Price Trend

The domestic butadiene market has increased significantly this week. Business Association monitoring showed that the price of butadiene was 10 420 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 10 903 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price of butadiene rose by 4.64% in the week and 4.19% year-on-year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: This week, the domestic butadiene market rose significantly. It is reported that the domestic butadiene plant operated smoothly in January. At present, the social inventory of butadiene is low. The fluctuation of market mindset and supply side has great influence on the market price. However, considering the depressed crude oil price and the drag of the downstream market trend of tyres and other terminals, the rebound of butadiene is limited and the fluctuation of the market is mainly short-fast. With the gradual stagnation of logistics transportation during the Spring Festival, some downstream synthetic rubber manufacturers will reserve raw material stocks before the festival, or will lead to a rebound in the market. In February, due to the light market turnover during the first half of the Spring Festival holiday, the inventory of butadiene manufacturer products increased during the Spring Festival period, which needs to be gradually digested after the year, coupled with the release of new plant capacity, it is expected that the market will be mainly weak consolidation, and the market will continue until the beginning of March. In March, downstream factories started to increase slightly, when the two sessions were held, the logistics transportation was restricted, or the market rebounded slightly. In the first quarter of 19 years, we need to pay attention to the operation of the plant and the change of macro-information policy.

Industry Chain: Styrene Butadiene Rubber: Although Tianguo rebounded, but the impact of supplier growth is less than expected and time is late began to reflect, and because demand has weakened, the market of Styrene Butadiene Rubber shows shocks, the actual transaction price has been loosened, trading flat. Cis-butadiene rubber: domestic cis-butadiene rubber market high shock market. Although the offer is stable, the inquiry atmosphere on the spot is cold, some of the businessmen let the profit to deliver the goods, and the bargaining price center is lowered, and the volume of delivery is scarce. SBS: Oil glue prices in domestic SBS market have been pushed up, and dry rubber road has been changed to price finishing. Oil glue: “two barrels of oil” supply price stable operation, merchants to deliver early empty orders, new single market prices increased, but limited turnover. In the aspect of dry rubber road reform, with the increase of market prices, the industry’s wait-and-see mentality, the atmosphere of winter storage weakens.

3. Future Market Forecast

On the positive side, the external price is firm; butadiene supply side is tight. In short, downstream synthetic rubber market follow-up is insufficient. Business community butadiene analysts expect that the short-term domestic butadiene market continues to be weak, focusing on market turnover.