Since late October, domestic liquid ammonia has gradually bottomed out and stabilized, with the main trend being the fluctuation of ammonia prices in November. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong Province increased by 2.70% in November. The main reason is that in the context of stable downstream demand, there are more equipment maintenance in the northern region, leading to a decrease in operating rates and easing of supply pressure. As of the end of the month, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is between 2600-2800 yuan/ton.

Excessive device maintenance and tight supply performance

In terms of supply, the main issue is the shortage of supply. In November, ammonia plants generally reduced their supply, and the production of equipment in the main northern production areas decreased. Since November, the increase in maintenance equipment and temporary shutdown of ammonia companies have affected some production. Mainly manifested in Shandong, Hebei, Anhui, and the Two Lakes region. Especially in the first and third weeks, there was a significant increase, with manufacturers raising their ex factory prices in a concentrated manner, with a cumulative increase of over 300 yuan/ton. Subsequently, with the recovery of supply, ammonia prices have rebounded slightly, so the ammonia market has emerged from an M-shaped trend. As of the end of the month, the liquid ammonia market is still in a downward trend, but the downward trend has slightly stabilized. Currently, the market shows a basic balance between supply and demand.

The overall improvement of the industrial chain is not significant, with mixed ups and downs in the upstream and downstream

From the perspective of the liquid ammonia industry chain diagram, there has been no significant improvement in the upstream and downstream environment of liquid ammonia, and the upstream natural gas has experienced a significant decline, with a decrease of 5.14% as of the end of the month. Especially in the downstream sector, there is still a general cooling trend with mixed fluctuations. This is mainly reflected in the cold demand in the downstream sector, with agricultural demand entering the off-season and urea experiencing a significant decline, with a monthly decline of 9.74%. In addition, terminal production in major industrial demand sectors is showing a downward trend. The increase in compound fertilizer production did not meet market expectations, and the combination of the two factors resulted in insufficient market action. The demand side constrained the rise in ammonia prices, and this round of increase was mainly driven by the supply side.

Especially downstream urea has shown poor performance, with a 9.74% drop in November according to Shengyi Society. On the one hand, the supply performance is sufficient, but domestic urea manufacturers have insufficient ammonia conversion and high inventory. Combined with weak exports. On the other hand, there was no significant increase in downstream procurement volume, and the market performance remained calm.

Market forecast:

Business analysts believe that from the supply side, under the expectation of equipment maintenance, the supply pressure in the main production areas of the north will gradually ease, and there is a high possibility of a later decline. In addition, as winter enters, the increase in rain and snow weather in the north may limit short-term supply, and local supply-demand imbalances may lead to an increase in price differences.

From the demand side perspective, the early replenishment is gradually coming to an end, agricultural demand is gradually falling, and industrial demand is maintaining rigid demand. This may pose a constraint on ammonia prices in the future. However, considering that imports are still at a low level, a reasonable balance between supply and demand should be maintained in the short term.

Taking all factors into consideration, the price of liquid ammonia is expected to stabilize and stop falling in the near future. However, due to the easing of supply pressure in the short term, there may still be room for price upward movement. Nevertheless, the weak demand expectation during the winter off-season will intensify the supply-demand game, and the ammonia market may experience fluctuations. Additionally, prices between regions may be affected by weather, resulting in uneven distribution of supply and demand, leading to market differentiation and price fluctuations.

The brief supply-demand mismatch at the end of the month led to a slight increase in prices, with some refineries shutting down and limited production resulting in significant spot support. Although the brand price difference narrowed, low inventory limited refinery pressure, and prices mostly remained firm. According to the analysis system of Business Society, the price in Shandong region was 3450 yuan/ton on November 30th.

The destocking of social inventory in East China is relatively obvious, mainly due to the strong support of local demand, especially the significant consumption of ship cargo in some high-speed projects, which drives the destocking of inventory. Low inventory provides support for spot and future winter storage, while international crude oil continues to operate weakly, resulting in limited driving force for overall price increases.

This week, the price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 22, the DOP price was 9201.25 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 3.28% compared to the DOP price of 9513.75 yuan/ton on November 15. The demand for plasticizer DOP is average, and the price of plasticizer DOP fluctuates and falls. The operating rate of downstream plasticizer enterprises is stable, and the supply of plasticizers is sufficient. The price of isooctanol has fallen, and the cost of plasticizer DOP has decreased; The downstream PVC off-season is approaching, and the demand for plasticizers is falling, causing the price of plasticizer DOP to fluctuate and fall.

Downstream demand declines

Downstream PVC product enterprises are gradually experiencing a decline in production, and as we enter November, the traditional off-season in the market, downstream PVC production is expected to decrease. As the weather in the north gradually turns cold, demand is weak; The downstream market is declining, and the downward pressure on plasticizers is increasing.

The cost of raw materials fluctuates and falls

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 22, the price of isooctanol was 9166.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 5.82% compared to the price of 9733.33 yuan/ton on November 15. This week, the operating load of isooctanol enterprises has increased, the supply of isooctanol has increased, and the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen. The increase in supply and demand for isooctanol is average, and the support for the isooctanol market has weakened, resulting in a fluctuating decline in isooctanol prices. The cost has decreased, and the downward pressure of plasticizer DOP has increased.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen, and the cost of plasticizer DOP has decreased; In terms of demand, the off-season is approaching, and downstream production and inventory are expected to decrease, leading to a decline in demand for plasticizers. In the future, the prices of raw materials will fluctuate and fall, the cost of plasticizers will decrease, and the downward pressure of isooctanol will increase; The off-season is approaching, and demand expectations are decreasing, resulting in cost reduction and weak demand. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and fall in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 18th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 1983 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.37% from the reference average price of 2188 yuan/ton on November 11th.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

This week, the domestic urea market prices have weakened and fallen. As of November 18th, the factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1785-1800 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1820 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1800 yuan/ton, in Hubei region it is around 1830 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong region it is around 1960 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

This week, the urea market has strong supply and weak demand. On the supply side, the urea market saw an increase in supply this week. In terms of demand, downstream companies maintain a focus on essential procurement and are cautious in sourcing goods, resulting in a decrease in market transaction volume for new orders.

3、 Future forecast

The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the urea market has weakened recently, and the market is showing a low-level consolidation operation. At present, there is no favorable situation in the supply and demand of urea, and the upward momentum is insufficient. It is expected that the short-term domestic urea market prices will mainly fluctuate at a low level.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic isopropanol market has been operating weakly and steadily this week. On Monday, the average price of isopropanol in China was 6670 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 6660 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 0.15%.

This week, the domestic isopropanol market has been operating weakly and steadily. The market for acetone on the raw material side has declined, with limited cost support. The trading atmosphere on the market is light, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. All holders of goods are maintaining stability in their trading ranges, while downstream buyers are in urgent need of goods and are cautious in their actual orders. As of now, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 6600-6650 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol market prices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 6750-6800 yuan/ton, while prices in South China are around 7100 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the market price of acetone has fallen this week. On Monday, the average price of acetone was 5971.5 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 5830 yuan/ton. The domestic acetone market continued to decline, and the sentiment of terminal factories entering the market to replenish goods was average. The overall trading atmosphere was lukewarm, and traders arranged shipments according to the market. The actual negotiations and follow-up were limited, and the trading was average. The offers kept moving towards the low-end.

In terms of propylene, the propylene market fluctuated within the range this week. On Monday, the average price of propylene in China was 6790.75 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 6833.25 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.63%. At present, the inventory of enterprises is low, and the downstream willingness to replenish inventory is increasing. It is expected that the market will experience strong fluctuations and consolidation in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The isopropanol analyst from the Chemical Branch of Shengyi Society believes that the isopropanol market will remain stable and stable this week. The acetone market continues to decline, while propylene fluctuates within the range, with limited cost support. The enthusiasm for downstream procurement is average, and downstream procurement is mainly based on demand. It is expected that the isopropanol market will continue to stabilize and operate in the short term.

Isooctanol prices fluctuate and rise in November

 According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 8th, the price of isooctanol was 9266.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 2.58% compared to the price of 9033.33 yuan/ton on November 1st. In November, the demand for isooctanol rebounded, and the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose. The supply and demand of isooctanol have increased, and the market support for isooctanol still exists. The price of isooctanol has fluctuated and risen.

Cost support for isooctanol in November

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 8th, the price of propylene was 6848.25 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 0.92% compared to the price of 6785.75 yuan/ton on November 1st. Crude oil prices fluctuated and rose, with increased cost support. In November, propylene prices fluctuated and rose, and the cost of isooctanol raw materials increased. The cost support for isooctanol increased, and the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose in November.

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuate and rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 8th, the DOP price was 9238.75 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 1.51% compared to the DOP price of 9101.25 yuan/ton on November 1st. The demand for plasticizer DOP has increased, and the price of plasticizer DOP has fluctuated and risen. The operating rate of downstream plasticizer enterprises has increased, and the demand for isooctanol by plasticizers has also increased. Supported by demand for octanol, octanol prices have fluctuated and risen.

Future expectations

The data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product believes that the volatile rise in propylene prices, supported by costs, has increased the driving force for the rise of isooctanol; Downstream plasticizer manufacturers are operating at high levels, and demand for isooctanol is steadily increasing. As the price of octanol rises to a high level, downstream customers’ resistance to high priced octanol increases, leading to a decrease in market purchasing enthusiasm and a decline in octanol prices. In the future, with both supply and demand increasing, the supply and demand of isooctanol are relatively balanced, and the price of isooctanol is stabilizing.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash first rose and then fell in October. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was 1614 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was around 1584 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 30 yuan/ton during the month, a decrease of 1.86%. On October 31, the light soda ash commodity index was 81.23, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 57.04% from the cycle’s highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 28.63% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the soda ash market has been consolidating and operating this month. Returning from the National Day holiday, due to the strong rise in the downstream glass market, the price of soda ash has been boosted by a narrow upward trend. However, the utilization rate of soda ash production capacity is high, and the market supply is sufficient. Downstream consumers mainly consume inventory, and their enthusiasm for entering the market is not high. They follow up more on demand, resulting in poor soda ash shipments and insufficient market transactions. Under the game of supply and demand, soda ash prices are weakly declining. As of October 31, 2024, the mainstream market price for light soda ash in the East China region is around 1420-1600 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price for light soda ash in Central China is around 1370-1600 yuan/ton.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, glass prices have shown a strong upward trend this month, with an average market price of 13.45 yuan/square meter at the beginning of the month and 15.95 yuan/square meter at the end of the month, an increase of 18.59%. The glass spot market has risen widely, downstream demand has improved, and there is a significant destocking in the market. The trading atmosphere in the market has increased, and the glass market has risen strongly.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, the price comparison index of soda ash and glass commodities on October 31 was 84.55, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 24.76% from the highest point of 112.37 points during the cycle (October 6, 2023), and an increase of 9.61% from the lowest point of 77.14 points on August 16, 2023. (Note: Cycle refers to January 1, 2012 to present)

Market forecast: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the recent price trend of light soda ash is mainly weak and stable. Although the downstream glass market price is strong, the demand for soda ash is limited. In addition, the high inventory of soda ash puts great pressure on enterprise sales. It is expected that the soda ash price will continue to weaken in the later period, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market was 883 yuan/ton on October 1st, and 856 yuan/ton on October 30th. This month, the market price of ammonium sulfate has dropped by 3.02%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium sulfate first rose and then fell in October. Returning from the holiday at the beginning of the month, due to the strong urea market and favorable ammonium sulfate market, coupled with stable market demand, the market price of ammonium sulfate has risen. The market price of ammonium sulfate continued to decline from mid October until the end of the month. The operating rate of ammonium sulfate enterprises has increased, leading to an increase in market supply. The downstream purchasing intention is not strong, the market inquiries have decreased, and there are many low-priced purchases, causing the market transaction center to continuously shift downwards. The demand for exports has weakened, and the market is running weakly. As of October 30th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 820 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 830-880 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly K-bar chart from July 1, 2024 to September 16, 2024, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate cycle is fluctuating. Ammonium sulfate fell significantly in October, with the largest drop being -2.92% in the week of October 14th.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the trading atmosphere in the ammonium sulfate market has been poor recently, downstream demand has weakened, and market transactions have been sluggish. At present, there is no positive news in the market, and it is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market price will continue to be weak and mainly operate in the short term.

On October 28th, the market price of epichlorohydrin continued to decline. At present, the market trend of epichlorohydrin is weak, with a quiet trading atmosphere, few actual orders, low enthusiasm for inquiries, and mainly a wait-and-see attitude. As of October 28th, the mainstream price in the Shandong market is around 8600-8800 yuan/ton.

This week, the domestic phenol market showed stability in the first half of the week and a slight increase in the second half. According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic phenol market price was 7727 yuan/ton on the 18th and 7827.5 yuan/ton on the 25th, an increase of 1.29% for the week.

Sinopec Huadong phenol is listed at a price of 7750 yuan/ton. Sinopec North China phenol is listed at a price range of 7700-7750 yuan/ton. As of the 25th, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country are as follows:

Region/ Quotation on the 25th/ Zhou’s ups and downs

East China region/ 7780./ 150

Shandong region/ 7900./ -50

Surrounding areas of Yanshan Mountain/ 7750./ -50

South China region/ 7800./ -50

From the supply side, in terms of equipment, there was no on-off status of phenol ketone during the week, and the overall operating rate of the industry was over 80%. The port has seen an increase in inventory, with an initial count of around 10000 tons at the beginning of the week. In the middle of the week, domestic trade ships and cargo mainly arrived in Hengyang. Currently, there is not much pressure on spot supply, and coupled with the high average price within the month, traders have a greater intention to push up their offers. The market center of gravity will push up in the latter half of the week.

The downstream bisphenol A spot market has slightly declined, and overall it remained lukewarm in October. Market offers have been steadily maintained, and negotiations in the East China region have reached 8800-9000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton compared to last month. There is currently no significant news impact on the market.

It is expected that the overall market will operate weakly next week. According to statistics, there are still 28000 tons of goods in transit, and the overall supply may increase next week. Please pay attention to the market demand situation next week.