According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from March 8th to 15th, the domestic ethanol price fell from 6312 yuan/ton to 6275 yuan/ton, with a weekly price drop of 0.59%, a month on month decrease of 2.33%, and a year-on-year decrease of 12.33%. The domestic ethanol market is relatively weak, with production enterprises mainly focusing on regular orders. Enterprises have started to continuously reduce their prices to stimulate shipments.

On the cost side, the overall price of corn remains stable, with narrow fluctuations in some areas. The surplus grain at the grassroots level in the domestic main production areas is lower than expected, and the market’s bullish attitude has increased. The enthusiasm of traders to enter the market for purchases has also increased, and the grain rights have gradually shifted from grassroots to trade and downstream enterprises. The pressure on grain sales has gradually eased, and it is unlikely that corn prices will hit new lows. The cost of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, there are significant differences in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions; In the short term, the domestic ethanol supply is expected to be positive and the supply side continues to expand. It is expected that the Anhui COFCO plant will produce in mid March; Carbon Xin Technology plans to produce and ship; Short term shipments from Zhaodong COFCO; Incremental production of the Sunan plant. The supply side of ethanol is affected by bearish factors.

On the demand side, downstream chemical industry just needs to purchase, methyl ethyl ester plant is about to recover, and sugar liquor will wait for orders for Baijiu. The short-term demand for ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

In the future market forecast, the favorable raw materials will drive the production of equipment to a high level, and downstream demand will be the main demand. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market will be mainly focused on consolidation and observation.

Since March, the epoxy resin market has experienced a slight decline and gradually bottomed out, but the bearish sentiment has led to a sustained downturn in the epoxy resin market. According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the liquid epoxy resin market in East China was quoted at 13333 yuan/ton on March 1, the liquid epoxy resin market in East China was delivered at 13000-13200 yuan/ton of purified water on March 14, and the solid epoxy resin market in Mount Huangshan was delivered at 12800-13200 yuan/ton of spot exchange on March 14.

Both bisphenol A and epichlorohydrin are operating at a disadvantage, with insufficient cost support. The domestic bisphenol A market has been experiencing a broad decline since late February, and the overall weakness in March has bottomed out. The current market offer is between 9250-9400 yuan/ton, mainly due to the sluggish upstream raw material phenol ketone, poor terminal demand, and a bearish atmosphere on the market. Traders lack confidence in the future market.

The focus of the epichlorohydrin market continues to decline, with market prices at 8075 yuan/ton as of March 14. As of 2024, the epichlorohydrin market has remained stable with little fluctuation. In the context of weak supply and demand, it is expected that epichlorohydrin will maintain a low level adjustment in the short term.

Business Society predicts a weak adjustment in the epoxy resin market, with the East China liquid resin market at 12800-13200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the trend of new production capacity and changes in raw materials.

From January to February 2024, the domestic calcium carbide market continued its weak trend before the year, with overall poor terminal demand. Production was mainly maintained for the purchase of raw materials, and the price of calcium carbide had bottomed out. Enterprise losses increased, and in order to reduce inventory pressure, factory shutdowns or load reductions increased.

The cumulative production from January to February increased by 1.7% compared to the same period last year, and the operating rate remained at around 70-80%. The main reason for the increase in production was the gradual production of new facilities in 2023, which increased their production capacity base.

In terms of market prices, there was a significant decline in the market in January, and it remained stable from February to March. Taking the Wuhai region as an example, the average price in February reached 2714.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.2% compared to the same period last year and a decrease of 6.8% month on month.

The sustained downturn in the calcium carbide market is mainly affected by downstream product demand. Currently, the price of calcium carbide is operating at a low level, and enterprises are reducing their burden and demand is slowly recovering. The inventory pressure on factories is decreasing, and some enterprises are increasing their operating rates. The supply pressure on calcium carbide is still significant, and the downstream operating situation is not optimistic. In the short term, calcium carbide still maintains a range adjustment operation.

Recently (3.1-3.11), the market for nitrile rubber has slightly increased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 11th, the price of nitrile rubber was 15400 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.15% from 15225 yuan/ton on the 1st. The prices of raw materials such as butadiene and acrylonitrile have risen, and the cost of nitrile rubber continues to support it; After the holiday, downstream rework occurred, and the production of the rubber hose industry gradually increased to around 60%. The demand for nitrile rubber is still supported. The inventory pressure of nitrile rubber enterprises is average, and the market price of nitrile rubber has slightly increased.

Recently (3.1-3.11), the prices of raw materials such as butadiene and bin washing have increased, and the cost of nitrile rubber continues to support. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 11th, the price of butadiene was 11532 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.94% from 11095 yuan/ton on the first day; As of March 11th, the price of acrylonitrile was 9637 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.31% from 19512 yuan/ton on the 1st.

Recently (3.1-3.11), the domestic nitrile rubber plant has been operating steadily overall.

After the holiday, the production of downstream industries such as nitrile rubber hoses and insulation foam in China has gradually increased to around 60%. The demand for nitrile rubber has some support in the market, but downstream inquiries for high-level goods are cautious, and market transactions are flat.

Market forecast: Business Society nitrile analyst believes that currently, nitrile rubber is supported by the rising cost of butadiene prices, and on the other hand, although downstream production is gradually increasing, it is still at a low level overall. This will provide some support for nitrile rubber in the short term, and it is expected to fluctuate with the nitrile rubber market in the later period.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market has remained stable this week. As of the weekend, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 4060 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 4060 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, a year-on-year decrease of 7.31%.

This week, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market has remained stable, with stable operation of domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers. Recently, the supply of goods on site has been normal, and the downstream procurement situation is still good. The price of ammonium nitrate market is mainly stable. Recently, downstream demand for nitro compound fertilizer has been average, and the purchasing atmosphere in the domestic downstream civil explosive industry has cooled down. Domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers are operating normally, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate has been stable recently. As of now, the mainstream negotiation prices in Shaanxi region are 5400-5600 yuan/ton, Shandong region is 3800-4000 yuan/ton, and Hebei region is 3900-4000 yuan/ton.

This week, the price of concentrated nitric acid in China has slightly declined. As of the weekend, the average price of nitric acid in China was 1840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.65% compared to the price of 1890 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Mainstream enterprises in East China offer a price range of 1800-1900 yuan/ton, while those in the North and Central China offer a price range of 1800-2000 yuan/ton. At present, the supply side of the concentrated nitric acid market is sufficient, and the cost trend has slightly increased. The market mainly relies on orders, and the transaction situation is not good. Industry insiders are mostly wait-and-see, and the on-site price of nitric acid has slightly decreased. The price trend of ammonium nitrate in the market is stable.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia has increased this week. As of the weekend, the price of liquid ammonia was 3200 yuan/ton, which is 7.50% higher than the price of 2976.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. The amount of ammonia released in the main production areas in the north has decreased, and some units in Shandong have started operating steadily. The market has shown tight supply, and prices of large factories in Shandong and surrounding Hebei have generally risen. In addition, downstream procurement enthusiasm has increased, supply and demand contradictions have eased, and manufacturers have raised factory prices. Currently, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 3200-3300 yuan/ton, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has not changed much due to cost support.

Recently, the downstream civil explosive industry procurement has come to an end, and the demand for nitro compound fertilizer is in the off-season, with a downward trend in nitric acid prices. However, the upstream liquid ammonia price has risen, and the combined influence of long and short factors has led to fluctuations in the market price of ammonium nitrate, according to analysts from Business Society.

In February, the domestic polysilicon market performed steadily, with little change in prices from major manufacturers. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the monthly rise and fall of single crystal dense materials is 0. The main reason is that it coincides with the Chinese Lunar New Year, and the market supply and demand performance is stable. According to data from Business Society. As of the end of the month, the mainstream range for single crystal dense materials with a model of first-class solar energy is maintained at 55-6000 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, silicon material manufacturers maintain a reasonable level of operation, while large factories maintain normal operation during the solar term. There have been no significant changes in the overall supply situation, as downstream silicon wafers have also maintained a normal operating state during the solar term, silicon material shipments have remained at a normal level, and silicon material inventory in large factories is still at a medium to low level. From the signing situation of large silicon material factories, the post holiday signing situation is flat, with only a few manufacturers having large-scale transactions. This is also the main reason why silicon material manufacturers have not experienced a rebound in prices. However, as downstream silicon wafer production increases, the bargaining power of silicon material manufacturers will gradually increase in March.

From the demand side, the demand for silicon materials in the February market was relatively rigid, with slightly average pre holiday sales, but post holiday production at the crystal pulling end remained at a medium high level. The operating rate of silicon wafers continues to rise, and the inventory level is also rising. The main reason is that downstream battery cell procurement has decreased, and battery cell manufacturers generally stop work and have long holidays. Before the holiday, only part of the production line is retained for operation and production, making it difficult to digest more silicon wafer inventory. Silicon wafer factories face significant shipping pressure. As of the end of the month, the mainstream transaction price of P-type M10 silicon wafers has remained stable at 2.05 yuan/piece; The mainstream transaction price of P-type G12 is 3.00 yuan/piece; The mainstream transaction price for N-type M10 silicon wafers is 2.00 yuan/piece; The mainstream transaction price for N-type G12 is 3.10 yuan/piece.

Market forecast: The supply and demand pattern of the silicon material market may improve in the near future. On the one hand, the supply of silicon material manufacturers remains abundant and unchanged. On the other hand, downstream silicon wafers will consume silicon material inventory more quickly due to high opening prices. Coupled with the expected increase in the operating rate of terminal battery cells in March, the rebound in terminal demand will stimulate upstream and midstream silicon wafers. Therefore, it is expected that the quotation for silicon materials in March may rebound.

Recent trends in urea prices

Agricultural fertilizer preparation has been gradually launched, and urea prices in Shandong have slightly increased this week. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of urea in Shandong increased from 2508.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2516.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.33%, and the weekend price decreased by 10.47% year-on-year.

From the supply side perspective, some gas companies have resumed production and started operating higher. The data shows that the operating rate of domestic coal urea enterprises this week is about 86.1%, while that of gas urea enterprises is about 85.8%. The daily urea production in China is about 190000 tons. The mainstream urea manufacturers in Shandong saw a slight increase in factory prices during the week.

From the upstream market, it can be seen that the urea upstream market has risen significantly this week: the rainy and snowy weather has ended, leading to a significant increase in production by gas companies, an increase in terminal demand, and a good trading atmosphere. The price of liquefied natural gas surged 7.24%, and the weekend price fell 41.35% year-on-year. The price of smokeless coal has slightly increased, with the price of Yangquan smokeless coal (washing medium block) increasing by 33 yuan/ton to 993 yuan/ton over the weekend. Overall, the significant increase in upstream raw material prices has increased support for urea prices.

From the perspective of downstream demand: winter wheat fertilizer preparation is gradually being launched, agricultural demand is gradually increasing, and industrial demand is adapting to the market. Composite fertilizer companies are experiencing an increase in production, while board and melamine companies are operating at a low level, with a focus on essential procurement. This week, the downstream price of melamine in urea has stabilized at a high level, with a price of 7475 yuan/ton. From the perspective of exports: Although there are still bids overseas, the impact of urea export policies on the domestic market is not significant.

Looking at the future: In early March, the urea market in Shandong may experience a slight fluctuation and rise. Business Society urea analysts believe that the upstream market for urea has significantly increased, and the cost support for urea has increased. Downstream industrial demand is the main focus, while agricultural demand is gradually starting. In the future, urea may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and mainly rise.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of February 29, 2024, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference was 15360 yuan/ton. Compared with February 1 (organic silicon DMC reference 14980 yuan/ton), the price increased by 380 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.54%.

In February, the domestic organic silicon DMC market as a whole experienced a steady upward trend. In early February, on the eve of the Spring Festival, the downstream stocking of organic silicon DMC basically ended, and the market performance remained stable with a slight strong trend. During the holiday period, the organic silicon DMC market operated steadily, and the basic news on the market was relatively calm.

In late February, with the return of the holiday, the organic silicon DMC market began a broad upward trend. After the holiday, Shandong large factories took the lead in raising the price of organic silicon DMC to 15200 yuan/ton. The increase by large factories has driven the market’s restless desire for an increase, and other factories have also started to follow in the footsteps of large factories, raising the price of organic silicon DMC.

At the end of the month, the phenomenon of large domestic factories closing their stocks has increased, and leading companies closing their stocks continues to inject an upward atmosphere into the market. The overall focus of the organic silicon DMC market continues to approach high levels. As of February 29th, the price of organic silicon DMC in the domestic market is around 15200-15600 yuan/ton.

Analysis of the driving factors supporting the upward trend of the organic silicon DMC market:

In terms of supply: Prior to the holiday, the downstream of organic silicon DMC was generally well stocked, but returned after the holiday. The overall supply inventory in the market is controllable, and some factories have pre orders in the early stage, so the shipping pressure is not high. Coupled with the impact of weather factors in some regions after the holiday, the spot circulation of organic silicon DMC is limited. Therefore, overall, in February, the supply side provided strong support to the organic silicon DMC market.

In terms of demand: Before the Spring Festival, the overall demand for organic silicon DMC market was good, and the supply and demand transmission was relatively smooth. After the holiday, downstream markets gradually resumed work and production, and the demand for raw materials remained mainly based on rigid procurement, gradually releasing demand. Therefore, the demand side also brought some impetus to the upward trend of the organic silicon DMC market in February.

Prediction of the future trend of organic silicon DMC market

At present, the trading atmosphere of organic silicon DMC on the exchange is still good, and the mentality on the exchange is good. The operators have certain expectations for the future market. The organic silicon DMC data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market will mainly operate at high levels, and more attention should be paid to changes in supply and demand news.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of February 29, 2024, the domestic market price of butanone was referenced at 8150 yuan/ton. Compared with February 1, 2024 (reference price of butanone was 7683 yuan/ton), the price increased by 467 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.07%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in February, China’s butanone market experienced a relatively broad upward trend. During the month, the focus of negotiations in the butanone market continued to move towards higher levels. As of February 29th, the domestic butanone market price was referenced at around 8000-8400 yuan/ton, while the higher price was referenced at 8600 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of over 6% in February.

Analysis of Factors Supporting the Rise of Butanone Market

In terms of cost: In February, the overall market situation for carbon tetrachloride after the ether end of butanone raw materials showed an upward trend. The continuous increase in raw material prices provided support for the cost of butanone, and the overall market situation of butanone rose with the “original” trend.

On the eve of the Spring Festival, the trading atmosphere in the butanone field was quiet, and the overall production of butanone was low, with an operating rate of around 66-67%. During the holiday period, the performance of the butanone market was calm, with no significant changes in production and capacity. After the holiday, Shandong Yibutanone factory has a plan to restart the equipment, while many other parking devices have no plans to start up temporarily. Therefore, the overall adjustment of the post holiday butanone market is still not significant, and the pressure on butanone factories to ship is also not high, driving the market to operate steadily.

In terms of demand: Before the Spring Festival, the downstream stocking of butanone market was basically completed, and the market demand performance was average. After the end of the holiday, downstream factories of butanone have gradually returned to the market, and the intention to purchase raw materials of butanone has gradually been released. In addition, some factories have executed export orders after the holiday. Therefore, in February, the demand side as a whole provided some support to the butanone market.

Market analysis of butanone

Overall, the rise in the butanone market this time has been supported by multiple factors. As the market continues to warm up, downstream demand for butanone will also continue to recover. Therefore, the butanone data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mostly operate steadily with a strong bias, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the specific news changes on the supply and demand side.

Aluminum prices fell by 0.4% in February

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, aluminum prices fell by 0.4% in February 2024. As of the 29th, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 18876.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.4% compared to the average price of 18953.33 yuan/ton in the East China market at the beginning of the month (February 1st).

In the long term, the current price is in the “M” type price state since the second half of 2023, and the price level has been in the upper middle level in the past year.

Periodic accumulation of aluminum ingots in February

As of February 29th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the main domestic market was 815000 tons, which is 449000 tons compared to the beginning of the month (February 1st). The accumulated inventory during the month was 366000 tons, of which 167000 tons were accumulated during the Spring Festival holiday. Based on historical inventory data, the current inventory level is at a low level in the same period in history. However, compared to the month on month data, the accumulated inventory of electrolytic aluminum before and after the holiday is at the middle level in history.

Overview of aluminum ingot fundamentals in February

Returning after the holiday, the power outage incident at an aluminum plant in Inner Mongolia may affect production capacity, and actual production changes are limited; In the southwest direction, Yunnan has good precipitation, and the hydroelectric power generation may drive the resumption of a small amount of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in March. Yunnan’s early production reduction has been basically completed, and the risk of subsequent production reduction is relatively small. It is expected that Yunnan’s production will steadily increase slightly before the rainy season, with little variation. In terms of policy, although the latest round of sanctions imposed by the United States on Russia includes aluminum industry manufacturers, it does not directly involve Russian aluminum, and the news is generally disturbed.

Factors influencing the future trend of aluminum prices

On a macro level, there is some hedging of domestic macro factors. The annualized quarter on quarter correction of the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index in the fourth quarter of the United States was 2.1%, exceeding expectations by 2%. While the PCE was revised upwards, the actual GDP in the fourth quarter of the United States unexpectedly decreased to 3.2%, which was lower than expectations. The Federal Reserve’s swap rate shows that the Federal Reserve is likely to only cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2024, and investor expectations for the magnitude of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank continue to weaken.

On the domestic side, the central bank has lowered the benchmark loan interest rate LPR again after eight months. The People’s Bank of China authorizes the National Interbank Funding Center to announce that on February 20, 2024, the loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) is 3.45% for 1-year LPR and 3.95% for 5-year and above LPR. The former remained unchanged compared to the previous period, while the latter decreased by 25 basis points compared to the previous period. Lowering the medium – and long-term LPR benchmark interest rate will help reduce the pressure on residents to purchase properties and repay existing housing loans, which is conducive to further promoting investment and consumption.

2. On the supply and demand side, after the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival), the downstream consumption gradually recovered, the automobile and photovoltaic sectors started to work fairly well, and the construction sector’s operating rate also began to rise at a low level recently. The overall demand has improved.

3. On the cost side, changes in the price of raw alumina. In the short term, with loose expectations for ore supply, especially some alumina production enterprises in Shanxi and Henan regions in China actively promoting mine resumption, short-term cost support is average.

Future Market Forecast

The traditional peak season for consumption is approaching, and downstream demand may improve. The production capacity and operating rate of aluminum profiles, aluminum cables, aluminum plates and strips, aluminum foils, primary aluminum alloys, and recycled aluminum alloys are gradually recovering with the resumption of production and work. The pressure on aluminum ingot inventory accumulation may weaken in the future, and spot transactions are expected to improve from the current light. It is expected that aluminum prices will experience strong fluctuations in March.