This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 12th, the price of isooctanol was 9333.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 7.41% compared to the price of 9000 yuan/ton on August 1st. In August, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell, downstream factories purchased according to demand, plasticizers were in low season, downstream enterprises had poor enthusiasm for raw material procurement, Shandong large factories sold at a discount, and the market transaction center shifted downwards, increasing the downward pressure on isooctanol.

The price of raw material propylene first rose and then fell in August

According to the Business Society’s propylene commodity market analysis system, as of August 12th, the price of propylene was 6850.75 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased by 3.69% compared to the price of 7113.25 yuan/ton on August 1st; Compared to August 5th, the price of propylene has continued to decline by 7135.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.99%. The weak consolidation of crude oil prices has weakened the cost support for propylene; Acrylic manufacturers are operating steadily, with sufficient supply and increased shipments, resulting in a decline in propylene prices.

Downstream plasticizer prices fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 12th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9111 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 4.09% compared to the DOP price of 9500 yuan/ton on August 1st at the beginning of the month. The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell. With the arrival of the hot and rainy season, PVC has entered a seasonal off-season in the industry. The low demand for plasticizers in China, coupled with reduced exports, has led to a decline in demand for plasticizers and a decrease in the willingness of plasticizer manufacturers to operate. As a result, the plasticizer market is in a low season, with manufacturers operating at low levels and weak follow-up on actual sales. The demand for plasticizers is poor, and there is significant downward pressure on plasticizers.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product, in terms of cost, the price of propylene first rose and then fell, while the cost of isooctanol decreased; In terms of demand, the plasticizer market is in the off-season, and the demand for isooctanol is weak. Overall, the stable supply and poor demand of isooctanol have led to a decrease in costs, and it is expected that the price of isooctanol will decline in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from August 2nd to 9th, the domestic ethanol price fell from 6007 yuan/ton to 5995 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.21% during the period and a year-on-year decline of 10.36%. The domestic ethanol market prices are running weakly and steadily, with the demand side continuing to be sluggish. Factories are experiencing a decline in shipping prices, but downstream purchasing power is limited, resulting in relatively flat trading volumes.

On the cost side, there is a strong atmosphere in the domestic corn market, and traders continue to lower prices in order to accelerate shipments, resulting in short-term downward pressure on corn. The cost of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side, there are significant differences in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions. Negative factors affecting the ethanol supply side.

On the demand side, the off-season of Baijiu consumption continues and orders are postponed; The short-term anhydrous procurement of methyl ethyl ester remains stable; Ethyl acetate will restart the Baichuan plant next week, and the Anhui Huayi plant is scheduled for maintenance, with little fluctuation in short-term operation. Short term ethanol demand is influenced by bearish factors.

In the future market forecast, the negative impact of cost is expected, while the market supply remains abundant, resulting in overall shipping pressure. Ethanol analysts from Shengyi Society predict that domestic ethanol prices will remain stable with a weak trend in the short term.

Since July, the butadiene rubber market has slightly declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 31, the butadiene rubber market price in East China was 15070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.57% from 15310 yuan/ton at the beginning of July. The price of raw material butadiene has dropped significantly, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has also decreased; Shunding rubber production continues to remain low; The downstream tire production has recently declined, and the procurement of butadiene rubber has been relatively light. As of July 31, the prices of butadiene rubber in Daqing, Qilu, Yangtze and other cities in East China were around 15000-15300 yuan/ton, and private butadiene rubber were around 14500-14900 yuan/ton.

Since July, the price of butadiene has significantly decreased, and the cost support for butadiene rubber has weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 31st, the price of butadiene was 12662 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.57% from 13700 yuan/ton at the beginning of July.

The construction of butadiene rubber in July remains at a low level.

On the demand side: Since mid July, downstream tire production has been declining, and in the short term, there is a certain drag on demand in the butadiene rubber market. Downstream inquiries are relatively cautious. As of July 24th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.4%.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene will significantly decrease, and the cost center of butadiene rubber will decrease; The production of butadiene rubber remains at a low level, and there is not much pressure on the market supply; Currently, downstream tire companies are experiencing a decline in production, which is unfavorable for the demand for butadiene rubber. Overall, the butadiene rubber market is expected to continue a weak and volatile trend in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 29th, the average price of epoxy propane enterprises was 8962.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.25% compared to the price on July 1st.

The market price of epichlorohydrin increased slightly in July. At the beginning of the month, the inventory pressure on the supply side was controllable, but downstream demand performance was mediocre, and the purchasing mentality was cautious and cautious, resulting in a weak market operation. With the narrow rebound of epoxy propane prices at a low level, market transactions are average and the market is stable. Entering the middle of the year, individual devices experienced fluctuations, downstream polyether new orders increased, the shipping atmosphere of enterprises improved, and the focus of negotiations in the epoxy propane market shifted upwards. In the latter half of the year, cost support still exists, supply side inventory is low, manufacturers have no pressure to raise prices, and downstream companies are mainly observing and following up appropriately.

Upstream propylene: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 29th, the reference price of propylene was 7098.25, a decrease of 0.49% compared to July 1st (7133.25). The price of raw material propylene fluctuated slightly in July, which still provides sufficient support for the epoxy propane market.

Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that there is currently no pressure on the supply side, and the market atmosphere is still acceptable. It is expected that the epoxy propane market will remain stable and strong in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

The price of ethylene glycol was relatively strong in the first half of July, and then began to decline slightly. Currently, the price is beginning to digest sideways. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of July 29th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4640 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.729% compared to the average price of 4561.67 yuan/ton in the East China market on July 1st. The prices in each region are as follows:

The spot price range for mainstream manufacturers in East China is 4600-4870 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4650 yuan/ton, and the mainstream manufacturers in Central China have a spot price range of 4550 yuan/ton for external execution; The spot price for mainstream manufacturers in North China is 4550-4700 yuan/ton.

On July 29, 2024, the spot basis of ethylene glycol at the port increased, while the contract basis was close to low and far from high. This week, the basis quotation slightly increased today, rising from+30 to+32 at the opening to+38 to+41; The base price for August is 42-46 yuan/ton, and for September it is 50-55 yuan/ton.

On July 29th, the price of coal to ethylene glycol remained basically stable, with a domestic price range of 4150-4330 yuan/ton, including tax.

Low inventory supports firm operation of ethylene glycol prices

In the early stage, the explicit inventory data of the port significantly decreased, driving the price of ethylene glycol from 4400 yuan/ton to over 4700 yuan/ton. Subsequently, the market was optimistic about imported cargo, and combined with the price hitting a new high for the year, the confidence of cargo holders loosened, and the price slightly fell back; According to recent port inventory data, the trend is still downward, and inventory is at a relatively low historical level. On July 29, 2024, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 566000 tons, a decrease of 136400 tons from the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China on July 1, which was 702400 tons.

The price of ethylene glycol fluctuates excessively in the short term

From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the driving effect of inventory factors on prices in the early stage is weakening under the expected increase in imports. Currently, inventory levels are relatively low, which provides some support for prices; In terms of demand, downstream polyester is reducing production to maintain prices, coupled with lower than expected terminal demand in the weaving industry, the industry is weak, and demand is weak.

From the perspective of changes in supply and demand at the near end, the increase in maintenance of synthesis gas plants in August and September may lead to an improvement in domestic supply and demand, and it is expected that the price of ethylene glycol will fluctuate more in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine has been consolidating this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 20480 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 20280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.98% and an increase of 5.62% compared to the same period last year. On July 21, the bromine commodity index was 71.16, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 70.98% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 20.77% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of bromine has been consolidating, with weak prices in the Shandong region. The mainstream market price is around 19500-20500 yuan/ton, and the decline in bromine prices has slowed down and gradually stabilized.

In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have remained stable, with an average market price of 1260 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week to the weekend, an increase of 48.24% compared to the same period last year. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand.

Supply and demand: Recently, some seawater bromine enterprises have been greatly affected by rainfall, while brine bromine is not significantly affected by weather, but has already begun maintenance due to weather conditions. The import volume of bromine to the port is gradually decreasing. The downstream flame retardant production of bromine is average, with poor demand, and the demand for agriculture and intermediates is average.

Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain weak in the near future, with sufficient supply and stable upstream sulfur prices. Downstream flame retardant production is average, while agricultural and intermediate demand is average, resulting in poor demand. The overall supply-demand game predicts that bromine prices may continue to operate weakly in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

Recently, the acrylic acid market has remained stable with a moderate to strong trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 19th, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 6587.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.19% compared to Monday’s price.

Cost aspect:

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on July 18th, the reference price of propylene was 7175.75, an increase of 0.6% compared to July 1st (7133.25). Recently, the price of raw material propylene has fluctuated narrowly, and the cost has continued to be supported by the acrylic acid market, which has supported manufacturers’ willingness to raise prices.

Supply and demand side:

Recently, some enterprises have been operating with reduced capacity, and the capacity utilization rate of the acrylic acid industry has declined compared to last week. Terminal demand is mainly based on consumption contracts, and downstream inquiries and purchases are on demand. The market atmosphere for new orders is average.

Market forecast:

The acrylic acid analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the short-term cost support is still relatively strong, but the demand side needs to be followed up appropriately, which may restrict the market growth. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will stabilize and operate in the short term, and more attention should be paid to changes in supply side equipment.

Aluminum prices are declining this week

Aluminum prices have decreased this week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market on July 11, 2024 was 20013.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.88% from the market average price of 20396.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week (July 7).

According to this month’s data, aluminum prices first rose and then fell, with a decrease of 0.58%.

Supply and demand fundamentals

On the supply side, there was a significant increase in ingot production in Qinghai, Guizhou and other regions in June. Based on current market expectations for aluminum alloys and feedback from enterprises, it is expected that domestic ingot production will continue to increase in July.

On the demand side: The domestic aluminum processing industry is mainly operating at a weak pace, with profile enterprises generally maintaining low operating rates and fewer industry orders. The industry orders for curtain wall panels and other sectors have significantly declined, and some small enterprises have reported a situation of production stoppage and reduction.

Inventory data: On July 11th, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China’s major markets was 776000 tons, an increase of 14000 tons from 762000 tons on July 1st. On July 11th, the total spot inventory of aluminum alloys in China’s major markets was 28300 tons, an increase of 1000 tons from July 4th.

Future expectations

In the short term, aluminum prices are fluctuating weakly.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the spot price of natural rubber in China has weakened recently (7.1-7.8). As of July 8th, the spot rubber market in China was around 14166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.69% from 14557 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

On the one hand, the supply of raw materials in domestic and foreign raw material production areas is gradually increasing, and the price of natural rubber raw materials has been falling all the way, causing cost drag on the domestic natural rubber market. As of July 8th, the price of Thai adhesive was 63.50 Thai baht/kg, a decrease from 70.45 Thai baht/kg at the end of June; As of the 8th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production area was around 13600 yuan/ton, significantly lower than 14500 yuan/ton at the end of June; The purchase price of all latex raw materials for glue production is around 13600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton from the end of June.

On the other hand, natural rubber inventories are slowly being depleted, resulting in a narrow consolidation of the overall market. As of July 7, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 493000 tons, a month on month decrease of 0.89%.

Downstream tire production is temporarily stable, with demand facing strong support from the natural rubber market. Downstream inquiries are resistant to high priced sources, resulting in a high price drop in natural rubber prices. As of July 7th, the operating load of semi steel tires for domestic tire enterprises is around 790%; The operating load of all steel tires for tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 6.2%.

Market forecast: The current domestic and foreign raw material supply is gradually increasing, and the high price of natural rubber raw materials is falling back; In addition, downstream tire companies are currently operating steadily and are cautious in purchasing high priced goods; Overall, the natural rubber market is expected to narrow down in the short term after a recent high decline.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda stabilized in May. At the beginning of the month, the average price in the Shandong market was 790 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price in the Shandong market was around 792 yuan/ton. The overall price increased by 0.25%, and the price decreased by 11.8% compared to the same period last year. On May 30th, the chlor alkali index was 1013 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 52.40% from the highest point in the cycle of 2128 points (2021-10-24), and an increase of 42.28% from the lowest point of 712 points on January 5th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

2、 Market analysis

According to survey data from Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda has stabilized this month. At present, the price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market quotation of 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda at around 860-950 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is currently stable, with a mainstream market quotation of around 710-820 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda.

In early May, the price of caustic soda stabilized and operated, with downstream alumina mainly being purchased on demand. There is no favorable support for the stable operation of liquid alkali prices. In mid to late May, the trading focus of the Shandong liquid alkali market increased, and the overall inventory of the market was not high. The domestic aluminum oxide prices in the downstream continued to be stable, medium, and strong. The prices of adhesive companies continue to remain stable, with limited market fluctuations.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 21st week of 2024 (5.20-5.24), there were a total of 3 products that rose, 1 product that fell, and 3 products that rose or fell to 0 on the chlor alkali industry price list. The main rising commodities include: light soda ash (1.91%), PVC (1.28%), and caustic soda (0.25%); The main commodities falling are baking soda (-0.84%). The average increase and decrease this week is 0.37%.

Business Society analysts believe that in recent times, caustic soda prices have been consolidating and operating. Low concentration alkali is constrained by downstream demand and its rise is relatively weak. Downstream demand is mainly cautious, with a wait-and-see attitude, and transactions are lukewarm and not hot. It is expected that the later stage or consolidation operation will be the main focus, depending on downstream market demand.