In October 2022, the domestic 1 # tin ingot market suffered from shock and decline. The average price of the domestic market was 185460 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 166410 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 10.27%.

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

On October 31, the tin commodity index was 84.77, down 0.97 points from yesterday, down 54.84% from the cycle’s highest point of 187.70 (2022-03-09), and up 97.78% from the lowest point of 42.86 on December 9, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

 

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the monthly K-bar chart that the tin price has mainly declined in the past six months, with a large decline of -18.54% in May and -22.32% in June. From the weekly K-bar chart, we can see that the lead price has fallen more or less recently, and the overall decline.

 

Tin futures market in October 2022

 

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Variety, closing price on September 28, closing price on October 28, inventory on September 28 (tons), and inventory on October 28 (tons)

Shanghai tin, 182660 yuan/ton, 164770 yuan/ton, 1473., 2352

London tin, 20600 dollars/ton, 18070 dollars/ton, 5070., 4450

In October, the tin price fluctuated downward. In addition to the impact of macro factors, the most important factor affecting the continuous decline of tin price is supply and demand. Since September, the tin output has gradually recovered, and the smelters for early maintenance have started work in succession. The tin output has increased significantly since September. As the profit of imported tin rose, the import of refined tin was better since the third quarter of this year, and the domestic tin supply was generally OK. In terms of downstream demand, the downstream of tin is mainly tin solder, which is mainly used in electronic products, accounting for about 80% of tin solder. However, the overall performance of the electronics industry has been poor in recent years, not only in domestic but also in foreign electronics consumption, which makes it difficult for downstream demand to support tin prices. On the whole, there is no big positive expectation for the supply and demand of tin in the near future, and tin is very vulnerable to macro and market capital disturbance due to its low inventory. The business community expects that the future tin price will still be more affected by macro, mainly maintaining a wide range of shocks, and the overall trend is weak.

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Adjustment of DOTP price weakness in October

 

PVA 2088 (PVA BP20)

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the DOTP price was adjusted by wide shocks in October, and the plasticizer market was adjusted by weakness in October. As of October 31, the average DOTP price was 9975 yuan/ton, down 1.24% from the average price of 10100 yuan/ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month. Although the raw material isooctanol rose for many times in October, it quickly fell back after a short rise, while PTA’s price fell more sharply in October, with insufficient cost support. In October, DOTP’s price was adjusted due to weak shocks.

 

Price trend of raw materials

 

According to the data of the business association; As of October 31, the price of isooctanol was 9166.67 yuan/ton, up 2.61% from 8933.33 yuan/ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month. In October, the price of isooctanol had two peaks of rise. At the beginning of the month, the demand of enterprises to replenish the stock recovered. In the middle of the month, the supply of isooctanol enterprises for maintenance decreased. However, the market demand for isooctanol remained weak, and the support for the rise of isooctanol was insufficient. After two rises, the price of isooctanol fell rapidly. In the future, the support for the rise of isooctanol was limited, and the price of isooctanol was mainly adjusted by wide shocks. The rise of raw materials is not supported enough, and the DOTP price is expected to stabilize due to shocks.

 

According to the data of the business community, as of October 31, the PTA price was 5700 yuan/ton, down 10.63% from the price of 6378.33 yuan/ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month. In October, PTA overhaul and production reduction capacity decreased compared with the previous month. PTA terminal demand is weak, resulting in further accumulation of polyester factory inventory, lack of positive impetus, PTA downward pressure is large. The price of raw materials fell, and the downward pressure on DOTP increased.

 

The market of plastic products remained weak in October

 

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It can be seen from the output histogram of plastic products that the output of plastic products will decline slightly in 2022. Although the output will recover slightly in September, the overall market of plastic products remains weak. In addition, the domestic manufacturing industry shrank in October. With the decline of the operating rate of PVC enterprises in October, the overall industry inventory increased, the downstream demand digestion capacity was insufficient, and the PVC demand expectation was insufficient. Downstream market is still weak, and plasticizer DOP price has great downward pressure.

 

Future market expectation

 

According to DOTP data analysts of the business community, the price of DOTP raw material isooctanol rose repeatedly in October without success, PTA prices continued to fall sharply, DOTP costs fell, and DOTP growth supported the decline; On the demand side, the domestic manufacturing purchasing manager index (PMI) declined, the macro-economy was weak, the expected decline in plastic product output, the weak demand in the plasticizer market, and the downward pressure on DOTP increased. In the future, the demand is still weak, and the cost support is insufficient. It is expected that the DOTP price will weaken in a wide range.

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