1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly decreased this week. On August 28th, the price of pure benzene was at 7850 yuan/ton, and on Friday (September 1st), the price of pure benzene was at 7800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.63% compared to last week and an increase of 3.71% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

The price of Sinopec pure benzene this week is 7850 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions are synchronized)

Downstream aspect

3、 Future Market Forecast

Crude oil rose broadly and is expected to shake and consolidate in East China in the morning.

The OPEC+production reduction atmosphere continues to provide support, with expectations of tight supply increasing and international oil prices continuing to rise. NYMEX crude oil futures contract 10 rose by $2.00 per barrel or 2.45% to $83.63 per barrel; ICE oil futures contract 10 is up $1.00 per barrel, or 1.16%, at $86.86 per barrel. The main contract for China INE crude oil futures, 2310, rose 6.6 yuan to 643.6 yuan/barrel, and rose 7.8 yuan to 651.4 yuan/barrel in overnight trading.

Core logic: Yesterday, the mainstream price in East China was 7700-7740 yuan/ton, and delivery was basically completed. Replenishment demand slowed down, and the market slightly declined. Shandong is priced at 7740-7800 yuan/ton, with the main business listing falling in price and insufficient market buying, resulting in a decrease in transaction volume.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market fluctuated and rose in August, with a significant increase towards the end of the month. At the beginning of August, the market was average at 6713 yuan/ton, with an average price of 7000 yuan/ton as of August 31st, a monthly increase of 4.28% and a decrease of 1.66% compared to the same period last year.

As of August 31st, the mainstream prices of propylene in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ August 31st

Shandong region/ 7050-7100 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 6650-6750 yuan/ton

East China region/ 6700-6750 yuan/ton

In August, the propylene market in Shandong fluctuated and rose, with prices gradually showing a stronger trend. At the beginning of the month, the rebound in crude oil and polypropylene prices led to a slight increase in the propylene market, leading to a narrowing of the price difference between polypropylene and propylene, a weakening of downstream purchasing willingness, and a weakening of the propylene market. Subsequently, the PDH device maintenance of Shandong enterprises resulted in a decrease in on-site supply, boosting market information and driving up propylene prices. Due to the impact of news and demand, the propylene market has experienced a fluctuating upward trend. Towards the end of the month, propylene on-site inventory is low, supply is tight, and with news boosting, prices have shown a broad upward trend.

Cost side: In August, the upstream of propylene showed varying degrees of increase, which effectively boosted the propylene market with enhanced cost support. On the demand side: Except for a few varieties, downstream derivatives of propylene have experienced varying degrees of increase, with some products experiencing an increase of over 20%. The production of downstream products is still good, and demand is steadily following up.

Propylene analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that the current propylene market has stable supply and demand, low inventory, and high enthusiasm for downstream entry. It is expected that the propylene market will tend to be strong in the short term.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province increased significantly in August. The price of isooctanol increased from 9983.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 13040.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 30.62%. The price at the end of the month increased by 45.97% year-on-year.

On August 29th, the isooctanol commodity index was 95.88, an increase of 4.41 points from yesterday, a decrease of 30.27% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.50 points (2021-08-08), and an increase of 172.77% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream market price of isooctanol in Shandong has significantly increased this month, with average inventory levels.

Cost side: slight increase in propylene market

In August, the factory price of propylene fluctuated and increased, rising from 6713.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6938.25 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 3.35%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 2.53% year-on-year. The upstream market has slightly increased, with increased cost support, which has a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

On the demand side: The DOP market has significantly increased

The DOP market price increased significantly in August. The price increased from 10583.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 12133.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 14.65%. At the end of the month, prices increased by 23.49% year-on-year. The downstream market has significantly increased, and downstream customers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol.

Looking at the future market: In mid to early September, the domestic isooctanol market may fluctuate slightly and rise, with consolidation being the main trend. The upstream propylene price has slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream DOP market has significantly increased, and downstream manufacturers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol. Business Society’s isooctanol analysts believe that in the short term, under the influence of various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, the domestic isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and gains.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the reference average price of 55% powdered monoammonium on August 1st was 2633 yuan/ton. On August 29th, the reference average price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 3000 yuan/ton. The market price of monoammonium phosphate increased by 13.92% this month.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the reference average price of 64% diammonium chloride on August 1st was 3687 yuan/ton, and on August 29th, the reference average price of 64% diammonium chloride was 3825 yuan/ton. The market price of diammonium phosphate increased by 3.73% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The price of ammonium phosphate continued to rise this month. The price of raw sulfur continues to rise, and cost support is positive. There are many pending orders for monoammonium, and most manufacturers have suspended their quotations. Downstream operating rates have increased, demand has increased, and the focus of monoammonium transaction has been pushed upwards. The supply of ammonium chloride in the market is tight, and dealers are mainly reluctant to sell. Coupled with good demand, the market situation is strong and rising. The international market demand is following up, and prices continue to rise. As of August 29th, the market price for 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei region is around 3000 yuan/ton, while the market price for 55 powdered ammonium in Henan region is around 3050-3100 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The quotation for 64% diammonium in Shandong region is around 3750-3900 yuan/ton, while the quotation for 57% diammonium in Shandong region is around 3300 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is negotiated.

The market for raw sulfur has seen a significant increase in domestic sulfur prices this month. The main reason is that there is strong demand for phosphate fertilizer, prices continue to rise, downstream construction has increased, and there is a positive attitude towards sulfur procurement. The sulfur market has a positive attitude, with smooth shipments from refineries and low inventory. Some manufacturers are reluctant to sell and have a strong upward trend, coupled with the impact of an upward buying mentality, sulfur prices continue to rise. On August 29th, the price of sulfur was 1076.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 26.22% compared to the beginning of the month.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to ammonium phosphate analysts from Business Society, the high prices of ammonium phosphate raw materials have been operating recently, with strong cost support. The downstream operating rate of monoammonium has increased, and demand continues to follow up. The market for ammonium bicarbonate is tight and prices are rising, with good demand both domestically and internationally. Under the influence of multiple positive factors, it is expected that the price of ammonium phosphate will continue to rise strongly in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the East China region’s 1 # tin ingot market rose first and then fell this week (8.18-8.25). On August 25th, the average market price was 215960 yuan/ton, and on August 18th, the average market price was 213350 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1.22%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have risen continuously for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, the price has dropped by 11.35% per month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has been rising for nine consecutive weeks and declining for four consecutive weeks in late July.

In terms of the futures market, it rose first and then fell this week. Fundamentally, there is currently a lot of news from Myanmar. The domestic market predicts that the real impact on domestic supply may be after September, and there is currently no definite news on whether there will be any other changes in the future. Yinman Mining in China will undergo technological transformation and upgrading within the year, and there may be a certain increase in the future. In terms of imports, the quantity of Indonesian imports has increased, and the tight supply at the mining end may be alleviated to some extent. In terms of demand, the terminal consumption of electronic products has always been tepid, and the semiconductor industry’s recent performance is still weak, lacking actual demand support, resulting in a weak operation of the tin market. Overall, the supply and demand in the tin market are still weak, and the market sentiment is biased towards wait-and-see. It is expected that the future market will continue to maintain a weak and volatile trend without the influence of external news. The latest developments in Myanmar’s mining ban news will continue to be monitored in the future.

On August 18th, the base metal index was 1196 points, an increase of 11 points from yesterday, a decrease of 25.99% from the highest point of 1616 points in the cycle (2022-03-09), and an increase of 86.29% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, there were a total of 17 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month on the commodity price rise and fall list in the 33rd week of 2023 (8.14-8.18), with antimony (2.61%), nickel (1.28%), and lead (1.21%) ranking among the top three commodities. There are three products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with cobalt (-2.30%), tin (-1.84%), and zinc (-1.22%) ranking among the top three products. This week’s average increase or decrease was 0.42%.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the above figure, copper prices have fluctuated and risen this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper quotation is 69358.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.57% from the 68963.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 9.4%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, in the past three months, the price has dropped by 4% and increased by 8%. Recently, copper prices have still slightly increased.

LME copper inventory

Macroscopically, new economic data from Europe and the United States has been released. The PMI values of European and American countries in August were lower than market expectations, reducing market expectations for further interest rate hikes by the European and American central banks and raising expectations for possible interest rate cuts next year. Driven by China’s stimulus policies, risk appetite has increased, while July’s consumption data showed strong performance, providing upward momentum for the non-ferrous metal market.

On the supply side: The spot processing fee TC for imported copper concentrate has fallen, but it is still at a high level, driving smelting enterprises to improve capacity utilization, and refined copper production continued to increase in August. The domestic supply of recycled copper has tightened, the profit from imported recycled copper has narrowed, and the price difference between refined and waste has rebounded. Last week, the domestic electrolytic copper production was 243000 tons, an increase of 4000 tons compared to the previous week. The increase in production during the week was mainly due to the impact of last month’s smelting enterprise maintenance on the gradual recovery of production, with most smelting factories completing maintenance and maintaining normal high production.

On the demand side: Partial orders from the power grid will be delivered in August, boosting the industry’s operating rate; Air conditioning is gradually entering the off-season, and consumer support is weakening; The policy of ensuring the delivery of real estate has boosted the completion data, but the front-end data is still weak and faces the risk of weak follow-up. It is still necessary to pay attention to the implementation of the policy; The demand for electronics is slowly recovering. At present, consumption is still resilient, and downstream procurement is active when copper prices fall, forming price support under low inventory conditions.

In summary, at the macro level, there is a possibility that the US dollar will continue to strengthen in the short term, with significant pressure on the external market. However, in China, it is approaching the peak demand season, and downstream buying is significantly boosted when prices fall. It is expected that copper prices will continue to fluctuate strongly.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China on August 11th was 2800 yuan/ton. On August 18th, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 2866 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of monoammonium phosphate increased by 2.38%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China on August 11th was 3712 yuan/ton. On August 18th, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3750 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of diammonium phosphate increased by 1.01%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium phosphate continued to rise this week. The price of raw sulfur has increased, which is beneficial for cost support. At present, most manufacturers of monoammonium phosphate have suspended their quotations and orders, and the market has a large volume of pending orders. The price of monoammonium phosphate continues to rise. The supply of ammonium phosphate in the market is tight, and the international market continues to improve. Dealers are mainly reluctant to sell, and the price of ammonium phosphate continues to rise. As of August 18th, the market quotation for 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei Province is around 2850-2950 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The quotation for 64% ammonium chloride in Shandong region is around 3750-3900 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiated.

In terms of raw sulfur, the domestic sulfur market has shown a strong upward trend this week. The main reason is that there is strong demand for phosphate fertilizer, prices continue to rise, downstream construction has increased, and there is a positive attitude towards sulfur procurement. The sulfur market has a positive attitude, with smooth shipments from refineries and low inventory. Some manufacturers are reluctant to sell and have a strong upward trend, coupled with the impact of an upward buying mentality, sulfur prices continue to rise.

In terms of raw material phosphorus ore, the domestic market for mid to high-end grade phosphorus ore remained stable and organized this week. At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the phosphate rock field is mild, the downstream demand table is calm, and the overall market is stable and excessive. As of August 18th, the domestic market price of 30 grade phosphate ore is around 750-950 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to ammonium phosphate analysts from Business Society, the market situation has been continuously rising during the peak autumn sales season of phosphate fertilizer. The strength of raw materials, the large volume of manufacturers waiting to be shipped, and the shortage of stock in the market. Under multiple positive factors, it is expected that the short-term price of ammonium phosphate will continue to rise strongly.

Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price rose first and then fell this week, with the average market price dropping from 166.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 158.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 4.82%. Weekend prices fell by 8.84% year-on-year. On August 20th, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 41.58, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 69.85% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 131.26% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5th, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Insufficient upstream support and weakened downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have fluctuated this week, with average inventory from manufacturers.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market has recently experienced a significant decline, with insufficient cost support. The downstream market price of polyaluminum chloride slightly decreased, dropping from 1718.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1712.50 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.36%. Weekend prices fell by 18.26% year-on-year. Overall, there are multiple bearish factors, with the hydrochloric acid market fluctuating and falling.

Future Market Forecast

In late August, the market price of hydrochloric acid may fluctuate and decline in a narrow range. The upstream liquid chlorine market has significantly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market has slightly declined, and downstream purchasing willingness has weakened. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent slight fluctuations in the hydrochloric acid market have been the main trend.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of August 18, 2023, the domestic market price of butanone was referenced at 7750 yuan/ton. Compared with August 14, 2023 (reference price of butanone was 7916 yuan/ton), the price was 166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.11%.

From the data monitoring chart of Business Society, it can be seen that this week (8.14-8.18), the overall market situation of domestic butanone showed a weak and declining trend. During the week, downstream demand for butanone was lackluster, new orders were rare, and there was a strong wait-and-see sentiment on the market. The mentality of the operators was average, with some butanone factories under certain supply pressure and insufficient support from both the supply and demand sides. Therefore, under the influence of weak supply and demand, some butanone factories and suppliers allowed profits to ship, and the overall focus of the butanone market continued to move towards a low level, The market price of butanone will decrease by around 100-300 yuan/ton within the week. As of August 18th, the domestic market price of butanone is referenced around 7300-7900 yuan/ton, with some low prices referenced around 7200 yuan/ton.

Analysis of the aftermarket of butanone

At present, the trading atmosphere in the butanone market is average, and there is a certain wait-and-see sentiment in the market. Downstream new orders are trading cautiously. The butanone data analyst from the Business Society believes that in the short term, the overall narrow range adjustment of the domestic butanone market is the main trend, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the recent price trend in the domestic rare earth market has been mainly volatile, with some prices in the domestic light rare earth market rising slightly. On August 13, the rare earth index was 471 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 53.23% from the cycle’s highest point of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and an increase of 73.80% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

The prices of domestic metal neodymium, neodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium oxide, and praseodymium neodymium alloy have slightly increased, while the prices of metal praseodymium and praseodymium oxide have temporarily stabilized. As of the 14th, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium was 580000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.43% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 480000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.05% this week; The price of neodymium oxide is 490000 yuan/ton, with a price trend increasing by 0.51%; The price of neodymium metal is 610000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.24% this week; The price of metal praseodymium is 627500 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged this week; The price of praseodymium oxide is 492500 yuan/ton, and the price trend is temporarily stable this week.

In the early stage, the trend of the light rare earth market has risen. Due to the impact of high temperatures and rainfall, some rare earth mining enterprises have limited production, and some rare earth manufacturers have voluntarily reduced production, which has led to a slowdown in the growth of spot inventory in the market. Separation plants and metal factories in Sichuan region will have varying degrees of production reduction and shutdown behavior, and the price trend of the light rare earth market will rise due to supply reduction. With the end of inquiry procurement, the activity of inquiries for praseodymium neodymium has significantly decreased in the past two days. In addition, downstream magnetic material enterprises have reduced their new orders. Affected by this news, the price increase in the domestic light rare earth market has slowed down.

According to statistics, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 805000 and 780000 units respectively, with a month on month increase of 2.8% in production and a month on month decrease of 3.2% in sales, with year-on-year growth of 30.6% and 31.6%, respectively. From January to July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 4.591 million and 4.526 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 40% and 41.7%, respectively. The country is accelerating the construction of charging infrastructure to better support the entry of new energy vehicles into rural areas, which is conducive to unleashing the consumption potential of rural areas, increasing the sales of new energy vehicles, and increasing the production and sales of new energy vehicles, which is beneficial for the domestic rare earth market prices.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern with large groups as the main body and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has decreased from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China’s rare earth export volume in July was 5425.6 tons; From January to July, the cumulative total export volume of rare earths in China was 31661.6 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%. The export volume of rare earths in China increased, which to some extent supported the prices of the rare earths market. The price trend of light rare earths market slightly increased.

Future Forecast: With the recovery of rare earth raw material supply in the later stage, the ordering and procurement of magnetic material enterprises will come to an end. It is expected that the rare earth market prices will continue to rise in the short term, and the pressure will increase. It is expected that the rare earth market will remain mainly volatile; In the medium to long term, there is a lack of primary and renewable supply sources, and dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages. In addition, driven by emerging and traditional demands such as energy-saving motors, industrial robots, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning, and consumer electronics, the global demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue to grow.