The price of aluminum fluoride has dropped this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 22, the domestic quotation for aluminum fluoride was 10350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.66% from the price of aluminum fluoride on January 15, which was 10525 yuan/ton. Downstream procurement has decreased, the demand for aluminum fluoride has decreased, and the downward pressure on aluminum fluoride has increased. The price of aluminum fluoride has fluctuated and fallen.

Reduced raw material costs

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 22, the price of fluorite was 3356.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.19% compared to the price of 3431.25 yuan/ton on January 15. The supply of fluorite is sufficient, inventory is low, downstream demand is sluggish, and the fluorite market is declining. The prices of raw materials have fallen, and the cost of aluminum fluoride raw materials has decreased.

Reduced procurement by electrolytic aluminum manufacturers

The cost of electrolytic aluminum continues to rise, the profits of electrolytic aluminum enterprises have decreased, and the willingness of enterprises to start production has decreased. In addition, as the end of the year approaches, some electrolytic aluminum manufacturers are parking for holidays, resulting in a decrease in electrolytic aluminum production. As a result, electrolytic aluminum manufacturers have reduced their purchases of aluminum fluoride, leading to a decrease in demand for aluminum fluoride.

Market Overview and Forecast

Business Society’s aluminum fluoride industry analyst believes that the production of electrolytic aluminum manufacturers has decreased, downstream raw material aluminum fluoride procurement has decreased, and demand for aluminum fluoride has decreased. In the future, the cost of aluminum fluoride will decrease, and the demand will decline. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the auction price of crude benzene increased during the period from January 12 to January 19, 2024. Last week, it was 6388.75 yuan/ton, and this week it was 6626.25 yuan/ton, up 3.72%.

In terms of crude oil: International crude oil futures rose on January 18th. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $73.95 per barrel, with an increase of $1.47 or 2.0%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $79.10 per barrel, an increase of $1.22 or 1.6%.

On January 17, 2024, Sinopec’s listed price for pure benzene was increased by 250 yuan/ton, with a current implementation of 7850 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7600 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7663 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7600 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On January 15th, the price of pure benzene was 7497 yuan/ton, and on Friday (January 19th), the price of pure benzene was 7850 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.94% from last week and 11.9% from the same period last year.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

In terms of the industrial chain, the crude oil market continued to rise this week, with styrene prices rising and pure benzene prices rising externally. Multiple positive factors have affected the continuous upward trend of the pure benzene market next week. Sinopec has raised the listed price of pure benzene twice to 7850 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 400 yuan/ton. Driven by the pure benzene market, hydrogenated benzene enterprises have raised their ex factory prices to 7700-7800 yuan/ton this week, and the current market atmosphere is relatively strong.

After two rounds of price cuts in the supply side of the coke market, coking companies are currently experiencing widespread losses, with some companies voluntarily limiting production. This week, the operating rate has significantly declined, and the supply of crude benzene has tightened compared to the previous period. In terms of demand, the recent increase in pure benzene has driven the market for hydrogenated benzene to heat up, and production enterprises have resumed work. The operating rate has increased compared to the previous period, and the demand for crude benzene is stable with some benefits. As the Spring Festival approaches, enterprises generally have stocking demand and are actively entering the market. Overall, demand support is still acceptable. Overall, the trend of crude oil is somewhat volatile, and currently there is limited guidance for the market. At present, the release of stocking demand has driven up the market atmosphere, and it is expected that there will be some upward space in the crude benzene market in the short term.

Recently (1.8-1.15), the price of butyl acrylate has slightly decreased. According to data from Business Society, as of January 15th, the average price of butyl acrylate in East China was 9580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62% from last Monday. The prices in various regions are as follows: the reference price in the East China market is 10000 yuan/ton; The reference price for the North China market is 10100 yuan/ton, while the reference price for the South China market is 10200 yuan/ton;

The price of n-butanol, the main raw material of butyl acrylate, has once again risen. Supported by high costs, although the price of butyl acrylate has fluctuated slightly, it remains stable overall.

Business Society’s butyl acrylate analyst said that although the butyl acrylate market is related to raw material prices, the overall trading atmosphere in the downstream market is weak. As the end of the year approaches, pre holiday stocking has not yet begun. Under the influence of off-season demand, the overall trading market performance is mediocre, with factories mainly purchasing for essential needs. From the perspective of profitability, high costs create resistance, and the profitability of butyl acrylate is weak, and it is still operating in a loss making area in the near future.

Zinc prices have fluctuated and fallen this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 15th, the zinc price was 21240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 071% compared to January 8th, when the zinc price was 21392 yuan/ton; Compared to January 1st, the zinc price of 21588 yuan/ton decreased by 1.61%. Geophysical risks have intensified, expectations of interest rate cuts in the United States have weakened, and the zinc market continues to be weak. Zinc prices have fluctuated and fallen this week.

Increased geopolitical risks

Since mid December 2023, Yemeni armed militants have attacked ships and seized the important “throat” of the Red Sea. The Red Sea crisis has erupted. On the early morning of January 12, 2024 local time, Britain and the United States launched an airstrike on the armed control area of Yemen’s Husai. The Red Sea crisis is intensifying. The prices of crude oil and gold have risen together, driving the non-ferrous metal sector to slightly recover. But the chain reaction triggered by the geopolitical crisis in the Red Sea has had an impact on the global shipping market and supply chain system, exacerbating expectations of global economic weakness. The rise in zinc prices is weak.

Weakened expectations of interest rate cuts

In December, the number of non farm employment increased by 216000 people beyond expectations; The unemployment rate of 3.7% was lower than expected, and the overall CPI in December was higher than market expectations. The year-on-year growth rate of core CPI has slightly declined but exceeded expectations, and the month on month growth rate has accelerated to 0.3%. The year-on-year growth of PPI in December was 1% lower than expected, while the core PPI remained unchanged on a month on month basis, marking the smallest year-on-year growth rate since the end of 2020. The prospect of interest rate cuts remains shrouded in mist. On Monday, Vishwanath Tirupatur, Global Head of Quantitative Research at Morgan Stanley, posted that the Federal Reserve is more likely to start cutting interest rates in June than the market had previously expected in March. The recently released employment and inflation data, as well as recent speeches by the Federal Reserve, all suggest this path. The expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut has weakened, the US dollar index has risen in the short term, the non-ferrous metal sector is bearish, and the downward pressure on zinc prices has increased.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, the Red Sea crisis has intensified concerns about economic weakness, with uncertain expectations of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut, a weakening US dollar index, and a bearish outlook on the non-ferrous metal market. Overall, the zinc market has sufficient supply and weak demand; Expected weak and volatile zinc prices in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam on January 8th was 13862 yuan/ton, and on January 12th, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 13800 yuan/ton. The price of caprolactam fell by 0.45% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of caprolactam has fallen this week. The price of raw material pure benzene has slightly increased, and the cost side has remained stable with little movement. The parking device for caprolactam is gradually opening up, and the market supply is gradually increasing. Downstream market conditions have fallen, weakening willingness to purchase raw materials. As of January 12th, the settlement price for Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam this week is 14100 yuan/ton, which is a high-quality liquid product. It will be accepted and self picked up in June.

This week, the price of raw material pure benzene has slightly increased. On January 8th, the price of pure benzene was 7413 yuan/ton, and on Friday (January 12th), the price of pure benzene was 7480 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.8% compared to last week. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was 7450 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions were synchronized).

This week, the downstream PA6 market trend is weak, with prices mainly falling. As of January 12th, the average reference price for domestic PA6 is 14675 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Caprolactam Analysts believe that the caprolactam market has been weakening recently. Although there is support on the cost side, there is insufficient support on the supply and demand side. It is expected that the price of caprolactam will be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to focus on cost and supply-demand changes.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the overall domestic dimethyl carbonate market in 2023 has shown a fluctuating and declining trend. The market price of dimethyl carbonate has fluctuated from 4666 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to a low point of 4083 yuan/ton at the end of the year. In 2023, the dimethyl carbonate market experienced a full year decline of 12.5%, with a maximum amplitude of 20.71% for the year.

From the data monitoring system of Business Society, it can be seen that in the first half of 2023, the overall performance of the domestic dimethyl carbonate market was still good, and the overall dimethyl carbonate market showed a fluctuating upward trend in the first half of the year. 1、 In February, the downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate was good, and the phased stocking in the downstream supported the upward trend of the market. On March 10th, the annual high point of dimethyl carbonate appeared, with a price reference of 5150 yuan/ton. Subsequently, demand loosened, and the market continued to decline, with an overall increase of 2.86% in the first quarter. 4、 In May, due to insufficient demand, the overall decline in the dimethyl carbonate market continued in March. In June, some domestic facilities were shut down for maintenance, and the supply side of dimethyl carbonate was tight. Supply supported the upward trend of the market, with an overall increase of 5.56% in the second quarter.

In the second half of 2023, dimethyl carbonate continued to decline, and downstream demand continued to drag down the market. The center of gravity of dimethyl carbonate continued to shift downwards. In the fourth quarter, the market price of dimethyl carbonate has hovered at the bottom, and the low-end prices on the market have also fallen below the 4000 yuan/ton mark. Dimethyl carbonate decreased by 19.41% in the second half of the year.

2023 has passed, can there be a breakthrough in the dimethyl carbonate market in 2024?

Firstly, let’s compare the market trends of dimethyl carbonate in the past two years. From the comparison chart of the market data of Shengyishe, it is clear that the overall market price of dimethyl carbonate in 2023 is lower than the market level in 2022. From the trend of the past two years, the market price of dimethyl carbonate fluctuated greatly in 2022. When the price of dimethyl carbonate reached its peak, the market price was 9933 yuan/ton. When the market price drops, the low point price is 4666 yuan/ton, with a high and low amplitude of 46.56%. Compared with 2022, the overall volatility of the dimethyl carbonate market has weakened in 2023, with the market fluctuating at a low level throughout the year and the overall focus shifting downwards in the second half of the year. Therefore, currently, the market for dimethyl carbonate is at a low level in nearly two years.

In terms of production capacity: In 2022, there was an overcapacity trend in the domestic dimethyl carbonate plant. In 2022, the domestic dimethyl carbonate production capacity was concentrated, and the overall supply of the dimethyl carbonate market increased. In 2022, the total production capacity of dimethyl carbonate in China was about 160000 tons/year, but the downstream demand side transmission and transformation were relatively slow. Entering 2023, there are still some new dimethyl carbonate units in China that have been put into operation, totaling 460000 tons. By the end of the fourth quarter, it is expected that new units will still be put into operation. Therefore, entering 2024, the overall production capacity of dimethyl carbonate is still improving. Although the increase in production capacity can optimize the transmission of the industrial chain, it will increase the supply pressure on factories and make downstream expectations more important.

In terms of technology and supply: Currently, there are three main production processes for dimethyl carbonate in China: PO ester exchange method, EO ester exchange method, and methanol oxidative carbonylation method. Among them, PO ester exchange method is most widely used in domestic production. PO ester exchange method can produce dimethyl carbonate while co producing propylene glycol. The mature production process is also conducive to factories better controlling production costs and profit distribution. In 2023, the annual operating level of dimethyl carbonate is around seven floors. Although the overall operating level is not too high, there is a certain supply pressure in the dimethyl carbonate market for most of the year. Therefore, whether the market can adjust the transmission relationship between supply and demand in a timely manner is also the key to the market trend.

In terms of demand: Since 2019, the downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate in China has quietly changed, with electrolyte solvents and polycarbonate becoming the main consumer terminals of dimethyl carbonate. In 2023, the largest downstream consumption areas of dimethyl carbonate in China are still electrolyte solvents and polycarbonate, with a combined proportion of about 85%. Rubber additives and other fields account for about 15%.

With the booming development of electric vehicles and mobile devices, it is expected that the production capacity of the electric vehicle industry will continue to increase in the future. Therefore, in 2024, the electrolyte solvent market is expected to continue to support the dimethyl carbonate market. The demand for downstream polycarbonate of dimethyl carbonate will also increase year by year. Non light and gas methods use dimethyl carbonate to produce diphenyl carbonate through ester exchange and then through condensation reaction to produce polycarbonate. The production process does not use light and gas, which is safe and pollution-free. With the improvement of environmental protection requirements in China, the use of dimethyl carbonate non light and gas methods to produce polycarbonate in the future may gradually become the mainstream production process. Therefore, in the long run, There is still a strong demand for dimethyl carbonate in the market.

Finally, the traditional market downstream of dimethyl carbonate, including coatings, adhesives, and primary developer, is expected to provide essential support for the demand for dimethyl carbonate.

In summary, the data analyst from Business Society believes that there will still be expectations for the domestic dimethyl carbonate market in 2024. Firstly, although the expansion of production capacity brings about increased production and supply pressure, the overall completeness of the industrial chain of dimethyl carbonate factories will be higher, which is more conducive to boosting market confidence. Secondly, in terms of demand, the new energy sector is gradually distinguishing the downstream of dimethyl carbonate into three sectors: electrolyte solvent, polycarbonate, and traditional downstream. In 2024, the electrolyte solvent market still has the potential for development, and in the future, the conversion of polycarbonate new processes also has the conditions for implementation. With the gradual recovery of the overall environment, the traditional market demand for dimethyl carbonate will also gradually recover. Therefore, let’s hope that the market for dimethyl carbonate will have a new blue sky in 2024.

After the holiday, the high price of cobalt has fallen back

According to the cobalt market analysis system of the Business Society, as of January 8th, the cobalt price was 220600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14% from the cobalt price of 220900 yuan/ton on January 1st; Compared to January 2nd, the cobalt price dropped by 0.32% to 221300 yuan/ton. After the holiday, cobalt prices did not continue their upward trend in December, and transportation in the cobalt market in the Democratic Republic of Congo resumed. However, cobalt prices slightly declined from their high levels after the year.

Weak demand side in cobalt market

Affected by factors such as severe weather and earthquakes in the north, the national consumption level is also in the recovery stage. The holiday travel rate has increased, and aviation consumption has increased compared to the previous period. The demand for cobalt in the alloy industry has increased, but the actual increase is not good. The rush to install the new energy vehicle industry chain in the fourth quarter has ended, and the first quarter is the traditional off-season. The export volume of precursor and positive electrode materials has fallen, and some battery factories have entered production reduction plans. The sentiment of raw material stocking before the Spring Festival is sluggish.

Recovery of cobalt supply in the Democratic Republic of Congo

The preliminary vote count released by the National Independent Election Commission of the Democratic Republic of Congo on December 31, 2023 shows that the current President, Zisekdi, has won the new election. With the end of the general election, transportation in the Democratic Republic of Congo gradually resumed, and the supply of cobalt in the city resumed.

Overview and Outlook

Business Society data analyst Bai Jiaxin believes that before the Spring Festival, the demand for cobalt in the market was weak, and the supply of cobalt in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) recovered. Overall, the cobalt market has strong supply and weak demand, and the support for cobalt price increases is insufficient. Cobalt prices have stopped rising and fallen back. Expect a slight decline in cobalt prices in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the roller coaster trend of the domestic dimethyl ether market in 2023 was characterized by a volatile decline in the first half of the year, followed by an initial rise followed by a decline in the second half, with an overall decline. On January 1st, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan Province was 4450 yuan/ton, and on December 31st, the average price of dimethyl ether was 3775 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 15.17%.

Market Review

The dimethyl ether market in 2023 was not satisfactory due to its own supply and demand and cost factors. In January, the domestic dimethyl ether market steadily rose, with a slight increase mainly driven by the Henan market for dimethyl ether. Starting from the beginning of the month, the downstream stage replenishment began, and the atmosphere of on-site transactions became stronger. The low inventory of dimethyl ether enterprises actively pushed up. As the Spring Festival approaches, the peak of downstream restocking has passed, and prices have stopped rising and stabilized. Starting from February, due to the dual negative effects of cost and demand, the dimethyl ether market entered a downward trend, fluctuating all the way down to the end of May. In early June, the price of raw material methanol stopped falling and rose, and cost support gradually strengthened. Dimethyl ether took advantage of the situation and began to rebound from the bottom. Purchasing and sales improved, and the atmosphere gradually warmed up. In the future, the downstream market entered the peak season of gold, silver, and ten demand, and the price increase continued until mid October. Subsequently, due to the increase in factory operating load in the early stage and the increase in market supply after the peak demand season, the demand side returned to a weak position, and the price of dimethyl ether rose and then fell back to the end of the year.

As a direct upstream methanol of dimethyl ether, the upstream methanol showed a V-shaped trend in 2023. In the first half of the year, the market continued to decline, and under the combined influence of lower than expected macro support, loose costs, and fundamental supply-demand contradictions, the domestic methanol market fluctuated and declined. The bottom of the second half of the year rebounded, coal prices remained stable with some increases, port olefin facilities gradually started operating, domestic demand recovered, overall demand improved, supply recovery fell short of expectations, macro improvement, and the market showed a fluctuating upward trend. Subsequently, the domestic market presented a situation of strong supply and demand, with no prominent fundamental contradictions, and the market entered a stalemate and consolidation stage in the fourth quarter.

Future Market Forecast

From the trend of dimethyl ether in the past three years, there is no bright spot in the dimethyl ether market in 2023, and the price has been lower than in previous years since November. From the perspective of supply and demand in the domestic dimethyl ether market, the current production capacity of dimethyl ether is 7.5 million tons. However, in 2023, the production was less than 1 million tons, and the production has been decreasing year by year, with a significant decline, indicating a weak demand side. From a cost perspective, methanol, as the main raw material for dimethyl ether, its price fluctuations will directly affect the cost of dimethyl ether. Self use enterprises adopt production reduction and pressure reduction measures, while external methanol enterprises are under sales pressure, resulting in long-term negative profit growth in 2023. In the short term, cost support is relatively weak, and there is insufficient action on dimethyl ether. Based on a comprehensive analysis of cost, supply and demand, and policy, the supply and demand of the dimethyl ether market and cost pressures will continue to rise in 2024. It is expected that the price center of dimethyl ether may continue to decline compared to 2023, but due to the current near bottom of dimethyl ether prices, the expected decline is relatively controllable. Taking the Henan market as an example, it may fluctuate within the range of 3500-4500 yuan/ton in 2024, with a high-frequency fluctuation range of 4300-4500 yuan/ton. It is expected that the market price will have a low point in the first quarter and a high point in the third quarter.

The market for styrene butadiene rubber in December fell first and then rose. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of December 29th, the price of butadiene benzene 1502 was at 12391 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.64% from 11841 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the lowest point in the cycle was 11458 yuan/ton. The supply of styrene butadiene rubber in December was loose in the early stage and slightly tight at the end of the month; Downstream tire production has slightly declined due to environmental factors, and market transactions have been lackluster; The raw material butadiene experienced a significant decline in the early stage and a slight rebound at the end of the month, while the price of styrene slightly increased. The cost support for butadiene styrene rubber was weak. At the beginning of the month, the butadiene rubber market was mainly affected by a sharp drop in butadiene prices and a loose supply side, resulting in weak prices; At the end of the month, on the one hand, the price of raw material butadiene rebounded, while the price of styrene slightly increased. In addition, due to the negative impact of the Qilu plant, the short-term supply side of the market tightened, stimulating the price of butadiene styrene rubber to rise.

In December, the supply of styrene butadiene rubber was initially loose, but in the latter half of the month, it was slightly tightened due to the negative impact of the Qilu plant.

In December, the price of butadiene, a raw material for styrene butadiene rubber, fell significantly in the early stage and rebounded slightly at the end of the month, while the price of styrene rose slightly. The cost support for styrene butadiene rubber was weak.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of December 29th, the price of butadiene was 8575 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.03% from 9125 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the low point in the cycle was 8058 yuan/ton; As of December 29th, the price of styrene was 8560 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.90% from 8400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The natural rubber market rose in December, providing slight support for styrene butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 29th, the price was 13060 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.00% from 12680 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the lowest point in the cycle was 12300 yuan/ton.

Demand side: In December, tire production remained stable in the early stage and decreased in the later stage due to factors such as environmental protection and off-season, which weakened the support for rubber demand at the end of the month. It is understood that as of late December 2023, the operating load of all steel tires in rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region was 4.90%; The operating load of semi steel tires in domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.8%.

Market forecast: Business Society analysts believe that currently, the supply of styrene butadiene rubber is tight in the short term, with some support from the cost side, but the demand side is weak. It is expected that the price of styrene butadiene rubber will fluctuate slightly and fall slightly in the later stage as speculation weakens.

The market situation of trichloromethane in December fell first and then rose. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of December 29th, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2070 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.16% from 2066 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the low point in the cycle was 2000 yuan/ton. The start of domestic methane chloride plants in December was affected by the shutdown of some enterprises, resulting in a decrease in the supply of trichloromethane; There is no significant positive support for downstream refrigerant demand, and refrigerant production is basically stable. In the second half of the month, some enterprises replenished their inventory, and the demand for trichloromethane was slightly supported, resulting in a slight rebound in prices.

The domestic methane chloride plant operation in December decreased compared to November.

In December, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated and decreased, while the price of liquid chlorine continued to decline. The cost support for trichloromethane weakened. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of December 29th, the spot price of methanol was 2450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.20% from the beginning of the month’s 2505 yuan/ton, with a high point of 2505 yuan/ton and a low point of 2420 yuan/ton during the cycle; At the end of December, the price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region dropped significantly at -100 yuan/ton.

Downstream refrigerant demand is weak, and production remains stable at a low level. In the second half of the month, some enterprises replenish their inventory in small quantities, which provides some support for trichloromethane. In 2023, the total production quota for R22 will be reduced by 19% to 181800 tons, and overall support for the demand for trichloromethane will weaken in the medium to long term. The quota for 2024 has not been released, but it has little impact on the production schedule of refrigerant manufacturers.

The methane chloride data analyst from Business Society believes that demand for trichloromethane is still weak in the face of support, coupled with lower raw material prices, and it is expected that the trichloromethane market will narrow in the short term. From a medium to long term perspective, under the condition of no strong cost support, the market for trichloromethane will basically show a trend of range fluctuation and consolidation due to demand constraints.