domestic butanone has shown a slight upward trend. At the beginning of August, the overall market for carbon tetrachloride (C4) in the ether end of butanone raw material increased, and the cost of butanone was supported by the raw material end. The overall butanone market rose slightly, with an increase of around 100 yuan/ton. At present, the overall performance of downstream demand for butanone is average, and the boost provided by the demand side for butanone is limited. As of August 7th, the domestic market price of butanone is around 7600-8400 yuan/ton.

Analysis of the aftermarket of butanone

At present, the trading atmosphere of butanone on the market is relatively light, and downstream demand is cautious. New orders on the market are generally traded, and the butanone data analyst at the Business Society believes that in the short term, the overall range of the domestic butanone market is mainly adjusted and operated within a narrow range. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in news on the supply and demand side.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the market price of isopropanol has increased this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of isopropanol in China was 7460 yuan/ton, while the average price over the weekend was 7700 yuan/ton. During the week, the price increased by 3.22%.

The market price of isopropanol has increased this week. At present, the market situation is still acceptable. The upstream acetone market has seen a high price decline, while propylene prices have slightly decreased, resulting in weak cost support. Downstream procurement tends to be cautious, with on-demand orders being the main focus, and many businesses maintaining a wait-and-see attitude. Overall, the market is relatively stagnant. As of now, the majority of quotations for isopropanol in the Shandong region are around 7000-7400 yuan/ton; The majority of prices for isopropanol in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 7600-8000 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw acetone, the upstream acetone market price fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of acetone was 6987.5 yuan/ton, while at the weekend, the average price was 68505 yuan/ton. The price was reduced by 1.97%. This week, downstream demand for acetone was average, and the market atmosphere was relatively weak, resulting in a decline in prices.

In terms of propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market fell first and then rose this week. The average price of the Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 6738.25 yuan/ton, and the average price on Sunday was 6645.75 yuan/ton. The price was reduced by 1.37%. The trading atmosphere in the market this week was relatively light, and downstream procurement enthusiasm was average. The atmosphere improved over the weekend. It is expected that the propylene market will shake in the short term.

3、 Future Market Forecast

An isopropanol analyst from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believes that the price of raw acetone is declining, while the propylene market first falls and then rises. The overall cost support is weak, but manufacturers are interested in raising prices and the market is more wait-and-see. It is expected that the isopropanol market may experience a slight decline in the short term.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market prices fell significantly in July. The market price of sulfuric acid dropped from 192.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 160.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 16.67%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 76.54% year-on-year.

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have decreased slightly this month, and the inventory of manufacturers is relatively low.

Cost side: Sulfur market rises first and then falls

The factory price of sulfur rose first and then fell in July. The price of sulfur first increased from 713.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 876.67 yuan/ton on July 20th, an increase of 22.90%, and then dropped to 846.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 3.42%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 9.93% year-on-year. Overall, the sulfur market has significantly increased, with good cost support, which has a positive impact on the price of sulfuric acid.

On the demand side: The market for hydrofluoric acid has slightly declined

The hydrofluoric acid market slightly declined in July. The price dropped from 9657.14 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9566.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.94%. At the end of the month, prices fell by 10.59% year-on-year. In July, the titanium dioxide market first fell and then rose. The price of titanium dioxide dropped from 16133.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 15516.67 yuan/ton on July 14, a decrease of 3.82%. It then rose to 16000.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 3.11%. In early July, the overall price of titanium dioxide decreased by 0.83%. At the end of the month, prices fell by 15.19% year-on-year. Overall, the downstream market of sulfuric acid has slightly declined, and downstream manufacturers have weak enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid.

Looking at the future market: In mid to early August, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline, with consolidation being the main trend. The downstream market for hydrofluoric acid and titanium dioxide has slightly declined, and downstream enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid has weakened. Upstream sulfur prices have a downward trend at the end of the month, with average cost support. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the sulfuric acid market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, with consolidation being the main focus.

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the market price of Isobutyraldehyde rose sharply in July. The market price of Isobutyraldehyde rose from 7000.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7666.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 9.52%. At the end of the month, prices increased by 5.50% year-on-year. On July 30, the Isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 38.75, unchanged from yesterday, down 63.30% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 (2021-09-16), and up 28.65% from the lowest point of 30.12 on October 7, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

From the supply side, the price of domestic mainstream Isobutyraldehyde manufacturers rose sharply in July, and the inventory of manufacturers was average.

Upstream support is good, while downstream demand is average

From the cost side, the upstream propylene market of Isobutyraldehyde rose sharply in July. The price of propylene increased from 6518.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6738.25 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 3.38%. At the end of the month, prices decreased by 7.93% year-on-year. The rising cost is well supported, which has a positive impact on the price of Isobutyraldehyde.

From the demand side, the downstream Neopentyl glycol market fluctuated and fell in July. The market price of Neopentyl glycol dropped from 9500.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9350.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.58%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 15.51% year-on-year. Downstream market declined slightly, and downstream manufacturers’ purchasing enthusiasm for Isobutyraldehyde weakened.

Small fluctuations and gains in the future market

The domestic Isobutyraldehyde market may rise slightly in the first ten days of August. The upstream propylene market has slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream market of Neopentyl glycol has an upward trend at the end of the month. The downstream manufacturers are generally enthusiastic about purchasing Isobutyraldehyde, and the product trend is upward under the contradiction between supply and demand. Isobutyraldehyde analysts from the business agency believe that the domestic Isobutyraldehyde market may rise slightly due to the impact of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price trend of acetic acid in July first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the month, the average price of acetic acid was 2883.33 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 3100.00 yuan/ton. The overall increase during the month was 7.51%, and the price decreased by 11.74% year-on-year.

During the month, the acetic acid market was initially strong and then weak, with prices continuing to rise in the first half of the month. Affected by the maintenance and production reduction of acetic acid plants, market supply decreased, and manufacturers had no pressure on inventory. The quotation for acetic acid continued to rise; In the latter half of the year, the maintenance equipment resumed, and the supply of goods increased. At the same time, the downstream main equipment was shut down, resulting in low capacity utilization, resulting in insufficient downstream demand. Acetic acid companies were unable to ship smoothly, and the business owners were pessimistic. In order to promote the downward shift of the focus of shipping acetic acid transactions, due to the large increase in the early stage, the overall price at the end of the month increased compared to the beginning of the month.

The raw material methanol market fluctuated and rose, with an average domestic market price of 2281.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an overall increase of 4.66% compared to the price of 2180.00 yuan/ton on July 1st. The price of raw coal fluctuates and rises, with positive cost support; The recovery of excess methanol units on the supply side has reduced production, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization, which has a negative impact; On the demand side, the increase in demand due to negative downstream devices has a positive impact on methanol. In a multi-party game, methanol prices fluctuate and operate.

The downstream acetic anhydride market improved in July, with a price of 5087.50 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 1.75% compared to the price of 5000.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material acetic acid has increased, and the cost support for acetic anhydride is positive. Some acetic anhydride enterprises have shut down or reduced production within the month, resulting in a decrease in market supply and an increase in acetic anhydride prices. In the latter half of the month, on-site acetic anhydride enterprises have resumed operations, but downstream demand has not followed up enough. In order to promote the reduction of shipping prices, the acetic anhydride market has been weakened and lowered.

Analysts from the Business Society believe that the operation of acetic acid enterprises is stable, with sufficient market supply, low demand side capacity utilization, slow shipment of acetic acid manufacturers, weak downstream support, and a lack of effective market benefits. In the event of oversupply, it is expected that the acetic acid market will operate weakly in the future, with specific attention paid to changes in supplier equipment.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of July 27th, the price of PET water bottles has been stable, with an average price of 7240.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.69% compared to the same period last week. The market supply and demand are balanced, and the mainstream price is currently around 7200 yuan/ton.

This week, the domestic PET price remained stable and weak, with a narrow range compared to the same period last week. Currently, the focus of negotiations is stable and the mainstream price is around 7200 yuan/ton. Downstream restocking is on demand, and the negotiation atmosphere is average. Manufacturers mainly offer discounts and take orders, while upstream cost support is average, and stable operation is the main trend.

Rubber and Plastic Commodity Index: On July 26, the rubber and plastic index was 657 points, an increase of 1 point compared to yesterday, a decrease of 38.02% from the highest point of 1060 points (2012-03-14) in the cycle, and an increase of 24.43% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PET analysts from Business Society believe that the PET market is expected to operate in a narrow and weak range in the short term, with prices remaining around 7200 yuan/ton.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of July 26, 2023, the domestic market price of organic silicon DMC was referenced at 13060 yuan/ton. Compared with July 21 (organic silicon DMC reference 13400 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.54%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (7.21-7.26), the domestic organic silicon DMC market as a whole was in a weak decline. At the beginning of the week, Shandong large factory took the lead in reducing the price of organic silicon DMC by 200 yuan/ton. The low end price of organic silicon DMC dropped below the 13000 yuan/ton mark, with a reference to around 12800 yuan/ton. Subsequently, Toulong large factory also lowered the price of organic silicon DMC by around 300 yuan/ton. Due to limited downstream demand, it is approaching the end of the month, Organic silicon DMC factories and suppliers have a strong willingness to ship. In order to compete for new orders, the overall negotiation atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC market has declined. As of July 26th, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price is referenced around 12800-13500 yuan/ton, and the price will be reduced by about 200-400 yuan/ton within the week.

Prediction of the Future Trend of Organic Silicon DMC Market

At present, the trading atmosphere of organic silicon DMC on the market is still good, and downstream inquiries have a mild temperature. New orders are mainly negotiated. The organic silicon DMC data analyst of Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market will mostly be stable with small fluctuations, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

Recent price trends of isooctanol

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province has slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of isooctanol in the mainstream market in Shandong region increased from 9583.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9683.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.04%. Weekend prices increased by 11.73% year-on-year. On July 24th, the isooctanol commodity index was 72.55, an increase of 1.35 points from yesterday, a decrease of 47.24% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.50 points (2021-08-08), and an increase of 106.40% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream support is average, while downstream demand increases

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong have slightly increased this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 6608.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6550.75 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.87%. Weekend prices fell by 10.76% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly declined, and cost support has weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the DOP market price has slightly increased this week. The price of DOP increased from 9891.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10150.83 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 2.62%. Weekend prices increased by 10.67% year-on-year. Downstream DOP prices have slightly increased, and downstream customers are actively increasing their purchases of isooctanol.

Future prospects

In late July, the Shandong isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The upstream propylene market slightly declined, with average cost support. The downstream DOP market has slightly increased, and downstream demand has increased. Business Society Isooctanol analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and increases due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.