According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8202 yuan/ton on March 18, and the average price on March 22 was 8238 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.44% during the period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 9257 yuan/ton on March 18th, and the average price on March 22nd was 9277 yuan/ton, with a 0.22% increase in quotation during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8450 yuan/ton on March 18th, and the average price on March 22nd was 8450 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation remained stable.

The price of polyethylene has slightly increased this week. International oil prices rose first and then fell, and the cost side was significantly boosted at the beginning of the week; Some polyethylene companies have maintenance plans, reducing supply side pressure. Downstream plastic enterprises are gradually increasing their production and demand is increasing. Among them, plastic film is in the peak season of demand, and the accumulation of orders is increasing, with positive expectations for demand.

On March 22nd, the polyethylene l2405 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange opened at 8321 yuan and closed at 8238 yuan, a decrease of 83 yuan, with a maximum of 8339 yuan and a minimum of 8218 yuan, a decrease of 1.00%. This week, the overall polyethylene futures market is relatively strong, and the market is turning weaker towards the weekend.

The maintenance of polyethylene equipment may continue to increase, and the supply side is expected to decrease; The demand for plastic film is in its peak season, and it began to weaken in late April. Currently, downstream orders are still in stock; The economic situation is improving, boosting market sentiment, and it is expected that polyethylene will have a narrow and strong trend.

Recently, multiple production lines in the domestic acrylic acid and ester market have restarted, and their supply has recovered synchronously. However, the demand recovery is less than expected, coupled with a high decline in raw materials, the acrylic acid and ester market has remained stable and downward. Among them, the prices of butyl acrylate and ethyl acrylate have fallen significantly, mainly due to the decline in upstream raw material prices, resulting in lower costs for manufacturers of butyl acrylate and ethyl acrylate, which has a certain impact on market prices. As of March 19th, the reference price for butyl acrylate was 9580.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% compared to the beginning of this month (9660.00 yuan/ton).

The reference price of ethyl acrylate is 9387.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.26% compared to the beginning of this month (9605.00 yuan/ton).

The reference price of isooctyl acrylate is 13375.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37% compared to the beginning of this month (13425.00 yuan/ton).

From the perspective of other products in the industry chain, the fluctuation range of acrylic acid prices is limited, mainly because, on the one hand, the price of raw material propylene has rebounded, with an average propylene market price of 6936 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.74% compared to the beginning of this month (6885.75 yuan/ton).; The average market price of ethanol is 6200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.39% compared to the beginning of this month (6287.50 yuan/ton).; The average market price of n-butanol is 7800.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.41% compared to the beginning of this month (8516.67 yuan/ton). The monthly average price of octanol in the market is 11500.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.54% compared to the beginning of this month (12437.50 yuan/ton). The majority of alcohol market prices have fallen this month, providing moderate support for the acrylic ester market.

The downstream water reducing agent market for acrylic acid is maintaining stable operation, with some monomer production enterprises offering narrow fluctuations in prices. Downstream demand side is not highly sensitive to price, and cautious observation is mainly focused on receiving first-time demand. Early inventory digestion is slow, and it is expected that the monomer market will continue to maintain stable operation in the short term.

The downstream SAP industry of acrylic acid has experienced a phenomenon of oversupply but insufficient demand. This is because although SAP in China has a large production and exports, the product supply is mainly low-end products, and most high-end products need to be imported from countries such as Japan, which has dragged down the market. The SAP industry supply has a structural imbalance in supply characteristics. Currently, the price of acrylic acid in the northern market is relatively stable, and some major manufacturers in the East and South China markets have slightly increased their prices, but market transactions are still slow to follow up.

Overall, the current acrylic acid and ester market is mainly affected by raw materials and downstream demand. Business Society analysts predict that the acrylic acid and ester market will continue to be dominated by supply and demand in the short term, with limited price fluctuation space.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of refined petroleum coke in Shandong market increased first and then decreased this week. As of March 18th, the price of refined petroleum coke in Shandong market was 1700.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.73% from 1712.50 yuan/ton on March 11th.

Cost side: The international crude oil market has fluctuated and risen this week, and the cycle has begun. The Federal Reserve has issued hawkish signals, delaying interest rate cuts and suppressing market confidence; US crude oil inventories have risen for the sixth consecutive week, rising by 1.4 million barrels to 448.5 million barrels. Analysts expect an increase of 2.1 million barrels, putting pressure on crude oil prices. Supported by the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East in the later stage; In addition, the expected reduction in production by oil producing countries is also a major factor supporting oil prices, leading to an increase in international oil prices.

Supply side: This week, the shutdown, maintenance, and production reduction of coking units in refineries have gradually increased, resulting in a relative decrease in supply, which is beneficial to the petroleum coke market; The shipment of imported sponge coke is stable, and traders mainly execute orders.

On the demand side: As of March 14th, there were 325 silicon metal furnaces operating in China, with an overall start-up rate of 43.33%, an increase of 2 furnaces compared to last week. In March, silicon plants resumed production one after another, and the overall operating rate continued to gradually increase. However, some areas have undergone shutdown and maintenance operations, resulting in stable growth in the overall supply situation. At present, the demand for purchasing petroleum coke from metallic silicon is still acceptable, supporting the petroleum coke market.

This week, the overall price of sulfur calcined coke has increased. Recently, some negative electrode factories have started to purchase calcined coke one after another, and the shipment of calcined coke has improved. Currently, calcined coke enterprises are operating steadily, and the market supply is relatively sufficient.

This week, aluminum prices have risen, and the traditional peak consumption season is approaching. Downstream demand may improve. The production capacity of aluminum profiles, aluminum cables, aluminum plates and strips, aluminum foil, primary aluminum alloys, and recycled aluminum alloys is gradually recovering with the resumption of production and work. The future spot trading is expected to improve from the current light trend. Downstream aluminum carbon enterprises still have a demand for petroleum coke and mainly purchase according to demand.

Market forecast: Currently, the coking equipment in refineries is undergoing maintenance, resulting in a decrease in the supply of petroleum coke for local refining, which is beneficial to the petroleum coke market; But currently, downstream demand is limited, and the market maintains a focus on essential procurement; In addition, the continuous arrival of imported petroleum coke at the port may increase the storage of petroleum coke in the port. Overall, it is expected that the price of refined petroleum coke in the near future will remain stable and mainly consolidate.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from March 8th to 15th, the domestic ethanol price fell from 6312 yuan/ton to 6275 yuan/ton, with a weekly price drop of 0.59%, a month on month decrease of 2.33%, and a year-on-year decrease of 12.33%. The domestic ethanol market is relatively weak, with production enterprises mainly focusing on regular orders. Enterprises have started to continuously reduce their prices to stimulate shipments.

On the cost side, the overall price of corn remains stable, with narrow fluctuations in some areas. The surplus grain at the grassroots level in the domestic main production areas is lower than expected, and the market’s bullish attitude has increased. The enthusiasm of traders to enter the market for purchases has also increased, and the grain rights have gradually shifted from grassroots to trade and downstream enterprises. The pressure on grain sales has gradually eased, and it is unlikely that corn prices will hit new lows. The cost of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, there are significant differences in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions; In the short term, the domestic ethanol supply is expected to be positive and the supply side continues to expand. It is expected that the Anhui COFCO plant will produce in mid March; Carbon Xin Technology plans to produce and ship; Short term shipments from Zhaodong COFCO; Incremental production of the Sunan plant. The supply side of ethanol is affected by bearish factors.

On the demand side, downstream chemical industry just needs to purchase, methyl ethyl ester plant is about to recover, and sugar liquor will wait for orders for Baijiu. The short-term demand for ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

In the future market forecast, the favorable raw materials will drive the production of equipment to a high level, and downstream demand will be the main demand. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market will be mainly focused on consolidation and observation.

Since March, the epoxy resin market has experienced a slight decline and gradually bottomed out, but the bearish sentiment has led to a sustained downturn in the epoxy resin market. According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the liquid epoxy resin market in East China was quoted at 13333 yuan/ton on March 1, the liquid epoxy resin market in East China was delivered at 13000-13200 yuan/ton of purified water on March 14, and the solid epoxy resin market in Mount Huangshan was delivered at 12800-13200 yuan/ton of spot exchange on March 14.

Both bisphenol A and epichlorohydrin are operating at a disadvantage, with insufficient cost support. The domestic bisphenol A market has been experiencing a broad decline since late February, and the overall weakness in March has bottomed out. The current market offer is between 9250-9400 yuan/ton, mainly due to the sluggish upstream raw material phenol ketone, poor terminal demand, and a bearish atmosphere on the market. Traders lack confidence in the future market.

The focus of the epichlorohydrin market continues to decline, with market prices at 8075 yuan/ton as of March 14. As of 2024, the epichlorohydrin market has remained stable with little fluctuation. In the context of weak supply and demand, it is expected that epichlorohydrin will maintain a low level adjustment in the short term.

Business Society predicts a weak adjustment in the epoxy resin market, with the East China liquid resin market at 12800-13200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the trend of new production capacity and changes in raw materials.

From January to February 2024, the domestic calcium carbide market continued its weak trend before the year, with overall poor terminal demand. Production was mainly maintained for the purchase of raw materials, and the price of calcium carbide had bottomed out. Enterprise losses increased, and in order to reduce inventory pressure, factory shutdowns or load reductions increased.

The cumulative production from January to February increased by 1.7% compared to the same period last year, and the operating rate remained at around 70-80%. The main reason for the increase in production was the gradual production of new facilities in 2023, which increased their production capacity base.

In terms of market prices, there was a significant decline in the market in January, and it remained stable from February to March. Taking the Wuhai region as an example, the average price in February reached 2714.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.2% compared to the same period last year and a decrease of 6.8% month on month.

The sustained downturn in the calcium carbide market is mainly affected by downstream product demand. Currently, the price of calcium carbide is operating at a low level, and enterprises are reducing their burden and demand is slowly recovering. The inventory pressure on factories is decreasing, and some enterprises are increasing their operating rates. The supply pressure on calcium carbide is still significant, and the downstream operating situation is not optimistic. In the short term, calcium carbide still maintains a range adjustment operation.

Recently (3.1-3.11), the market for nitrile rubber has slightly increased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 11th, the price of nitrile rubber was 15400 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.15% from 15225 yuan/ton on the 1st. The prices of raw materials such as butadiene and acrylonitrile have risen, and the cost of nitrile rubber continues to support it; After the holiday, downstream rework occurred, and the production of the rubber hose industry gradually increased to around 60%. The demand for nitrile rubber is still supported. The inventory pressure of nitrile rubber enterprises is average, and the market price of nitrile rubber has slightly increased.

Recently (3.1-3.11), the prices of raw materials such as butadiene and bin washing have increased, and the cost of nitrile rubber continues to support. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 11th, the price of butadiene was 11532 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.94% from 11095 yuan/ton on the first day; As of March 11th, the price of acrylonitrile was 9637 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.31% from 19512 yuan/ton on the 1st.

Recently (3.1-3.11), the domestic nitrile rubber plant has been operating steadily overall.

After the holiday, the production of downstream industries such as nitrile rubber hoses and insulation foam in China has gradually increased to around 60%. The demand for nitrile rubber has some support in the market, but downstream inquiries for high-level goods are cautious, and market transactions are flat.

Market forecast: Business Society nitrile analyst believes that currently, nitrile rubber is supported by the rising cost of butadiene prices, and on the other hand, although downstream production is gradually increasing, it is still at a low level overall. This will provide some support for nitrile rubber in the short term, and it is expected to fluctuate with the nitrile rubber market in the later period.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market has remained stable this week. As of the weekend, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 4060 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 4060 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, a year-on-year decrease of 7.31%.

This week, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market has remained stable, with stable operation of domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers. Recently, the supply of goods on site has been normal, and the downstream procurement situation is still good. The price of ammonium nitrate market is mainly stable. Recently, downstream demand for nitro compound fertilizer has been average, and the purchasing atmosphere in the domestic downstream civil explosive industry has cooled down. Domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers are operating normally, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate has been stable recently. As of now, the mainstream negotiation prices in Shaanxi region are 5400-5600 yuan/ton, Shandong region is 3800-4000 yuan/ton, and Hebei region is 3900-4000 yuan/ton.

This week, the price of concentrated nitric acid in China has slightly declined. As of the weekend, the average price of nitric acid in China was 1840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.65% compared to the price of 1890 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Mainstream enterprises in East China offer a price range of 1800-1900 yuan/ton, while those in the North and Central China offer a price range of 1800-2000 yuan/ton. At present, the supply side of the concentrated nitric acid market is sufficient, and the cost trend has slightly increased. The market mainly relies on orders, and the transaction situation is not good. Industry insiders are mostly wait-and-see, and the on-site price of nitric acid has slightly decreased. The price trend of ammonium nitrate in the market is stable.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia has increased this week. As of the weekend, the price of liquid ammonia was 3200 yuan/ton, which is 7.50% higher than the price of 2976.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. The amount of ammonia released in the main production areas in the north has decreased, and some units in Shandong have started operating steadily. The market has shown tight supply, and prices of large factories in Shandong and surrounding Hebei have generally risen. In addition, downstream procurement enthusiasm has increased, supply and demand contradictions have eased, and manufacturers have raised factory prices. Currently, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 3200-3300 yuan/ton, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has not changed much due to cost support.

Recently, the downstream civil explosive industry procurement has come to an end, and the demand for nitro compound fertilizer is in the off-season, with a downward trend in nitric acid prices. However, the upstream liquid ammonia price has risen, and the combined influence of long and short factors has led to fluctuations in the market price of ammonium nitrate, according to analysts from Business Society.

In February, the domestic polysilicon market performed steadily, with little change in prices from major manufacturers. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the monthly rise and fall of single crystal dense materials is 0. The main reason is that it coincides with the Chinese Lunar New Year, and the market supply and demand performance is stable. According to data from Business Society. As of the end of the month, the mainstream range for single crystal dense materials with a model of first-class solar energy is maintained at 55-6000 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, silicon material manufacturers maintain a reasonable level of operation, while large factories maintain normal operation during the solar term. There have been no significant changes in the overall supply situation, as downstream silicon wafers have also maintained a normal operating state during the solar term, silicon material shipments have remained at a normal level, and silicon material inventory in large factories is still at a medium to low level. From the signing situation of large silicon material factories, the post holiday signing situation is flat, with only a few manufacturers having large-scale transactions. This is also the main reason why silicon material manufacturers have not experienced a rebound in prices. However, as downstream silicon wafer production increases, the bargaining power of silicon material manufacturers will gradually increase in March.

From the demand side, the demand for silicon materials in the February market was relatively rigid, with slightly average pre holiday sales, but post holiday production at the crystal pulling end remained at a medium high level. The operating rate of silicon wafers continues to rise, and the inventory level is also rising. The main reason is that downstream battery cell procurement has decreased, and battery cell manufacturers generally stop work and have long holidays. Before the holiday, only part of the production line is retained for operation and production, making it difficult to digest more silicon wafer inventory. Silicon wafer factories face significant shipping pressure. As of the end of the month, the mainstream transaction price of P-type M10 silicon wafers has remained stable at 2.05 yuan/piece; The mainstream transaction price of P-type G12 is 3.00 yuan/piece; The mainstream transaction price for N-type M10 silicon wafers is 2.00 yuan/piece; The mainstream transaction price for N-type G12 is 3.10 yuan/piece.

Market forecast: The supply and demand pattern of the silicon material market may improve in the near future. On the one hand, the supply of silicon material manufacturers remains abundant and unchanged. On the other hand, downstream silicon wafers will consume silicon material inventory more quickly due to high opening prices. Coupled with the expected increase in the operating rate of terminal battery cells in March, the rebound in terminal demand will stimulate upstream and midstream silicon wafers. Therefore, it is expected that the quotation for silicon materials in March may rebound.

Recent trends in urea prices

Agricultural fertilizer preparation has been gradually launched, and urea prices in Shandong have slightly increased this week. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of urea in Shandong increased from 2508.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2516.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.33%, and the weekend price decreased by 10.47% year-on-year.

From the supply side perspective, some gas companies have resumed production and started operating higher. The data shows that the operating rate of domestic coal urea enterprises this week is about 86.1%, while that of gas urea enterprises is about 85.8%. The daily urea production in China is about 190000 tons. The mainstream urea manufacturers in Shandong saw a slight increase in factory prices during the week.

From the upstream market, it can be seen that the urea upstream market has risen significantly this week: the rainy and snowy weather has ended, leading to a significant increase in production by gas companies, an increase in terminal demand, and a good trading atmosphere. The price of liquefied natural gas surged 7.24%, and the weekend price fell 41.35% year-on-year. The price of smokeless coal has slightly increased, with the price of Yangquan smokeless coal (washing medium block) increasing by 33 yuan/ton to 993 yuan/ton over the weekend. Overall, the significant increase in upstream raw material prices has increased support for urea prices.

From the perspective of downstream demand: winter wheat fertilizer preparation is gradually being launched, agricultural demand is gradually increasing, and industrial demand is adapting to the market. Composite fertilizer companies are experiencing an increase in production, while board and melamine companies are operating at a low level, with a focus on essential procurement. This week, the downstream price of melamine in urea has stabilized at a high level, with a price of 7475 yuan/ton. From the perspective of exports: Although there are still bids overseas, the impact of urea export policies on the domestic market is not significant.

Looking at the future: In early March, the urea market in Shandong may experience a slight fluctuation and rise. Business Society urea analysts believe that the upstream market for urea has significantly increased, and the cost support for urea has increased. Downstream industrial demand is the main focus, while agricultural demand is gradually starting. In the future, urea may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and mainly rise.