1、 Price trend

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, the average PS quotation at the beginning of this week was 10066 yuan/ton, and the average PS price over the weekend was 10100 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.33% and a year-on-year increase of 6.31%.

2、 Market analysis

Due to strong cost support, there is great pressure to ship at high prices, leading to a weakening of styrene futures. Coupled with the wait-and-see atmosphere in the theater, businesses operate according to market trends, resulting in tight market supply. The mainstream price of GPPS (polyphenylene sulfide) in the East China market is between 10000-11400 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of HIPS (polystyrene) is between 10600-11600 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The merchant’s quotation is firm, coupled with tight market supply, and it is expected that the short-term PS price may be mainly volatile and strong.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 3096 yuan/ton on April 1st, and 3016 yuan/ton on April 8th. This week, the market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate dropped by 2.58%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3976 yuan/ton on April 1st, and 3940 yuan/ton on April 8th. This week, the market price of diammonium phosphate decreased by 1.17%.

2、 Market analysis

The market trend of ammonium phosphate has declined this week. The raw material market is strong, and there is still support on the cost side. The demand side continues to be sluggish, the market trading atmosphere is weak, downstream purchases are made on demand, and new orders are not sold enough. As of April 8th, the market price of 55 powder ammonium in Hubei region is around 2900-3000 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 55 powder ammonium in Henan region is around 3000-3050 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The outbound price of 64% diammonium in Shandong region is around 3900-4100 yuan/ton, and the outbound price of 57% diammonium is around 3560-3660 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of raw material phosphate ore. The phosphate ore market has been operating steadily this week. At present, the overall trading volume in the domestic phosphate ore market is light, and downstream new orders for phosphate ore are mainly for rigid demand procurement, with the market waiting for demand to be released. As of April 8th, the reference price for domestic phosphate ore market is around 1062 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Business Society, the ammonium phosphate market has recently seen a downward trend. At present, although there is support on the cost side, downstream demand is not performing well, and the short-term market situation is difficult to improve. It is expected that the short-term market price of ammonium phosphate will be mainly weak.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market saw a slight increase at the beginning of March, followed by a retracement of the increase, and an overall decline in March. On March 1st, the market average was 6870 yuan/ton, while on March 29th, the average price was 6790 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 1.17%, a decrease of 1.87% compared to the same period last year.

As of March 29th, the mainstream prices of propylene in some regions of China are as follows:

Region/ March 29th

Shandong region/ 6700-6750 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 6350-6500 yuan/ton

East China region/ 6850-6900 yuan/ton

Supply side: tighten first and then loosen. At the beginning of the month, multiple propylene units were shut down, leading to a shortage of goods in the region and a temporary tightening of supply. Starting from mid month, with multiple upstream propylene units gradually resuming operation, the supply has shifted from tight to loose, and in the second half of the month, there was a situation of oversupply.

On the demand side, there is more decline than increase. The overall decline in downstream derivatives of propylene in March was greater than the increase. Isooctanol and isobutyraldehyde were negatively affected by both cost and demand, with a decline of 20.93% and 11.26% in March. The main downstream polypropylene market is weak and volatile, with average enthusiasm for purchasing propylene. Overall, the downstream demand side has poor support, which has a negative impact on propylene demand.

Cost side: still at a high level. In March, the cost side of liquefied gas, methanol, propane, etc. all experienced varying degrees of decline, weakening support for propylene, but remained relatively high. The gross profit of producing propylene from naphtha is about -138 US dollars per ton, the gross profit of producing propylene from PDH is about -300 yuan per ton, and the gross profit of producing propylene from methanol is about -500 yuan per ton.

Future Market Forecast

After a broad decline in late March, the price of propylene fell to a low point, and downstream investors entered the market on dips. At the end of the month, the market slightly rebounded. There is a possibility of multiple propylene units restarting in April, while new production capacity from Jincheng Petrochemical and CNOOC Fine are expected to be put into operation, leading to an increase in supply. In terms of demand, there are plans to restart downstream maintenance equipment in the early stage, which provides some support for the demand side. However, some of the demand remains in high demand, which has constrained the propylene market. Overall, the supply and demand side will maintain a state of oversupply in April, and it is expected that the price center will fluctuate downward.

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, as of March 31, 2024, the reference price for diethylene glycol in the domestic market was 5400 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton or 4.85% compared to the price on March 1, 2024 (reference price for diethylene glycol is 5150 yuan/ton).

From the monitoring of data from Business Society, it can be seen that the domestic diethylene glycol market fluctuated in March, with an increase in focus at the end of the month. The overall supply and demand performance this month is weak, with domestic production starting at a high level and domestic supply increasing. Demand continues to recover, but the follow-up performance is lackluster. In the first half of the month, boosted by news of maintenance of some domestic equipment, the market sentiment was still good, and prices fluctuated and rose. However, in the middle of the month, there was a concentration and a large quantity of cargo arriving at the port. Since March 14th, the main port inventory has increased to 50000 tons, and the market spot has entered a 5150-5165 cycle, greatly reducing trading activity. All parties maintain a wait-and-see attitude. In the second half of the month, the supply and demand continued to be deadlocked, with overall supply remaining loose and no substantial increase in demand. There was a lack of clear news guidance, and the market tended to be weak and consolidating. At the end of the month, there was no significant bearish news in the market, but due to the decrease in inventory and the impact of the end of month delivery period, the market fluctuated upwards.

Downstream demand: The operating rates of polyester and UPR have both slightly increased, with most of them returning to work. However, the overall progress is slow, and there is a significant gap compared to the rapid return of 10000 tons per week in port delivery after the Spring Festival in 2023. The increase in weekly port delivery after the Spring Festival this year is slow. Of course, some of the reasons were due to the high load operation of domestically produced equipment in January and February, which resulted in downstream pick-up concentrated in domestically produced compressed main ports for import shipments. However, the overall pick-up level was still lower than expected, which is still a fact. As of the end of the month, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of UPR is around 33%.

Future forecast: There may be some upward potential in the domestic diethylene glycol market in April. In terms of supply, according to the maintenance news of large-scale integrated devices in China in April, domestic supply may experience a narrow reduction, and the supply pressure may be alleviated to a certain extent; In terms of demand, as we enter April, downstream demand will continue to recover, while demand for unsaturated resins and polyester may steadily increase. Demand performance is the main reference direction for market adjustment. Business Society’s diethylene glycol analyst believes that the domestic diethylene glycol market may experience a strong adjustment in April, and specific attention still needs to be paid to downstream demand growth.

In March, the price of plasticizer DBP first fell and then rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 29th, the DBP price was 9375 yuan/ton, rebounding and increasing by 1.90% compared to the DBP price of 9200 yuan/ton on March 25th; Compared to March 1st, the DBP price dropped by 2.47% to 9612.5 yuan/ton. The raw material n-butanol stopped falling and rebounded, the price of isooctanol stopped falling and rebounded, and the cost of plasticizer DBP stopped falling and rising at the end of the month. Downstream manufacturers have temporarily stabilized production, while inventory levels remain stable. Downstream customers have average purchasing enthusiasm, and the demand for plasticizer DBP is weak. In March, DBP prices first fell and then rose.

The price of n-butanol stopped falling and rebounded in March

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 29th, the price of n-butanol was 7850 yuan/ton, rebounding and increasing by 1.51% compared to the price of n-butanol on March 25th, which was 7933.33 yuan/ton; Compared to March 1st, the price of n-butanol at 8383.33 yuan/ton decreased first and then increased, with a decrease of 6.36%. During the Spring Festival, downstream production of n-butanol has significantly declined, while n-butanol enterprises have maintained a relatively high level of production. The inventory of n-butanol manufacturers has accumulated, and the import volume of n-butanol has increased. As downstream production of n-butanol continues to recover, there is more inventory in the downstream, and the demand for n-butanol has rebounded. However, the inventory of n-butanol has remained high. In addition, the problem of n-butanol inventory accumulation in February has led to an oversupply in the n-butanol market. In March, the price of n-butanol continued its downward trend and continued to decline. Downstream customers were more eager to stock up on dips, and n-butanol manufacturers had a strong willingness to reduce inventory at low prices. At the end of the month, some n-butanol manufacturers were temporarily closed and did not sell, resulting in a decrease in n-butanol supply and a rebound in n-butanol prices; DBP cost support is increasing.

Isooctanol prices fluctuate and fall

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 29th, the quotation for isooctanol was 9825 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.93% compared to the quotation of 12425 yuan/ton on March 1st; Compared to March 27th, the price of isooctanol increased by 2.61% to 9575 yuan/ton. In March, the price of isooctanol continued its downward trend in February and fell unilaterally. In March, the equipment of isooctanol enterprises resumed operation, and the supply of isooctanol increased. Imported isooctanol gradually arrived at ports from February to March, increasing the pressure on the supply of isooctanol; In terms of demand, downstream plasticizer manufacturers are operating at high loads, and there is an upward trend in demand for isooctanol. In addition, the increase in exports of isooctanol provides certain positive support for isooctanol. The supply and demand of isooctanol have increased, and the market for isooctanol remains weak. With the decrease in isooctanol inventory, the price of isooctanol has rebounded and risen. The cost of plasticizer DBP has increased.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that in terms of raw materials: n-butanol first fell and then rose, isooctanol prices rebounded and rose at the end of the month, and DBP raw material costs stopped falling and rose at the end of the month; In terms of supply, plasticizer DBP manufacturers operate stably under high load, with sufficient supply of DBP. As profits decrease, the expected operating load of plasticizer manufacturers decreases, and the willingness of low-priced plasticizer manufacturers to ship decreases; In terms of demand, downstream manufacturers are facing spring maintenance, with a decrease in expected operating load and a decrease in expected demand for plasticizers. In the future, the support for the rise of raw materials will increase; The supply expectation of plasticizer DBP manufacturers has decreased, and downstream PVC demand remains weak. It is expected that DBP prices will consolidate strongly in the future.

This week, the price trend of domestic fluorite has slightly increased. As of the 27th, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3375 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.56% from the price of 3356.25 yuan/ton on the 20th, and a year-on-year increase of 13.66%.

Supply side: Some mines are facing slow resumption of fluorite work due to rectification

The game situation in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises has slightly increased. Upstream mining is tight, and backward mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, recent national departments have issued inquiries to rectify fluorite mines. Fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and some mines are conducting safety hazard inspections. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the progress of fluorite enterprises in resuming work and production. In addition, due to the impact of rectification news, fluorite prices have slightly increased.

On the demand side: The market for hydrofluoric acid is rising, and refrigerant production is still feasible

Recently, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid has risen, and the mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid in various regions has been negotiated to rise to 10200-10700 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market has also risen, and some devices are still in shutdown. There is not much change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid, and the order situation of manufacturers for hydrofluoric acid is normal. The rise in hydrofluoric acid prices is beneficial to the domestic fluorite market, and some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers purchase according to demand. The domestic fluorite market has slightly increased.

The price trend of downstream refrigerants at the terminal is temporarily stable, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry has not changed much. Recently, dealer purchases have been average, and the price trend of R22 is temporarily stable. The mainstream of negotiations is between 25000 and 27000 yuan/ton. The quota cycle in the refrigerant market has begun, and it is difficult for enterprises to change their reluctance to sell. The quota for R134a in China is relatively tight, and some manufacturers have raised their factory prices. Currently, the market quotation for R134a refrigerant is mostly in the range of 31000-33000 yuan/ton. The overall transaction in the refrigerant industry is still good, while the market for some other types of refrigerant products is rising, which has affected the price of fluorite.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material in modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as national defense and nuclear industry, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the driving force of demand in new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the fluorite market has slightly increased.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production for safety inspections. In addition, the trend of hydrofluoric acid market is rising, and the downstream refrigerant industry is gradually entering the peak production season. Positive factors support this. Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society, believes that there is still room for fluorite prices to rise in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, TDI prices in East China continued to decline this week. On March 24th, the average market price in East China was 16500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton compared to the price of 16800 yuan/ton on March 18th, a decrease of 1.79%, and a decrease of 7.82% compared to the beginning of the month.

The TDI market is operating weakly, with low downstream purchasing enthusiasm and a small amount of low-priced purchases. In order to promote transactions, the focus of the market continues to shift downwards. At the same time, news of discounted supply from large factories in the north in late March was released in mid week, creating a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the downstream market. In addition, Shanghai’s large factories have significantly lowered their TDI index prices this week, leading to a gradually stronger willingness for suppliers to ship. However, the downstream is affected by the sentiment of buying up but not buying down, and actual market trading is limited. TDI prices continue to decline.

The upstream toluene market remained stable and upward. On March 24th, the domestic average price of toluene was around 7300 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.14% compared to the price of 7290 yuan/ton on March 18th. The international crude oil price fluctuates narrowly, and there is still some support for the cost of toluene. Downstream prices of xylene have decreased, the domestic mixed blending market has recovered slowly, and demand for toluene is weak. In addition, high levels of toluene port inventory continue to exist, and supply pressure still exists. The price of toluene has remained stable with little fluctuation.

In the future market analysis, TDI data analysts from Business Society believe that factories are operating at high prices, with limited downstream demand, while holders are actively shipping. On site demand is poor, and downstream is gradually occupying a dominant position. There is a lack of positive supply side benefits. Under the supply-demand game, it is expected that the TDI market will continue to operate weakly in the later stage. Please pay attention to the follow-up situation of downstream purchasing.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8202 yuan/ton on March 18, and the average price on March 22 was 8238 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.44% during the period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 9257 yuan/ton on March 18th, and the average price on March 22nd was 9277 yuan/ton, with a 0.22% increase in quotation during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8450 yuan/ton on March 18th, and the average price on March 22nd was 8450 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation remained stable.

The price of polyethylene has slightly increased this week. International oil prices rose first and then fell, and the cost side was significantly boosted at the beginning of the week; Some polyethylene companies have maintenance plans, reducing supply side pressure. Downstream plastic enterprises are gradually increasing their production and demand is increasing. Among them, plastic film is in the peak season of demand, and the accumulation of orders is increasing, with positive expectations for demand.

On March 22nd, the polyethylene l2405 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange opened at 8321 yuan and closed at 8238 yuan, a decrease of 83 yuan, with a maximum of 8339 yuan and a minimum of 8218 yuan, a decrease of 1.00%. This week, the overall polyethylene futures market is relatively strong, and the market is turning weaker towards the weekend.

The maintenance of polyethylene equipment may continue to increase, and the supply side is expected to decrease; The demand for plastic film is in its peak season, and it began to weaken in late April. Currently, downstream orders are still in stock; The economic situation is improving, boosting market sentiment, and it is expected that polyethylene will have a narrow and strong trend.

Recently, multiple production lines in the domestic acrylic acid and ester market have restarted, and their supply has recovered synchronously. However, the demand recovery is less than expected, coupled with a high decline in raw materials, the acrylic acid and ester market has remained stable and downward. Among them, the prices of butyl acrylate and ethyl acrylate have fallen significantly, mainly due to the decline in upstream raw material prices, resulting in lower costs for manufacturers of butyl acrylate and ethyl acrylate, which has a certain impact on market prices. As of March 19th, the reference price for butyl acrylate was 9580.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% compared to the beginning of this month (9660.00 yuan/ton).

The reference price of ethyl acrylate is 9387.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.26% compared to the beginning of this month (9605.00 yuan/ton).

The reference price of isooctyl acrylate is 13375.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37% compared to the beginning of this month (13425.00 yuan/ton).

From the perspective of other products in the industry chain, the fluctuation range of acrylic acid prices is limited, mainly because, on the one hand, the price of raw material propylene has rebounded, with an average propylene market price of 6936 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.74% compared to the beginning of this month (6885.75 yuan/ton).; The average market price of ethanol is 6200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.39% compared to the beginning of this month (6287.50 yuan/ton).; The average market price of n-butanol is 7800.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.41% compared to the beginning of this month (8516.67 yuan/ton). The monthly average price of octanol in the market is 11500.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.54% compared to the beginning of this month (12437.50 yuan/ton). The majority of alcohol market prices have fallen this month, providing moderate support for the acrylic ester market.

The downstream water reducing agent market for acrylic acid is maintaining stable operation, with some monomer production enterprises offering narrow fluctuations in prices. Downstream demand side is not highly sensitive to price, and cautious observation is mainly focused on receiving first-time demand. Early inventory digestion is slow, and it is expected that the monomer market will continue to maintain stable operation in the short term.

The downstream SAP industry of acrylic acid has experienced a phenomenon of oversupply but insufficient demand. This is because although SAP in China has a large production and exports, the product supply is mainly low-end products, and most high-end products need to be imported from countries such as Japan, which has dragged down the market. The SAP industry supply has a structural imbalance in supply characteristics. Currently, the price of acrylic acid in the northern market is relatively stable, and some major manufacturers in the East and South China markets have slightly increased their prices, but market transactions are still slow to follow up.

Overall, the current acrylic acid and ester market is mainly affected by raw materials and downstream demand. Business Society analysts predict that the acrylic acid and ester market will continue to be dominated by supply and demand in the short term, with limited price fluctuation space.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of refined petroleum coke in Shandong market increased first and then decreased this week. As of March 18th, the price of refined petroleum coke in Shandong market was 1700.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.73% from 1712.50 yuan/ton on March 11th.

Cost side: The international crude oil market has fluctuated and risen this week, and the cycle has begun. The Federal Reserve has issued hawkish signals, delaying interest rate cuts and suppressing market confidence; US crude oil inventories have risen for the sixth consecutive week, rising by 1.4 million barrels to 448.5 million barrels. Analysts expect an increase of 2.1 million barrels, putting pressure on crude oil prices. Supported by the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East in the later stage; In addition, the expected reduction in production by oil producing countries is also a major factor supporting oil prices, leading to an increase in international oil prices.

Supply side: This week, the shutdown, maintenance, and production reduction of coking units in refineries have gradually increased, resulting in a relative decrease in supply, which is beneficial to the petroleum coke market; The shipment of imported sponge coke is stable, and traders mainly execute orders.

On the demand side: As of March 14th, there were 325 silicon metal furnaces operating in China, with an overall start-up rate of 43.33%, an increase of 2 furnaces compared to last week. In March, silicon plants resumed production one after another, and the overall operating rate continued to gradually increase. However, some areas have undergone shutdown and maintenance operations, resulting in stable growth in the overall supply situation. At present, the demand for purchasing petroleum coke from metallic silicon is still acceptable, supporting the petroleum coke market.

This week, the overall price of sulfur calcined coke has increased. Recently, some negative electrode factories have started to purchase calcined coke one after another, and the shipment of calcined coke has improved. Currently, calcined coke enterprises are operating steadily, and the market supply is relatively sufficient.

This week, aluminum prices have risen, and the traditional peak consumption season is approaching. Downstream demand may improve. The production capacity of aluminum profiles, aluminum cables, aluminum plates and strips, aluminum foil, primary aluminum alloys, and recycled aluminum alloys is gradually recovering with the resumption of production and work. The future spot trading is expected to improve from the current light trend. Downstream aluminum carbon enterprises still have a demand for petroleum coke and mainly purchase according to demand.

Market forecast: Currently, the coking equipment in refineries is undergoing maintenance, resulting in a decrease in the supply of petroleum coke for local refining, which is beneficial to the petroleum coke market; But currently, downstream demand is limited, and the market maintains a focus on essential procurement; In addition, the continuous arrival of imported petroleum coke at the port may increase the storage of petroleum coke in the port. Overall, it is expected that the price of refined petroleum coke in the near future will remain stable and mainly consolidate.