According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of February 29, 2024, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference was 15360 yuan/ton. Compared with February 1 (organic silicon DMC reference 14980 yuan/ton), the price increased by 380 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.54%.

In February, the domestic organic silicon DMC market as a whole experienced a steady upward trend. In early February, on the eve of the Spring Festival, the downstream stocking of organic silicon DMC basically ended, and the market performance remained stable with a slight strong trend. During the holiday period, the organic silicon DMC market operated steadily, and the basic news on the market was relatively calm.

In late February, with the return of the holiday, the organic silicon DMC market began a broad upward trend. After the holiday, Shandong large factories took the lead in raising the price of organic silicon DMC to 15200 yuan/ton. The increase by large factories has driven the market’s restless desire for an increase, and other factories have also started to follow in the footsteps of large factories, raising the price of organic silicon DMC.

At the end of the month, the phenomenon of large domestic factories closing their stocks has increased, and leading companies closing their stocks continues to inject an upward atmosphere into the market. The overall focus of the organic silicon DMC market continues to approach high levels. As of February 29th, the price of organic silicon DMC in the domestic market is around 15200-15600 yuan/ton.

Analysis of the driving factors supporting the upward trend of the organic silicon DMC market:

In terms of supply: Prior to the holiday, the downstream of organic silicon DMC was generally well stocked, but returned after the holiday. The overall supply inventory in the market is controllable, and some factories have pre orders in the early stage, so the shipping pressure is not high. Coupled with the impact of weather factors in some regions after the holiday, the spot circulation of organic silicon DMC is limited. Therefore, overall, in February, the supply side provided strong support to the organic silicon DMC market.

In terms of demand: Before the Spring Festival, the overall demand for organic silicon DMC market was good, and the supply and demand transmission was relatively smooth. After the holiday, downstream markets gradually resumed work and production, and the demand for raw materials remained mainly based on rigid procurement, gradually releasing demand. Therefore, the demand side also brought some impetus to the upward trend of the organic silicon DMC market in February.

Prediction of the future trend of organic silicon DMC market

At present, the trading atmosphere of organic silicon DMC on the exchange is still good, and the mentality on the exchange is good. The operators have certain expectations for the future market. The organic silicon DMC data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market will mainly operate at high levels, and more attention should be paid to changes in supply and demand news.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of February 29, 2024, the domestic market price of butanone was referenced at 8150 yuan/ton. Compared with February 1, 2024 (reference price of butanone was 7683 yuan/ton), the price increased by 467 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.07%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in February, China’s butanone market experienced a relatively broad upward trend. During the month, the focus of negotiations in the butanone market continued to move towards higher levels. As of February 29th, the domestic butanone market price was referenced at around 8000-8400 yuan/ton, while the higher price was referenced at 8600 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of over 6% in February.

Analysis of Factors Supporting the Rise of Butanone Market

In terms of cost: In February, the overall market situation for carbon tetrachloride after the ether end of butanone raw materials showed an upward trend. The continuous increase in raw material prices provided support for the cost of butanone, and the overall market situation of butanone rose with the “original” trend.

On the eve of the Spring Festival, the trading atmosphere in the butanone field was quiet, and the overall production of butanone was low, with an operating rate of around 66-67%. During the holiday period, the performance of the butanone market was calm, with no significant changes in production and capacity. After the holiday, Shandong Yibutanone factory has a plan to restart the equipment, while many other parking devices have no plans to start up temporarily. Therefore, the overall adjustment of the post holiday butanone market is still not significant, and the pressure on butanone factories to ship is also not high, driving the market to operate steadily.

In terms of demand: Before the Spring Festival, the downstream stocking of butanone market was basically completed, and the market demand performance was average. After the end of the holiday, downstream factories of butanone have gradually returned to the market, and the intention to purchase raw materials of butanone has gradually been released. In addition, some factories have executed export orders after the holiday. Therefore, in February, the demand side as a whole provided some support to the butanone market.

Market analysis of butanone

Overall, the rise in the butanone market this time has been supported by multiple factors. As the market continues to warm up, downstream demand for butanone will also continue to recover. Therefore, the butanone data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mostly operate steadily with a strong bias, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the specific news changes on the supply and demand side.

Aluminum prices fell by 0.4% in February

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, aluminum prices fell by 0.4% in February 2024. As of the 29th, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 18876.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.4% compared to the average price of 18953.33 yuan/ton in the East China market at the beginning of the month (February 1st).

In the long term, the current price is in the “M” type price state since the second half of 2023, and the price level has been in the upper middle level in the past year.

Periodic accumulation of aluminum ingots in February

As of February 29th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the main domestic market was 815000 tons, which is 449000 tons compared to the beginning of the month (February 1st). The accumulated inventory during the month was 366000 tons, of which 167000 tons were accumulated during the Spring Festival holiday. Based on historical inventory data, the current inventory level is at a low level in the same period in history. However, compared to the month on month data, the accumulated inventory of electrolytic aluminum before and after the holiday is at the middle level in history.

Overview of aluminum ingot fundamentals in February

Returning after the holiday, the power outage incident at an aluminum plant in Inner Mongolia may affect production capacity, and actual production changes are limited; In the southwest direction, Yunnan has good precipitation, and the hydroelectric power generation may drive the resumption of a small amount of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in March. Yunnan’s early production reduction has been basically completed, and the risk of subsequent production reduction is relatively small. It is expected that Yunnan’s production will steadily increase slightly before the rainy season, with little variation. In terms of policy, although the latest round of sanctions imposed by the United States on Russia includes aluminum industry manufacturers, it does not directly involve Russian aluminum, and the news is generally disturbed.

Factors influencing the future trend of aluminum prices

On a macro level, there is some hedging of domestic macro factors. The annualized quarter on quarter correction of the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index in the fourth quarter of the United States was 2.1%, exceeding expectations by 2%. While the PCE was revised upwards, the actual GDP in the fourth quarter of the United States unexpectedly decreased to 3.2%, which was lower than expectations. The Federal Reserve’s swap rate shows that the Federal Reserve is likely to only cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2024, and investor expectations for the magnitude of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank continue to weaken.

On the domestic side, the central bank has lowered the benchmark loan interest rate LPR again after eight months. The People’s Bank of China authorizes the National Interbank Funding Center to announce that on February 20, 2024, the loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) is 3.45% for 1-year LPR and 3.95% for 5-year and above LPR. The former remained unchanged compared to the previous period, while the latter decreased by 25 basis points compared to the previous period. Lowering the medium – and long-term LPR benchmark interest rate will help reduce the pressure on residents to purchase properties and repay existing housing loans, which is conducive to further promoting investment and consumption.

2. On the supply and demand side, after the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival), the downstream consumption gradually recovered, the automobile and photovoltaic sectors started to work fairly well, and the construction sector’s operating rate also began to rise at a low level recently. The overall demand has improved.

3. On the cost side, changes in the price of raw alumina. In the short term, with loose expectations for ore supply, especially some alumina production enterprises in Shanxi and Henan regions in China actively promoting mine resumption, short-term cost support is average.

Future Market Forecast

The traditional peak season for consumption is approaching, and downstream demand may improve. The production capacity and operating rate of aluminum profiles, aluminum cables, aluminum plates and strips, aluminum foils, primary aluminum alloys, and recycled aluminum alloys are gradually recovering with the resumption of production and work. The pressure on aluminum ingot inventory accumulation may weaken in the future, and spot transactions are expected to improve from the current light. It is expected that aluminum prices will experience strong fluctuations in March.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference average price of 55% powdered ammonium on February 1st was 3133 yuan/ton. On February 28th, the reference average price of 55% powdered ammonium was 3120 yuan/ton. This month, the market price of ammonium phosphate decreased by 0.43%.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the reference average price of 64% diammonium on February 1st was 3966 yuan/ton, and on February 28th, the reference average price of 64% diammonium was 3963 yuan/ton. This month, the market price of diammonium phosphate decreased by 0.08%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium phosphate has fallen this month. Before the Spring Festival, the trading volume in the ammonium phosphate market was relatively weak, with fewer new transactions. The price of monoammonium phosphate has decreased, and the market for diammonium phosphate has remained stable. After the holiday, the prices of ammonium phosphate manufacturers remained stable, and the market was mostly wait-and-see. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprises hold a cautious attitude and prioritize on-demand procurement. At the end of the month, the trading atmosphere in the market improved, with a slight increase in the price of monoammonium phosphate and a narrow consolidation operation of diammonium phosphate. As of February 28th, the factory price of 55 powder ammonium in Hubei region is around 3050-3100 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 55 powder ammonium in Henan region is around 3100-3150 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The market price of 64% diammonium in Shandong region is around 3950-4040 yuan/ton, and the market price of 57% diammonium is around 3560-3630 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is negotiable.

Market for raw material phosphate rock. This month, the domestic phosphate ore market has seen a narrow consolidation. At present, the trading atmosphere in the phosphate ore field is relatively weak, and some mining enterprises have not started construction yet. Market demand is also gradually recovering. As of February 28th, the reference price for domestic phosphate ore market is around 1052 yuan/ton.

Market for raw sulfur. In February, sulfur prices in East China fluctuated and rose. In mid to early February, the trading atmosphere in the sulfur market was positive, and refinery shipments were smooth. In late February, downstream and traders saw an increase in wait-and-see sentiment, with some refineries actively discharging inventory and sulfur prices consolidating and decreasing.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Business Society, the demand for ammonium phosphate in the market has increased recently, and downstream demand has begun to follow up, resulting in an improved trading atmosphere. It is expected that the short-term market for ammonium phosphate will remain stable with an upward trend.

The nitrile rubber market slightly increased in February. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of February 26th, the price was 15162 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.68% from 14625 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In February, the price of butadiene, a raw material for nitrile rubber, increased significantly, while the price of acrylonitrile narrowed, leading to an increase in the cost center of nitrile rubber; Downstream production of nitrile rubber started at a low level before and after the Spring Festival, resulting in weak demand for nitrile and weak support. The nitrile rubber plant is operating smoothly, and the supply side of the nitrile market is loose. After the holiday, some nitrile enterprises have raised their factory prices, and market quotations have slightly adjusted. However, market transactions remain mainly flat.

In February, the domestic nitrile rubber plant started construction with overall stability.

In February, the price of raw materials such as butadiene increased significantly, while the price of acrylonitrile narrowed. As a result, the cost center of nitrile rubber shifted upwards. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of February 26th, the price of butadiene was 10367 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.27% from 9756 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of February 26th, the price of acrylonitrile was 9300 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.13% from 9287 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Before and after the Spring Festival, the downstream production of nitrile rubber hoses in China remained at a low level of around 20%, while the production of rubber insulation foam was around 20%. The demand side dragged down the nitrile rubber market.

Market forecast: Business Society nitrile analysts believe that the current low demand for downstream production of nitrile rubber is weak, but it is strongly supported by the rising cost of butadiene. It is expected that in the later stage, as downstream production increases, the nitrile rubber market may continue to rise slightly.

Recently (1.29-2.2), the price of isooctyl acrylate has risen. According to data from Business Society, as of February 2nd, the average price of isooctyl acrylate in East China was 13425 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.37% from last week. Prices in various regions are as follows:

The reference price for the East China market is 14500 yuan/ton; The reference price for the North China market is 14600 yuan/ton, while the reference price for the South China market is 14700 yuan/ton;

In terms of cost requirements

The market price of raw material acrylic acid is stagnant, while the market price of octanol is temporarily stable, and the cost is still facing market support. From the perspective of demand, it is difficult to effectively release downstream demand, with sporadic small orders for essential needs being the main focus, and the overall trading atmosphere is bleak.

On the supply side

The operating load of the isooctyl acrylate factory remains low, with a decrease in market supply and insufficient spot supply. It is expected that the market supply will remain low in the future, providing some positive support for the market.

Overall

The cost side prices of acrylic acid and octanol in the acrylic acid and octanol markets remain stable, with continued support on the cost side and no significant improvement in demand. This week, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, factory shipping enthusiasm is average, and terminals are gradually entering the holiday. Purchasing expectations are weakened, and it is expected that the market for acrylic acid and octanol will maintain a stable trend. Pay attention to changes in enterprise equipment load and raw material market.

The market for epichlorohydrin remained stable this week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 4th, the average price quoted by epoxy chloropropane enterprises was 8150.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from Monday (January 29th).

Price influencing factors:

Cost side: According to the analysis system of the commodity market in Shengyishe, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market has been operating weakly and steadily this week, with average support for the propylene method cost side.

Supply and demand side: In recent times, the industry’s capacity utilization rate has been low, and there is no pressure on inventory at the supply side. Downstream stocks are prepared according to demand before holidays, and spot prices are tight, supporting the mentality of business owners. After the phased replenishment of downstream goods, the enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement has decreased. In addition, the impact of logistics transportation has led to a weak and stable operation of the epichlorohydrin market.

Analysts from Business Society believe that as downstream pre holiday stocking approaches its end, the market atmosphere is calm and wait-and-see. It is expected that the market for epichlorohydrin may stabilize and operate in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic market price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride remained stable this week. As of the weekend, the quoted price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 7625 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.66% from the beginning of the week price of 7575 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.29%.

Supply side: The device operates stably and the supply of goods is normal

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride units is stable, but some units are still in a shutdown state. Currently, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride in China is around 60%. Recently, the price of industrial naphthalene has remained stable, and the supply of naphthalene based phthalic anhydride has remained stable. This has mainly affected the stability of ortho phthalic anhydride prices.

Cost side: The price of ortho benzene is temporarily stable, and cost support still exists

This week, the domestic price trend of ortho benzene has remained stable. As of the weekend, the price of ortho benzene was 8000 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the initial price of 8000 yuan/ton. The supply of ortho benzene is normal, and the operation of on-site equipment is stable. The crude oil price range fluctuated this week, and the price of mixed xylene is stable. As a result, the domestic price trend of ortho benzene is temporarily stable. The high price of ortho benzene provides certain cost support to the phthalic anhydride market, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market is stable.

Demand side: DOP market focuses on on-demand procurement

The downstream DOP market price has slightly increased, with a price of 11780 yuan/ton as of the weekend, an increase of 0.77% compared to the beginning of the week price of 11690 yuan/ton. Domestic DOP enterprises are operating steadily, and domestic DOP supply is normal. However, plasticizer enterprises are still operating at a loss, plasticizer manufacturers are gradually taking a break, and downstream demand is not improving. The mainstream DOP price is 11700-11800 yuan/ton, and downstream demand for plasticizers is weak. For general purchases of phthalic anhydride, the market price of phthalic anhydride is stable this week.

Looking at the future market, the recent trend of crude oil prices has been volatile, while the price of ortho xylene has remained stable. The demand for downstream plasticizers is not good, and coupled with the impact of holiday manufacturers, the market for naphthalene phthalic anhydride has not changed much. It is expected that the market price of ortho phthalic anhydride will remain stable in the future.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong fluctuated and fell in January. The price of isooctanol decreased from 12950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 12350 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 4.63%, and the price at the end of the month increased by 15.78% year-on-year.

On January 31, the isooctanol commodity index was 90.81, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 33.96% from the highest point in the cycle of 137.50 points (2021-08-08), and an increase of 158.35% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream ex factory prices of Shandong isooctanol have dropped significantly this month, with average inventory levels.

Cost side: Propylene market falls first and then rises

In January, the domestic propylene market stopped falling and rose. At the beginning of the month, propylene inventories were high, and in order to stimulate sales, prices were lowered and inventory was released. Effectively stimulating downstream procurement efforts, propylene takes advantage of the situation to drive up prices. In the middle of the month, some propylene units experienced a decrease in production due to inverted profits, resulting in a tightening of the supply side and a stable demand side. As a result, propylene continued to rise. Subsequently, it rose to a high level, leading to a narrowing of the price difference with downstream polypropylene and suppressing downstream demand, resulting in a slight correction at the end of the month. The upstream market fluctuated widely and rose, with average cost support, which had a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

Demand side: DOP market slightly declines

In January, the DOP market price slightly decreased, and market transactions were light. The price of DOP decreased from 12091.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 11770 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 2.66%, and the price at the end of the month increased by 9.90% year-on-year. The downstream market has slightly declined, and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream customers for isooctanol has weakened.

Looking at the future market: In mid to early February, the Shandong isooctanol market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline, with consolidation being the main trend. Upstream propylene prices have shown a downward trend at the end of the month, with insufficient cost support. The downstream DOP market has recently experienced a slight decline, and downstream manufacturers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol. Analysts from Shengyishe Isooctanol believe that in the short term, the Shandong Isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand, as well as raw materials.

According to data monitored by Business Society, the price of carbon black fell first and then rose this month, and showed an upward trend in the last week. As of now, the domestic N220 carbon black market price is at 9400 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw materials, the price of coal tar in the market has fluctuated this month. As of the 30th, the price of coal tar was 4100 yuan/ton, a decrease of nearly 150 yuan/ton from January 1st, and the decline has narrowed compared to mid month. The price of coal tar in the market has risen back to over 4000 yuan, providing strong support for the cost of carbon black. In the first half of the month, the downstream deep processing and carbon black market had a relatively negative reception sentiment in the early stage, and there was significant pressure on on-site inventory. We spared no effort to suppress the price of coal tar in the market, resulting in a significant decline in coal tar prices. In the second half of the month, the market price of coal tar continued to rise. Currently, the profitability of deep processing enterprises is relatively good, and downstream enterprises have a high enthusiasm for entering the market for inquiries. There are more favorable factors in the market, and the price of coal tar market has significantly increased. The current market situation for high-temperature coal tar is improving, and it is expected to operate stronger in the future, which still provides support for the cost of carbon black.

Starting situation: Based on the previous period, the operating rate of most carbon black enterprises has not changed much, and some enterprises have delivered orders at the end of the year, showing a narrow fluctuation overall.

In terms of terminals: The overall shipment of downstream tire industry is average, still in a seasonal off-season, with a relatively cold trading atmosphere. There is a serious accumulation of inventory on site, and some downstream tire companies have made early holiday arrangements, which limits their production. The market demand is becoming increasingly cold, and the demand for raw material carbon black is flat. The sales pressure in the current tire market is not decreasing, and some companies have launched large-scale promotional policies, mainly focusing on digesting inventory.

Import and export situation: According to customs data, China imported 24000 tons of carbon black in December 2023, an increase of 16.37% year-on-year and 6.47% month on month; From January to December 2023, China imported a total of 274000 tons of carbon black, an increase of 163.55% compared to the same period last year, with imports increasing by approximately 170000 tons. According to customs data, China’s carbon black exports in December 2023 were approximately 75300 tons, an increase of 43.03% year-on-year and 20.06% month on month. From January to December 2023, China’s cumulative exports of carbon black reached 727000 tons, a decrease of 9.98% compared to the same period last year, and the export volume decreased by approximately 80600 tons.

In the future, the high-temperature coal tar market has improved, providing stronger support for the cost of carbon black; The downstream tire industry is still in a seasonal off-season, and the overall trading atmosphere is relatively cold. Early holiday arrangements have led to slightly flat demand for raw material carbon black, and it is expected that the carbon black market will operate steadily, moderately, and strongly in the short term