According to the monitoring data of business society, as of December 3, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 10166 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on November 28, 2021 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 10600 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 434 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.09%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that the domestic dimethyl carbonate market showed a downward trend as a whole this week, with a decrease of 4.09% during the week. At the beginning of the week (November 29), the trading atmosphere of domestic dimethyl carbonate on the floor was general, the spot market on the floor was at a low level, and the supply and demand sides maintained the trend of last weekend without obvious change. On Tuesday (November 30), the market price of dimethyl carbonate fell slightly, with a decrease of 100-200 yuan / ton. The quotation on the floor was chaotic, and the overall trading atmosphere was still weak, The bearish atmosphere of the industry increased, and then entered the mid week stage. The domestic dimethyl carbonate market was weakly and stably consolidated and operated, and the market atmosphere continued to be quiet. The industry watched carefully, and the offer range was temporarily stable. Near the weekend (December 3), the decline of the dimethyl carbonate market was obvious. The factory adjusted the price of dimethyl carbonate by 200-500 yuan / ton. At present, The atmosphere of buyers in the venue is still cold, suppliers generally actively sell goods at a profit, and downstream purchases continue to watch the market carefully.

In terms of index, the dimethyl carbonate commodity index on December 2 was 185.88, the same as yesterday, 25.65% lower than the highest point of 250.00 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and 85.88% higher than the lowest point of 100.00 on June 6, 2021. (Note: the period refers to the period from June 1, 2021 to now)

In terms of upstream dimethyl ether, this week, the domestic dimethyl ether Market in Henan fell as a whole. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of December 3, the ex factory price of dimethyl ether in Henan was 3967 yuan / ton. Compared with the beginning of this week, the price was reduced by 193 yuan / ton, a decrease of 34.63% during the week.

Future trend analysis

It is said that after the equipment maintenance of Shandong plant is completed next week, the dimethyl carbonate unit will start operation soon. In due time, the supply of dimethyl carbonate in the site will increase. Therefore, at present, the dimethyl carbonate industry is still bearish on the future market as a whole, the wait-and-see mood in the downstream is not reduced, and take the goods carefully. The DMC data division of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic DMC market will continue to be weak, mainly through narrow adjustment, and more attention should be paid to the specific changes at the supply and demand side.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price trend of TDI in East China continued to decline in November. At the beginning of the month, the average price of TDI market was 15500 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of TDI was 14350 yuan / ton, a decrease of 7.42% in the month. As of November 30, the reference value of domestic goods with tickets is around 13800-14000 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods with tickets is around 14000-14200 yuan / ton.

In November, the TDI market was weak, and the price continued to decline during the month. The domestic plant operates stably and normally, the supplier has no inventory pressure, the downstream demand continues to be weak, there are few on-site inquiries, the market trading atmosphere is general, the cargo carriers wait and see the market, the focus of negotiation continues to move downward, and the offer continues to decline within the month.

The upstream toluene market fluctuated downward, and the price was reduced to 66170.00 yuan / ton in November, with an overall decrease of 7.78% compared with the price at the beginning of the month. Affected by the international crude oil price shock, the cost side support weakened, dragged down the toluene market mentality, continued weak demand, coupled with the continuous downward impact of mixed xylene, the center of gravity of toluene continued to move downward.

According to the analysis of TDI data division of business society, at present, the TDI market is weak, the supplier’s factory has no inventory pressure, the downstream demand just needs to be followed up, and the transaction of new orders is weak. On the other hand, the market learned that keschuang and Wanhua Fujian may have maintenance plans in December. It is expected that the decline of TDI market will slow down, the aftermarket will be sorted and operated, and the downstream follow-up will be paid more attention to.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, toluene opened a downward channel after a slight rise at the beginning of the month, fell continuously to the end of the month, and fell again after the price rebounded. On November 1, the price of toluene was 6780.2 yuan / ton; On November 30, the price was 6170 yuan / ton, the lowest price in this month was 6170 yuan / ton, and the highest price in this month was 6830.2 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.78% compared with the beginning of the month; Compared with the same period last year, the price difference between the highest price and the lowest price in the month was 660.2 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and review

At the beginning of the month, due to the reduction of export sales of refineries, the supply of toluene in the spot market was tight, driving a small rise in prices. However, due to the poor downstream demand and the continuous downward impact of mixed xylene price, the toluene market mentality was frustrated and the price downward channel was opened. This month, international crude oil prices mainly fell, related commodities generally weakened, various bad news suppressed, and toluene fell continuously.

Late this month, the spot supply of toluene was tight, which was good for re ignition, and the price rebounded. However, crude oil plummeted at the end of the month, related commodities generally fell, domestic gasoline followed the decline, the price support mentality of toluene market was frustrated, and the price stopped rising and falling.

In the external market, toluene in South Korea fell broadly this month, and the decline gradually expanded. As of November 29, the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $747 / ton, down US $125 / ton or 14.33% from October 29.

In terms of crude oil, at the beginning of the month, the crude oil market maintained a tight supply pattern, OPEC + maintained the original production increase plan, and the oil price fluctuated strongly. The US passed a $1 trillion infrastructure investment bill, which also boosted oil prices. In the middle of the month, it was reported that the United States may release strategic oil reserves, superimposing the deterioration of the epidemic in Europe, and the trend of crude oil was frustrated. With the continuous growth of U.S. crude oil inventory, the decline of crude oil expanded. At the end of June, South Africa and other countries found a new variant virus, and the oil price fell sharply, with a single day decline of more than 10%. As of November 29, Brent fell $10.94 / barrel, or 12.97%; WTI fell $13.62/barrel, or 16.3%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI in East China continued to decline this month. At the beginning of the month, the price of domestic goods was 15500 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 14375 yuan / ton, down 7.26% from the beginning of the month and up 11.15% from the same period last year.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price continued to be stable this month, with the price at 7300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 7300 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price was flat compared with the beginning of the month and increased by 69.77% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong showed a downward trend as a whole this month. The price fell broadly at the beginning of the month, rose violently after the middle of the month, and fell again at the end of the month. The price was 8474.8 yuan / ton on November 1 and 7937.2 yuan / ton on November 29, down 6.34% from the beginning of the month and up 49.4% from the same period last year.

As for diesel fuel, the amount of diesel fuel fell by a wide margin this month, rose by a shock in the middle of the month and fell at the end of the month. The price was 8107.4 yuan / ton on November 1 and 7354 yuan / ton on November 29, down 9.29% from the beginning of the month and up 56.62% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of raw materials, crude oil fell sharply at the end of the month, but the market believes that this slump is excessive, and bargain hunting by traders increased. The market is still evaluating the impact of the Omicron variant on the economy and crude oil demand. And the market is waiting for the OPEC + meeting, and the production reduction of major oil producing countries is expected to rise. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of global climate, epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on output, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and so on on on crude oil prices.

Crude oil fell sharply at the end of the month, related commodities fell, and gasoline and diesel prices fell simultaneously. At present, the tight supply of toluene in the spot market still supports the reluctance of the industry to sell, but the cost support is insufficient, the downstream demand continues to be weak, and there are toluene shipments arriving at the port in the later stage, and the market may decline again. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil and external market trend at the raw material end, plant dynamics of enterprises at the supply end, port inventory and downstream purchase at the demand end on the price of toluene.

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the market price of domestic aggregated MDI at the beginning of the month was 21100 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 19360 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 8.25% during the month and a year-on-year decrease of 1.97%.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in October 2021, there were 72 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical sector, including 51 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 51% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were ammonium sulfate (62.96%), chloroform (48.06%) and bromine (43.01%). A total of 24 commodities decreased month on month, and 13 commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 13% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were phosphoric acid (- 27.33%), organosilicon DMC (- 26.28%) and acetic acid (- 24.50%). The average rise and fall this month was 8.3%.

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of November 30:

Region, Wanhua goods, Shanghai goods

North China and Shandong 19000 yuan / ton 18300-18500 yuan / ton

East China 19000 yuan / ton 18300-18500 yuan / ton

South China 19000-19200 yuan / ton 18400-18500 yuan / ton

At the beginning of June, the domestic aggregate MDI market continued to decline. Traders have reduced their quotations for shipment. The weekly guideline price of Shanghai Kesi Chuang is still reduced by a wide margin, and the guideline price of Yantai Wanhua stage is also reduced by a wide margin. The market expectation of insiders mostly turns to decline.

In the middle of the month, the domestic aggregate MDI market fluctuated. Although traders deliberately covered the goods, the demand was suppressed, the price increase was not successful, and the specific transaction was general. Zhou Du Baojia’s guided price was still reduced by a wide margin, the market quotation in the trade link was reduced, and the shipment was actively negotiated. With the reduction of supply in some factories and the rapid decline of market prices recently, middlemen have closed their plates and waited. In addition, the maintenance news of some enterprises broke out, and some traders intended to stir up, but there were few actual orders.

In late June, the domestic aggregate MDI market fluctuated in a narrow range, the weekly guideline price of Shanghai Kesi was increased, and the supply was too small. Other factories also released the news of stabilizing the market, maintained uniform shipment, and the arrival speed was slightly slow. At present, it is in the off-season of downstream hard bubble demand, the downstream replenishment mood is not high, and the shipment speed of traders is fast, but most transactions are at low prices.

At the end of the month, the domestic aggregate MDI market price was weak and volatile, and the high-end price transaction was weak. Affected by epidemic prevention and control, market supply, real estate policy and its own nature, terminal demand is difficult to improve, which plays little role in supporting the market price of aggregated MDI. The aggregate MDI market continued to decline.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene fell significantly. At the beginning of June, pure benzene rebounded slightly driven by the continued rise of crude oil. With the weakening of styrene and the wide decline of crude oil, bulk commodities generally weakened and the price of pure benzene fell. In the middle of the month, affected by the weakness of crude oil and styrene, pure benzene followed the decline. At the end of the month, crude oil fell in shock, the price weakened broadly, the cost support collapsed, and the price of pure benzene continued to decline.

The raw aniline Market stabilized first and then fell. In the middle of June, the raw material side both fell, and the cost side support of aniline weakened; Downstream resistance to high priced aniline increased, follow-up weakened, and the high price of aniline corrected. At the end of the month, the weakness stabilized after the broad decline of aniline, and the downstream delivery mood was general.

Comparison chart of pure benzene (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business society:

Comparison chart of aniline (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business society:

In terms of enterprises, recently, the US chemical week 2021 sustainable development award was announced, and Wanhua chemical HCI green cycle technology was shortlisted as the best cycle practice case, which was also the first time that Chinese enterprises were shortlisted for the award. The innovative HCI catalytic oxidation technology of Wanhua chemical realizes the “chlorine” from open-loop consumption to closed-loop circulation in the production of isocyanate. The technology adopts the world’s first non precious metal catalyst and fluidized bed process. After catalytic treatment under mild conditions, it is directly transformed and refined to obtain high-purity chlorine products. The process has the advantages of high reaction efficiency, green environmental protection, low investment and operation cost.

At present, the mentality of domestic aggregate MDI market is mainly empty. Raw materials fell, and traders were more bearish. The new moon listing price of the factory decreased month on month, creating a bearish atmosphere. MDI analysts of business community expect that the domestic MDI market is mainly low