According to the sample data monitored by the business club, the market price of domestic aggregated MDI at the beginning of the month was 18800 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 17260 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 8.19% during the month and a year-on-year decrease of 2.07%.

 

PVA 2699

According to the price monitoring of the trading society, in May 2022, 63 commodities in the list of commodity prices rose month on month in the chemical industry sector, of which 34 commodities rose by more than 5%, accounting for 31.2% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top 3 commodities were acetic acid (29.34%), isobutyraldehyde (20.47%) and phosphate rock (19.21%). A total of 43 commodities fell month on month, and 21 commodities fell by more than 5%, accounting for 19.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were formic acid (-47.24%), chloroform (-38.95%) and butanone (-24.88%). The average increase or decrease in this month was 1.01%.

 

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of May 31:

 

Region, Wanhua goods, Shanghai goods

North China and Shandong, 16700-16800 yuan / ton, 16200-16300 yuan / ton

East China, 16600 yuan / ton, 16300-16500 yuan / ton

South China, 16500-16600 yuan / ton, 16200-16300 yuan / ton

At the beginning of the month, the domestic aggregate MDI market was dominated by weak consolidation, the factory price was lowered, the mentality of the operators was difficult to boost, and the price fell rapidly in the early part of the week. After the middle of the week, the market price converged slightly, and the prices of some brands were firm. However, it is difficult to support the just needed small orders of the terminal, and the future mentality of the operators is still different.

 

In the first ten days of the month, the domestic aggregate MDI market was dominated by weak consolidation, with narrow falling space and less supply and demand information. The trade market can maintain its own shipping rhythm and talk about it in a single way. The terminal inquiry is still average, and it is mainly for small orders. The end of the month is approaching. Based on the factory’s upcoming listing and settlement prices, the operators are cautious in trading.

 

In late June, the domestic aggregate MDI market fell in shock, with little information about supply and demand, and different aftermarket mentality of the industry. There is no lack of low-cost pre-sale. Traders waited for the factory to announce the listing price in June and the settlement price in May. They mainly waited and waited.

 

In terms of raw materials, pure benzene: in May, the price of pure benzene in East China continued to rise due to tight supply, high external price and short selling. The downstream is difficult to bear the high cost, and the negative feedback leads to the expected reduction of the subsequent demand for pure benzene.

 

Comparison chart of pure benzene (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of Business Club:

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

In terms of aniline, the domestic aniline Market was first depressed and then increased. At the beginning of the month, although pure benzene was strong, aniline was profitable, and the downstream still had some resistance to high priced raw materials. In the latter half of the year, pure benzene was still relatively strong, but the Nanhua plant was restarted, the downstream purchase intention was less than that in the middle of the year, and the delivery of domestic aniline plants slowed down. However, at present, there is no inventory pressure in each factory. In order to balance the profit and loss, the factory offers have risen one after another. The downstream just needs to follow up, and the delivery of goods is OK.

 

Comparison chart of aniline (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business community:

 

In terms of enterprises, Yantai Wanhua’s 1.1 million T / a unit operates normally; Ningbo Wanhua 1.2 million T / a unit operates normally; The 600000 T / a unit of Shanghai kesichuang operates normally; Shanghai Huntsman 380000 T / a unit operates normally; Or postpone the maintenance to June to July; Shanghai BASF 220000 T / a unit operates normally; Or postpone the maintenance to June to July; Chongqing BASF 400000 T / a unit operates normally; The 80000t / a Dongcao Ruian plant operates normally.

 

With the gradual improvement of factory logistics and transportation in Shanghai, the market price may rise in the short term. In the future, the analysts of business club aggregate MDI expect that the domestic aggregate MDI market will be mainly sorted out.

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According to the data monitoring of business agency, the polyacrylamide commodity index on May 31 was 97.15, unchanged from yesterday, down 12.88% from the highest point of 111.51 in the cycle (2021-11-03), and up 17.20% from the lowest point of 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

Commodity prices: according to the data monitoring of business agency, the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12million, 10-30 ionic degree) in the domestic market in May was slightly increased from 15828.87 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to about 15900 yuan / ton in the middle of the month, and remained stable until the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.45%. The production of the enterprise is normal this month, and the market inventory is sufficient; The downstream demand continues to be average, and some parts are gradually weakened by the impact of transportation capacity and cost. The pressure on enterprises to ship goods is large, and the transaction is not easy.

 

Industry chain: according to the data of business agency, the mainstream quotation of upstream raw material acrylonitrile in the domestic market first rose slightly and then continued to decline in May. At the beginning of the month, it was reported as 11560 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, it was reported as 11460 yuan / ton, with a monthly decline of 0.87%. The highest price of this month was 11580 yuan / ton from July to October, and the lowest price was 11460 yuan / ton on May 31, with a maximum amplitude of 1.04%; In this month, the supply side of the domestic acrylonitrile industry remained loose. On the one hand, there was still pressure on the supply side and the downstream demand was stable; On the other hand, the cost weakened slightly, and it is expected that the price of acrylonitrile will be weak and fluctuated in a narrow range in the later period.

 

Acrylic acid, the raw material, rose first and then fell in May. The average price in East China at the beginning of the month was 14433.33 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 14566.67 yuan / ton, a monthly increase of 0.92%; Among them, the highest price point of this month was 14866.67 yuan / ton on the 16th in the middle of the month, and the lowest price point was 14566.67 yuan / ton on the 31st, with a monthly maximum amplitude of 2.02%. Propylene first rose and then fell in the first half of the month, with certain support from the cost side. Some units were shut down for maintenance, with low inventory, good export inquiries, gradual recovery of downstream demand, and moderate upward market negotiations. In the second half of the month, propylene fell, the cost side support weakened, the acrylic acid market operating rate increased, the supply side still had support, the downstream plants started in a depressed state, they were cautious about acrylic acid procurement, the demand side did not follow up, the market transaction atmosphere was light, the holders actively shipped, and the acrylic acid price fell. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may be stable in the short term.

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic LNG on May 31 was 6614 yuan / ton, down 8.24% from the price of 7208 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and up 84.06% compared with the same period last year. After the May Day holiday, the logistics recovered, and there was a certain demand for replenishment in the downstream. In addition, the good supply and demand of liquid plants in some regions promoted the slight increase of liquid prices in many places in China. However, since May 9, prices have stopped rising and turned down. At present, the demand in the off-season is weak, the receiving capacity of downstream users is general, in addition, the inlet gas price is lowered, the feed gas price is lowered, and the negative factors are dominant. The domestic liquid price is falling frequently, and the market continues to be weak. In May, the off-season of the market affected the demand. In addition, the price of feed gas was lowered, and the cost support further declined. As the Dragon Boat Festival is approaching, considering the poor logistics during the holiday and the reduction of prices by liquid plants, it is expected that the price of domestic liquefied natural gas will continue to decline.

 

Future forecast: the raw material cost is weak, the fuel price is falling, the production is normal, but the downstream demand is general, the market spot inventory is sufficient, and the transaction is not easy. It is expected that the polyacrylamide market will remain stable in the future, supplemented by small adjustments.

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